Result
2:1
07/12/2025 at 11:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Bundesliga - Round 16
- Referee: Weinberger J. (Aut)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Austria | Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1 |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Slovakia | Arena sport 1 |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.26 | 1.19 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 46% | 54% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 65% (191/295) | 66% (234/355) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.26 | 1.19 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.65 | 0.82 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 13 | 6 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 47 | 15 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 17 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 65% (191/295) | 66% (234/355) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 39% (20/51) | 42% (35/83) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 50% (61/123) | 40% (39/97) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 38% (9/24) | 17% (2/12) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.65 | 0.89 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 24 | 32 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 17 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 74% (17/23) | 47% (7/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 64 | 66 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 28 | 34 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 11 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.82 | 2.65 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.18 | 0.65 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 7', 1 - 0, Mitchell J. ⚽, Horvat T. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 64', Grgic L. ↓, Jatta S. ↑,
- 67', 2 - 0, Malone M. ⚽, Rozga F. (A),
- 70', Schriebl T. ↓, Frieser D. ↑,
- 75', Koch T. 🟨,
- 81', Rozga F. ↓, Hodl J. ↑,
- 81', Gorenc Stankovic J. ↓, Chukwuani T. ↑,
- 82', Oberleitner Y. ↓, Kreuzriegler M. ↑,
- 83', Schiestl T. ↓, Cipot T. ↑,
- 84', Maderner D. ↓, Hofleitner A. ↑,
- 85', Malone M. 🟨,
- 87', Mitchell J. ↓, Haider G. ↑,
- 88', Malone M. ↓, Kayombo A. ↑,
- 90+5', Fofana S. ↓, Lichtenberger C. ↑,
- 90+8', Chukwuani T. 🟨,
- 90+8', Hofleitner A. 🟨,
- 90+10', 2 - 1, Lichtenberger C. ⚽, Cipot T. (A),
Chances of winning
Sturm Graz
51.4% | Draw
27.7% | Grazer AK
20.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Sturm Graz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.1%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sturm Graz's form might have worsened.Grazer AK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Grazer AK's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sturm Graz than the current prediction. (+10%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sturm Graz, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grazer AK than the current prediction. (-6.1%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Grazer AK, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Sturm Graz - Grazer AK Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.85 ↑
(1.46) |
3.42 ↓
(4.18) |
4.53 ↓
(6.45) |
5.5%
(8.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Sturm Graz - Grazer AK?
Users Predictions:
8 users predict this event. Sturm will win (votes: 6 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sturm: 45% – 100%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- DNB - Grazer (3.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Grazer (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga (Championship Group: ) and 11 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation Group: )).
- Sturm is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Grazer is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Grazer may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Sturm is a strong favorite.
- There will not play in Sturm: Aiwu E.
(Red Card)
Lavalee D.
(Injury)
- There will not play in Grazer: Italiano J.
(Calf Injury)
Jano Z.
(Injury)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sturm won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 14:5. (average 2.8:1).
- Including home match between the teams, Sturm won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2.
How many head-to-head matches has Sturm Graz won against Grazer AK?
Sturm Graz has won 5 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Grazer AK won against Sturm Graz?
Grazer AK has won 0 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Sturm Graz - Grazer AK were as follows:
30.08.2025
Grazer AK
-
Sturm Graz
0:3
09.03.2025
Grazer AK
-
Sturm Graz
1:2
19.10.2024
Sturm Graz
-
Grazer AK
5:2
02.11.2023
Grazer AK
-
Sturm Graz
2:3
19.10.2022
Grazer AK
-
Sturm Graz
0:1
Latest results of Sturm Graz
Latest results of Grazer AK
Austrian Bundesliga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Salzburg ✔ | 20 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 42:25 | 17 | 36 |
| 2 | Sturm Graz | 20 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 29:24 | 5 | 34 |
| 3 | LASK | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 27:27 | 0 | 33 |
| 4 | Austria Vienna | 20 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 30:28 | 2 | 32 |
| 5 | Hartberg | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 28:23 | 5 | 31 |
| 6 | SK Rapid | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 24:24 | 0 | 29 |
| 7 | Altach | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 21:20 | 1 | 28 |
| 8 | Ried | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 25:26 | -1 | 28 |
| 9 | Wolfsberger AC | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 28:27 | 1 | 25 |
| 10 | Tirol | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 26:28 | -2 | 25 |
| 11 | Grazer AK ✔ | 20 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 20:33 | -13 | 17 |
| 12 | BW Linz ✔ | 20 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 17:32 | -15 | 14 |
Promotion ~ Bundesliga (Championship Group: )
Bundesliga (Relegation Group: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Salzburg is Qualified for Bundesliga (Championship Group )
Grazer AK is Bundesliga (Relegation Group )
BW Linz is Bundesliga (Relegation Group )
