Christian Garin vs Martin Damm – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

21/04/2026 at 05:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • ATP - SINGLES: Madrid - Qualification, clay - Final

Match Stats

Aces
1213
Double Faults
25
1st serve percentage
66%60%
1st serve points won
77% (47/61)75% (45/60)
2nd serve points won
58% (18/31)48% (19/40)
Break Points Saved
5/74/7
1st return points won
30% (18/60)23% (14/61)
2nd return points won
53% (21/40)42% (13/31)
Break Points Converted
3/72/7
Winners
2741
Unforced errors
2547
Net points won
50% (3/6)71% (17/24)
Service Points Won
71% (65/92)64% (65/102)
Return Points Won
36% (37/102)29% (27/92)
Total Points Won
53% (102/194)47% (92/194)
Last 10 balls
46
Match points saved
60
Service games won
87% (13/15)80% (12/15)
Return games won
20% (3/15)13% (2/15)
Total games won
53% (16/30)47% (14/30)

Chances of winning


Christian Garin
67.6%
Martin Damm
32.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
62% 38%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60% 40%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Christian Garin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Christian Garin's performance.
  • Martin Damm has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Martin Damm might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Christian Garin than the current prediction. (-7.6%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Christian Garin that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Martin Damm than the current prediction. (+7.6%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Martin Damm could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Christian Garin - Martin Damm Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.4
    (1.51)

    2.91
    (2.46)
    6%
    (6.9%)
    What is the prediction for Christian Garin - Martin Damm?
  • Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Garin will win (votes: 5 - 50%). Damm will win (votes: 5 - 50%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Garin: 19%81%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • O/U 9.5 Games, 1st Set - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • Garin is ranked ATP: 85. Damm is ranked ATP: 126.
    • Both players are showing inconsistent performances lately.
    • In this match, Garin is a strong favorite.
    • Recently, the players have not faced each other.
    Latest results of Christian Garin
    Latest results of Martin Damm
    06.04.2026 Alex Rybakov - Martin Damm 2:1
    19.03.2026 Martin Damm - Jacob Fearnley Fearnley J. retired
    Draw
    Singles - Qualification

    Semi-finals
    1Trungelliti M. (1)Gojo B.2 : 0
    2Harris B.Merida Aguilar D. (13)0 : 2
    3Garin C. (2)Blanchet U. (Alt)2 : 0
    4Pellegrino A.Damm M. (24)0 : 2
    5Svajda Z. (3)Sakamoto R. (WC)0 : 2
    6Gea A.Gaubas V. (22)0 : 2
    7Prizmic D. (4)O'Connell C.2 : 1
    8Piros Z.Barrios Vera T. (21)2 : 0
    9Vukic A. (5)Llamas Ruiz P.0 : 2
    10Moller E.Gaston H. (18)2 : 0
    11Halys Q. (6)Faria J.1 : 2
    12Harris L.McDonald M. (23)2 : 0
    13Kypson P. (7)Kouame M. (WC)2 : 0
    14Travaglia S.Basilashvili N. (20)0 : 2
    15Vallejo D. (8)Martinez P.2 : 0
    16Rocha H.Choinski J. (19)2 : 1
    17Kovacevic A. (9)Echargui M.1 : 2
    18Budkov Kjaer N.Maestrelli F. (16)2 : 0
    19van Assche L. (10)Dedura D. (WC)0 : 2
    20Blanch Dar. (WC)Bonzi B. (15)0 : 2
    21Wu Y. (11)Dhamne M. (WC)2 : 0
    22Virtanen O.Droguet T. (17)1 : 2
    23Hijikata R. (12)Rodesch C.0 : 2
    24Lajovic D.Arnaldi M. (14)2 : 1

    Final
    1Trungelliti M. (1)Merida Aguilar D. (13)
    2Garin C. (2)Damm M. (24)1 : 2
    3Sakamoto R.Gaubas V. (22)
    4Prizmic D. (4)Piros Z.
    5Llamas Ruiz P.Moller E.0 : 2
    6Faria J.Harris L.
    7Kypson P. (7)Basilashvili N. (20)
    8Vallejo D. (8)Rocha H.
    9Echargui M.Budkov Kjaer N.
    10Dedura D.Bonzi B. (15)
    11Wu Y. (11)Droguet T. (17)
    12Rodesch C.Lajovic D.