Result
1:1
27/02/2026 at 03:35 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- A-League - Round 19
- Referee: King A. (Aus)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Asia | SPOTV Asia |
 Australia | Paramount+ |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Germany | Sportdigital FUSSBALL |
 Hong-kong | M Plus Live, myTV SUPER |
 India | FanCode, FanCode, Vision+ |
 Indonesia | SPOTV, Vidio |
 Malaysia | Astro Go |
 Mongolia | SPOTV |
 New-zealand | Sky Sport 4 |
 Philippines | SPOTV |
 South-korea | SPOTV |
 Switzerland | Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
 Thailand | SPOTV |
 United-kingdom | Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 1 |
 Usa | ESPN App, ESPN+ |
 Vietnam | SPOTV |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.85 | 1.78 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 45% | 55% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (276/355) | 80% (362/451) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.85 | 1.78 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.46 | 0.82 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 5 | 0 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 12 | 6 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 27 | 13 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (276/355) | 80% (362/451) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 40% (17/42) | 28% (13/46) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 66% (96/145) | 64% (53/83) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 13% (2/16) | 25% (2/8) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.21 | 0.95 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 21 | 28 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 7 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 60% (12/20) | 61% (11/18) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 53 | 40 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 15 | 32 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 13 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.82 | 1.46 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.18 | 0.46 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 26', 1 - 0, Jelacic K. ⚽, Mata J. (A),
- 35', 1 - 1, Dukuly Y. ⚽,
- 42', Roderick 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 55', Genreau D. ↓, Stella X. ↑,
- 61', Nduka C. 🟨,
- 63', Jelacic K. 🟨,
- 66', Nduka C. ↓, Vergos N. ↑,
- 66', Jelacic K. ↓, Grimaldi M. ↑,
- 66', Mata J. ↓, Clarismario ↑,
- 67', Alagich E. 🟨,
- 71', Muniz J. ↓, Duzel L. ↑,
- 77', Jovanovic L. ↓, Burkitt B. ↑,
- 79', Velupillay N. ↓, Piscopo R. ↑,
- 85', Yull J. ↓, Folami B. ↑,
- 86', Dukuly Y. ↓, Madanha P. ↑,
- 89', Vergos N. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Melbourne Victory
58.7% | Draw
21.1% | Adelaide United
20.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Melbourne Victory has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)Adelaide United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne Victory than the current prediction. (+2.7%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Adelaide United than the current prediction. (-1%)
Melbourne Victory - Adelaide United Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.61 ↓
(1.65) |
4.43 ↑
(4) |
4.64 ↑
(4.35) |
6.2%
(8.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.50
What is the prediction for Melbourne Victory - Adelaide United?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.75 - Melbourne Victory (1.71) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 4 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -1 - Adelaide (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Melbourne Victory will win
(18 of 20 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.85% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Melbourne Victory will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Melbourne Victory (votes: 4 - 80%). Adelaide (votes: 1 - 20%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals))
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne Victory won 3.
- Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.
- In this match, Melbourne Victory is a strong favorite.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Melbourne Victory won 9 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 27:26. (average 1.4:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne Victory won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:12. (average 1.6:1.2).
How many head-to-head matches has Melbourne Victory won against Adelaide United?
Melbourne Victory has won 5 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Adelaide United won against Melbourne Victory?
Adelaide United has won 3 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Melbourne Victory - Adelaide United were as follows:
17.01.2026
Adelaide United
-
Melbourne Victory
2:1
13.12.2025
Melbourne Victory
-
Adelaide United
2:1
29.03.2025
Melbourne Victory
-
Adelaide United
5:3
18.01.2025
Adelaide United
-
Melbourne Victory
3:2
21.09.2024
Melbourne Victory
-
Adelaide United
1:0
Latest results of Melbourne Victory
Latest results of Adelaide United
Australian A-League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Newcastle Jets | 23 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 48:36 | 12 | 43 |
| 2 | Auckland FC | 23 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 38:24 | 14 | 40 |
| 3 | Adelaide United | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 40:33 | 7 | 36 |
| 4 | Melbourne Victory | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 38:29 | 9 | 35 |
| 5 | Sydney FC | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 29:23 | 6 | 34 |
| 6 | Melbourne City | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 27:29 | -2 | 32 |
| 7 | Macarthur FC | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 31:38 | -7 | 31 |
| 8 | Wellington Phoenix | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 34:41 | -7 | 30 |
| 9 | Central Coast Mariners | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 34:38 | -4 | 29 |
| 10 | Brisbane Roar | 24 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 24:31 | -7 | 26 |
| 11 | Perth Glory | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 27:37 | -10 | 24 |
| 12 | WS Wanderers | 23 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 26:37 | -11 | 21 |
Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
