Result
0:1
18/04/2026 at 05:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Premier League - Round 25
- Referee: Chistyakov A. (Rus)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Asia | Q Football Asia |
 Belarus | Belarus 5 |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 3 |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go |
 Russia | Match! Premier, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.68 | 1.38 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 41% | 59% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 58% (136/233) | 77% (254/329) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.68 | 1.38 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.21 | 1.09 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 11 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 8 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 20 | 34 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 19 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 58% (136/233) | 77% (254/329) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 31% (20/64) | 57% (36/63) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 45% (49/108) | 69% (70/101) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 30% (3/10) | 5% (1/20) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.46 | 1.31 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 15 | 17 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 20 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 60% (9/15) | 69% (9/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 53 | 60 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 32 | 25 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.09 | 0.21 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.09 | 0.21 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 42', Guzina G. 🟨,
- 43', Karpukas A. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 54', Karpukas A. ↓, Vera L. ↑,
- 60', Bakaev Z. 🟨,
- 61', Guzina G. ↓, Alexandre Jesus ↑,
- 64', Bakaev Z. ↓, Chevardin D. ↑,
- 70', 0 - 1, Batrakov A. ⚽, Silyanov A. (A),
- 71', Du Queiroz ↓, Kul R. ↑,
- 72', Puebla D. ↓, Rybchinskiy D. ↑,
- 80', Bolotov E. ↓, Golybin R. ↑,
- 80', Moufi F. ↓, Poroykov S. ↑,
- 89', Palacios J. 🟨,
- 90', Ovsyannikov B. 🟨,
- 90', Vorobyev D. 🟨,
- 90+3', Lucas Fasson 🟨,
Chances of winning
Orenburg
28.9% | Draw
24.8% | Lokomotiv Moscow
46.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Orenburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)Lokomotiv Moscow has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orenburg than the current prediction. (-2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lokomotiv Moscow than the current prediction. (+2.9%)
Orenburg - Lokomotiv Moscow Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.32 ↓
(3.37) |
3.86 ↑
(3.82) |
2.07 ↑
(1.88) |
4.4%
(9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Orenburg - Lokomotiv Moscow?
Users Predictions:
Lokomotiv Moscow will win
(6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation ~ FNL and 3).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Orenburg won 0.
- Orenburg has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Lokomotiv's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Lokomotiv is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Lokomotiv: Komlichenko N.
(Yellow Cards)
- There are questionable in Lokomotiv: Pinyaev S.
(Muscle Injury)
- In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Orenburg won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 16:35. (average 1:2.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Orenburg won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 10:19. (average 1.3:2.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Orenburg won against Lokomotiv Moscow?
Orenburg has won 1 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Lokomotiv Moscow won against Orenburg?
Lokomotiv Moscow has won 7 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Orenburg - Lokomotiv Moscow were as follows:
09.11.2025
Lokomotiv Moscow
-
Orenburg
1:0
03.05.2025
Lokomotiv Moscow
-
Orenburg
1:1
01.10.2024
Lokomotiv Moscow
-
Orenburg
2:1
14.09.2024
Orenburg
-
Lokomotiv Moscow
2:4
13.08.2024
Orenburg
-
Lokomotiv Moscow
2:3
Latest results of Orenburg
Latest results of Lokomotiv Moscow
Russian Premier League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Krasnodar | 27 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 55:21 | 34 | 60 |
| 2 | Zenit | 27 | 17 | 8 | 2 | 47:17 | 30 | 59 |
| 3 | Lokomotiv Moscow | 27 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 51:35 | 16 | 49 |
| 4 | Spartak Moscow | 27 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 44:36 | 8 | 48 |
| 5 | Baltika | 27 | 11 | 13 | 3 | 37:17 | 20 | 46 |
| 6 | CSKA Moscow | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 38:28 | 10 | 45 |
| 7 | Rubin Kazan | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 25:26 | -1 | 39 |
| 8 | Dynamo Moscow | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 46:37 | 9 | 38 |
| 9 | Akhmat Grozny | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 31:37 | -6 | 32 |
| 10 | Akron Togliatti | 27 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 33:45 | -12 | 27 |
| 11 | FK Rostov | 27 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 20:29 | -9 | 27 |
| 12 | Orenburg | 27 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 27:38 | -11 | 26 |
| 13 | Krylya Sovetov | 27 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 29:47 | -18 | 26 |
| 14 | Dynamo Makhachkala | 27 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 17:34 | -17 | 24 |
| 15 | Pari NN | 27 | 6 | 4 | 17 | 23:44 | -21 | 22 |
| 16 | Sochi | 27 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 24:56 | -32 | 18 |
Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation ~ FNL
