Result
1:0
05/12/2025 at 11:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Premier League - Round 18
- Referee: Ivanov S. (Rus)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 1 |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go |
 Kosovo | Arena Premium 4 |
 Russia | Match! Premier, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 4 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.31 | 1.23 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 51% | 49% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 0 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 75% (257/344) | 74% (237/320) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.31 | 1.23 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.02 | 0.17 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 0 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 20 | 39 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 19 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 75% (257/344) | 74% (237/320) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 47% (34/72) | 41% (22/54) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 61% (77/127) | 67% (96/144) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 11% (1/9) | 35% (7/20) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.35 | 1.52 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 27 | 23 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 19 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 78% (14/18) | 63% (10/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 54 | 51 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 34 | 26 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.17 | 1.02 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.17 | 0.02 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 63', Guzina G. ↓, Savelyev M. ↑,
- 63', Samorodov M. ↓, Mansilla B. ↑,
- 63', Sadulaev L. ↓, Keliano M. ↑,
- 64', Khotulev D. 🟨,
- 68', Zare M. 🟨,
- 71', 1 - 0, Cacintura E. ⚽, Mansilla B. (A),
- 76', Moufi F. ↓, Poroykov S. ↑,
- 76', Chichinadze A. ↓, Kasimov A. ↑,
- 76', Kvekveskiri I. ↓, Bolotov E. ↑,
- 83', Rybchinskiy D. ↓, Ignatjev I. ↑,
- 83', Ndong O. ↓, Ghandri N. ↑,
- 86', Savelyev M. 🟨,
- 90+2', Keliano M. ↓, Gadio P. ↑,
Chances of winning
Akhmat Grozny
46.2% | Draw
26.8% | Orenburg
27% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Akhmat Grozny has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Akhmat Grozny's form might have worsened.Orenburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Orenburg's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Akhmat Grozny than the current prediction. (+8.4%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Akhmat Grozny, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orenburg than the current prediction. (-7.3%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Orenburg, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Akhmat Grozny - Orenburg Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.06 ↑
(1.75) |
3.54 ↑
(3.5) |
3.52 ↓
(4.6) |
5.1%
(7.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Akhmat Grozny - Orenburg?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Akhmat Grozny will win
(9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Akhmat Grozny will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 10 and 14 in the zone Premier League (Relegation)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Akhmat won 1.
- Akhmat is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Orenburg has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Akhmat may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Akhmat is considered a favorite.
- There will not play in Akhmat: El Mahraoui A.
(Muscle Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Akhmat won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 31:26. (average 1.6:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Akhmat won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:7. (average 1.8:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Akhmat Grozny won against Orenburg?
Akhmat Grozny has won 4 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Orenburg won against Akhmat Grozny?
Orenburg has won 6 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Akhmat Grozny - Orenburg were as follows:
30.09.2025
Akhmat Grozny
-
Orenburg
0:1
22.08.2025
Orenburg
-
Akhmat Grozny
2:2
13.08.2025
Orenburg
-
Akhmat Grozny
2:1
08.12.2024
Akhmat Grozny
-
Orenburg
1:0
28.07.2024
Orenburg
-
Akhmat Grozny
0:0
Latest results of Akhmat Grozny
Latest results of Orenburg
Russian Premier League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Krasnodar | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 39:13 | 26 | 43 |
| 2 | Zenit | 19 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 35:12 | 23 | 42 |
| 3 | Lokomotiv Moscow | 19 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 41:24 | 17 | 40 |
| 4 | CSKA Moscow | 19 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 30:18 | 12 | 36 |
| 5 | Baltika | 19 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 24:8 | 16 | 35 |
| 6 | Spartak Moscow | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 29:25 | 4 | 32 |
| 7 | Akhmat Grozny | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 23:25 | -2 | 25 |
| 8 | Dynamo Moscow | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 31:26 | 5 | 24 |
| 9 | Rubin Kazan | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 17:24 | -7 | 23 |
| 10 | Akron Togliatti | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 22:28 | -6 | 21 |
| 11 | FK Rostov | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 16:22 | -6 | 21 |
| 12 | Dynamo Makhachkala | 19 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 10:22 | -12 | 18 |
| 13 | Krylya Sovetov | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 20:37 | -17 | 17 |
| 14 | Orenburg | 19 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 19:29 | -10 | 15 |
| 15 | Pari NN | 19 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 13:30 | -17 | 14 |
| 16 | Sochi | 19 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 18:44 | -26 | 9 |
Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation ~ FNL
