Result
2:2
30/08/2025 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Championship - Round 4
- Referee: Doughty L. (Eng)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Usa | Paramount+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.77 | 1.48 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 69% | 31% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (400/492) | 60% (132/219) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.77 | 1.48 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.36 | 1.21 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 13 | 6 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 40 | 12 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (400/492) | 60% (132/219) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 44% (24/55) | 27% (16/59) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 75% (157/208) | 48% (39/82) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 19% (5/26) | 29% (4/14) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.83 | 0.39 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 22 | 16 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 60% (6/10) | 55% (12/22) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 55 | 52 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 23 | 41 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.21 | 2.36 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.79 | 0.36 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 33', 1 - 0, Greaves J. ⚽,
- 35', Elder C. 🟨,
- 40', McAteer K. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 2)
- 50', 1 - 1, Morris C. (Pen),
- 54', Hirst G. 🟨,
- 55', Adams E. 🟨,
- 67', Travis L. 🟨,
- 68', Chaplin C. ↓, Szmodics S. ↑,
- 68', McAteer K. ↓, Clarke J. ↑,
- 68', Hirst G. ↓, Akpom Ch. ↑,
- 70', 1 - 2, Brewster R. ⚽,
- 75', Clark B. 🟨,
- 78', Cajuste J. ↓, Taylor J. ↑,
- 81', Travis L. ↓, Ozoh D. ↑,
- 81', Brewster R. ↓, Jackson K. ↑,
- 85', Sanderson D. 🟨,
- 86', Davis L. ↓, Azon I. ↑,
- 90+1', Clark B. ↓, Weimann A. ↑,
- 90+5', Johnston M. ↓, Nyambe R. ↑,
- 90+6', Elder C. ↓, Batth D. ↑,
- 90+14', Ozoh D. 🟨,
- 90+15', Morris C. 🟨,
- 90+16', 2 - 2, Clarke J. (Pen),
Chances of winning
Ipswich Town
61.7% | Draw
24.5% | Derby County
13.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ipswich Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ipswich Town than the current prediction. (-6.9%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ipswich Town that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+4.5%)
Ipswich Town - Derby County Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.54 ↓
(1.6) |
3.86 ↓
(3.96) |
6.77 ↑
(5.61) |
5.6%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Ipswich Town - Derby County?
Users Predictions:
14 users predict this event. Ipswich will win (votes: 12 - 85.7%). Derby will win (votes: 1 - 7.1%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ipswich: 67.4% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Ipswich (votes: 2 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ipswich won 2.
- Ipswich has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Derby is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Derby may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Ipswich has had a series of away games.
- In this match, Ipswich is the obvious favorite.
- There will not play in Ipswich: Al Hamadi A.
(Calf Injury)
Burns W.
(Knee Injury)
Clarke H.
(Inactive)
Townsend C.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Derby: Agyemang P.
(Hernia)
Beck O.
(Lacking Match Fitness)
Blackett-Taylor C.
(Hamstring Injury)
Ebuka C.
(Injury)
Langas S.
(Knee Injury)
Nelson C.
(Knee Injury)
Salvesen L.
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Ipswich won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 17:18. (average 1:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Ipswich won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 6:11. (average 0.8:1.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Ipswich Town won against Derby County?
Ipswich Town has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Derby County won against Ipswich Town?
Derby County has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Ipswich Town - Derby County were as follows:
01.04.2023
Derby County
-
Ipswich Town
0:2
21.10.2022
Ipswich Town
-
Derby County
1:0
Latest results of Ipswich Town
Latest results of Derby County
English League Championship Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Coventry | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 31:8 | 23 | 25 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 15:7 | 8 | 24 |
| 3 | Millwall | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 13:13 | 0 | 20 |
| 4 | Bristol City | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 19:11 | 8 | 19 |
| 5 | Charlton | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 13:9 | 4 | 18 |
| 6 | Stoke | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 12:8 | 4 | 18 |
| 7 | Hull | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 19:19 | 0 | 18 |
| 8 | QPR | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 15:16 | -1 | 18 |
| 9 | Leicester | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 15:11 | 4 | 17 |
| 10 | West Brom | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 12:13 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 | Preston | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 12:10 | 2 | 16 |
| 12 | Watford | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 13:13 | 0 | 15 |
| 13 | Birmingham | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 11:14 | -3 | 15 |
| 14 | Ipswich | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 16:13 | 3 | 13 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 15:16 | -1 | 13 |
| 16 | Swansea | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 10:11 | -1 | 13 |
| 17 | Portsmouth | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 10:12 | -2 | 13 |
| 18 | Southampton | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 12:15 | -3 | 12 |
| 19 | Derby | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 12:16 | -4 | 11 |
| 20 | Oxford Utd | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11:14 | -3 | 9 |
| 21 | Sheffield Utd | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 7:17 | -10 | 9 |
| 22 | Norwich | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11:16 | -5 | 8 |
| 23 | Blackburn | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 8:16 | -8 | 7 |
| 24 | Sheffield Wed | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9:23 | -14 | 6 |
Promotion ~ Premier League
Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Relegation ~ League One
