Result
0:3
11/04/2026 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Eredivisie - Round 30
- Referee: van den Kerkhof M. (Ned)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | SupeSport ESPN 2 |
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Belgium | Play Sports 1, Play Sports 3 |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 5 |
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 2, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Bulgaria | Ring, Voyo |
 Canada | Sportsnet+, Sportsnet World |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 Colombia | Disney+ |
 Cyprus | Cablenet Sports 3, Cablenet Sports 3 |
 Germany | Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2 |
 India | Eurosport, JioTV app |
 Indonesia | Vidio |
 Israel | Sport 4 |
 Italy | Como TV |
 Japan | U-NEXT |
 Kenya | Gotv |
 Mexico | Disney+, ESPN 3 |
 Netherlands | Canal+, ESPN 2 |
 Nigeria | SupeSport ESPN 2 |
 North-central-america | Disney+ Caribbean |
 North-macedonia | MaxTV GO |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Poland | Polsat Sport Premium 1 |
 Portugal | DAZN 2, DAZN / App |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 3 |
 Slovakia | Arena sport 2 |
 Slovenia | Sport TV3 |
 South-africa | SupeSport ESPN 2 |
 Spain | GolStadium |
 Turkey | S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 3 |
 United-kingdom | Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | ESPN App, ESPN+ |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
 World | Triller TV+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.20 | 1.92 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 40% | 60% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 18 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (250/304) | 87% (429/495) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.20 | 1.92 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.47 | 2.46 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 18 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 7 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 10 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 20 | 21 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (250/304) | 87% (429/495) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 44% (21/48) | 34% (14/41) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 66% (54/82) | 80% (106/133) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 16% (5/32) | 33% (3/9) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.59 | 1.50 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 12 | 28 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 4 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 65% (17/26) | 41% (12/29) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 47 | 57 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 17 | 27 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.46 | 0.47 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.54 | 0.47 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 2)
- 16', 0 - 1, Godts M. ⚽, Mokio J. (A),
- 17', 0 - 2, Berghuis S. ⚽, Weghorst W. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Bruns T. ↓, Cestic S. ↑,
- 47', 0 - 3, Berghuis S. ⚽, Gloukh O. (A),
- 54', Unuvar N. ↓, Kulenovic L. ↑,
- 55', van Gilst T. ↓, Ahlstrand E. ↑,
- 55', Wieckhoff J. ↓, van der Kust D. ↑,
- 65', Mesik I. ↓, Ould Chikh W. ↑,
- 66', Itakura K. ↓, Tomiyasu T. ↑,
- 74', Ould Chikh W. 🟨,
- 76', Van Hoorenbeeck A. 🟨,
- 79', Tomiyasu T. 🟥,
- 84', Gloukh O. ↓, Steur S. ↑,
- 84', Berghuis S. ↓, Edvardsen O. ↑,
- 87', Godts M. ↓, Bouwman A. ↑,
Chances of winning
Heracles Almelo
17.8% | Draw
20.7% | Ajax
61.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Heracles Almelo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)Ajax has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Heracles Almelo than the current prediction. (-1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+0.6%)
Heracles Almelo - Ajax Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
5.34 ↓
(5.38) |
4.59 ↑
(4.16) |
1.54 ↓
(1.54) |
5.3%
(7.4%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
What is the prediction for Heracles Almelo - Ajax?
Users Predictions:
14 users predict this event. Heracles will win (votes: 1 - 7.1%). Ajax will win (votes: 11 - 78.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ajax: 57.1% – 100%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Ajax will win (2 of 2 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Heracles won 0.
- Heracles is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Ajax's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- In this match, Ajax is a strong favorite.
- There will not play in Heracles: Benita M.
(Yellow Cards)
Reine-Adelaide J.
(Knee Injury)
de Keijzer F.
(Inactive)
te Wierik M.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Ajax: Jaros V.
(Knee Injury)
Regeer Y.
(Hamstring Injury)
Zinchenko O.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Heracles: Hrustic A.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Ajax: Fitz-Jim K.
(Inactive)
Tomiyasu T.
(Hamstring Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Heracles won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 13:45. (average 0.7:2.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Heracles won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 9:17. (average 0.9:1.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Heracles Almelo won against Ajax?
Heracles Almelo has won 0 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Ajax won against Heracles Almelo?
Ajax has won 5 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Heracles Almelo - Ajax were as follows:
24.08.2025
Ajax
-
Heracles Almelo
2:0
16.02.2025
Ajax
-
Heracles Almelo
4:0
20.10.2024
Heracles Almelo
-
Ajax
3:4
27.01.2024
Heracles Almelo
-
Ajax
2:4
12.08.2023
Ajax
-
Heracles Almelo
4:1
Latest results of Heracles Almelo
Draw
Relegation - Play Offs1/8-finals| 1 | Roda | Waalwijk | 1 : 1 |
| 2 | Bye | Willem II | |
| 3 | Den Bosch | Almere City | 2 : 3 |
| 4 | Bye | De Graafschap | |
Quarter-finalsSemi-finalsFinal
