AFC Wimbledon vs Notts County – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football English League Two AFC Wimbledon - Notts County
Result
1:0
17/05/2025 at 07:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • League Two - Play Offs - Semi-finals
  • Referee: Smith L. (Eng)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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swedenSwedenViaplay, V Sport Extra
turkeyTurkeyExxen
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomDons TV, Sky Go, Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports+, Sky Ultra
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaParamount+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.950.81
Ball Possession
27%73%
Total shots
814
Shots on target
41
Big Chances
10
Corner Kicks
21
Passes
56% (114/204)86% (483/564)
Yellow Cards
23
Expected Goals (xG)
0.950.81
xG on target (xGOT)
0.910.02
Total shots
814
Shots on target
41
Shots off target
09
Blocked Shots
44
Shots inside the Box
64
Shots outside the Box
210
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
10
Corner Kicks
21
Touches in opposition box
1119
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
50
Free Kicks
1112
Passes
56% (114/204)86% (483/564)
Long passes
37% (23/62)43% (24/56)
Passes in final third
49% (50/102)76% (120/157)
Crosses
38% (3/8)20% (3/15)
Expected assists (xA)
0.760.73
Throw-ins
2627
Fouls
1211
Tackles
68% (23/34)56% (9/16)
Duels won
7253
Clearances
2923
Interceptions
24
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
13
xGOT faced
0.020.91
Goals prevented
0.02-0.09

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 8', 1 - 0, Neufville J. , Lewis J. (A),
  • 25', Macari L. 🟨,
  • 32', Harbottle R. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 47', Harbottle R. , Ogundere I. ,
  • 54', Austin S. , Jarvis W. ,
  • 63', Browne M. , Kelly J. ,
  • 70', Traore M. , Robertson S. ,
  • 70', Grant C. , Morias J. ,
  • 72', Robertson S. 🟨,
  • 78', Johnson R. 🟨,
  • 81', Stevens M. , Sasu A. ,
  • 82', Hippolyte M. , Maycock C. ,
  • 90', Platt M. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


AFC Wimbledon
39.2%
Draw
30.3%
Notts County
30.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
41.6% 29% 29.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.7% 28.9% 29.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • AFC Wimbledon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)
  • Notts County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for AFC Wimbledon than the current prediction. (+2.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Notts County than the current prediction. (-1.2%)
  • AFC Wimbledon - Notts County Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.4
    (2.28)
    3.1
    (3.27)
    3.09
    (3.23)
    6.3%
    (5.5%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
  • What is the prediction for AFC Wimbledon - Notts County?
  • Users Predictions: AFC Wimbledon will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 44.94%100%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • 1st leg result: 1-0. 2nd leg.
    • Notts County is Qualified for League Two (Play Offs Semi~finals)
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Wimbledon won 4.
    • Recent performances by Wimbledon have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Notts County is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • Wimbledon will hold a modest advantage in this match.
    • In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Wimbledon won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:4. (average 1.9:0.6).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Wimbledon won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:3. (average 2.7:1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between AFC Wimbledon - Notts County were as follows:
    10.05.2025 Notts County - AFC Wimbledon 0:1
    08.03.2025 AFC Wimbledon - Notts County 2:0
    19.10.2024 Notts County - AFC Wimbledon 1:0
    09.03.2024 Notts County - AFC Wimbledon 0:2
    25.11.2023 AFC Wimbledon - Notts County 4:2
    Latest results of AFC Wimbledon
    Latest results of Notts County
    English League Two Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Gillingham743011:5615
    2Swindon750214:9515
    3Walsall75027:4315
    4Grimsby742113:8514
    5Bromley734012:7513
    6Crewe741211:7413
    7Chesterfield741211:9213
    8Salford741210:8213
    9MK Dons732212:6611
    10Notts Co732212:9311
    11Fleetwood73229:9011
    12Cambridge Utd73138:7110
    13Bristol Rovers73137:8-110
    14Tranmere622210:738
    15Harrogate72237:9-28
    16Colchester71427:8-17
    17Oldham71424:5-17
    18Barnet72146:10-47
    19Barrow72055:9-46
    20Crawley71245:11-65
    21Shrewsbury71245:13-85
    22Newport71157:12-54
    23Cheltenham71153:12-94
    24Accrington60333:7-43

          Promotion ~ League One
          Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
          Relegation ~ National League