Albirex Niigata vs Kawasaki Frontale – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

16/08/2025 at 06:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Denka Big Swan Stadium (Niigata).

J1 League - Round 26
Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.44	1.31
Ball Possession
50%	50%
Total shots
15	12
Shots on target
4	2
Big Chances
1	1
Corner Kicks
5	6
Passes
80% (323/406)	82% (326/398)
Yellow Cards
2	2
Expected Goals (xG)
1.44	1.31
xG on target (xGOT)
1.80	1.13
Total shots
15	12
Shots on target
4	2
Shots off target
5	8
Blocked Shots
6	2
Shots inside the Box
7	10
Shots outside the Box
8	2
Hit the Woodwork
0	1
Big Chances
1	1
Corner Kicks
5	6
Touches in opposition box
19	26
Accurate through passes
0	1
Offsides
3	2
Free Kicks
11	8
Passes
80% (323/406)	82% (326/398)
Long passes
33% (22/67)	36% (16/44)
Passes in final third
63% (67/106)	68% (89/130)
Crosses
31% (5/16)	14% (3/21)
Expected assists (xA)
0.41	0.98
Throw-ins
13	16
Fouls
8	13
Tackles
70% (7/10)	45% (5/11)
Duels won
36	36
Clearances
33	19
Interceptions
6	3
Errors leading to shot
2	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
1	3
xGOT faced
1.13	1.80
Goals prevented
0.13	0.80

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 1)
6', 1 - 0, Shirai E. ⚽, Moraes (A),
45+1', 1 - 1, Ito T. ⚽,
45+4', Marcinho 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
55', Tashiro R. 🟨,
57', Moraes ↓, Shimamura T. ↑,
63', Marcinho ↓, Ozeki Y. ↑,
71', Uemura H. ↓, Arai T. ↑,
72', Ohara M. ↓, Taniguchi K. ↑,
77', Tachibanada K. ↓, Kawahara S. ↑,
83', Hasegawa M. ↓, Yamura K. ↑,
85', Yamamoto Y. 🟨,
87', Ito T. ↓, Noda H. ↑,
87', Erison ↓, Kanda S. ↑,
90+4', Fujiwara S. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Albirex Niigata
25.1%

Draw
26%

Kawasaki Frontale
48.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.8%

54.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.5%

18.9%

45.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Albirex Niigata has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Kawasaki Frontale has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Kawasaki Frontale might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Albirex Niigata than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kawasaki Frontale than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

Albirex Niigata - Kawasaki Frontale Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.77 ↓ (4.05)	3.72 ↓ (4.05)	2.01 ↑ (1.7)	3.1% (8.2%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

What is the prediction for Albirex Niigata - Kawasaki Frontale?

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Niigata will win (votes: 2 - 13.3%). Kawasaki will win (votes: 11 - 73.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 13.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kawasaki: 50.9% – 95.7%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Kawasaki (votes: 2 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.

Preview Facts

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ J2 League and 8).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Niigata won 3.
Niigata has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).
Kawasaki is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
In this match, Kawasaki is considered a favorite.
There will not play in Niigata: Danilo Gomes (Knee Injury)
There will not play in Kawasaki: Kurumaya S. (Calf Injury) Lee G. (Knee Injury) Oshima R. (Calf Injury) Uremovic F. (Red Card) van Wermeskerken S. (Red Card)
There are questionable in Kawasaki: Erison (Injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Niigata won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 26:38. (average 1.3:1.9).
Including home matches between the teams, Niigata won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 15:15. (average 1.4:1.4).

How many head-to-head matches has Albirex Niigata won against Kawasaki Frontale?

Albirex Niigata has won 5 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Kawasaki Frontale won against Albirex Niigata?

Kawasaki Frontale has won 3 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Albirex Niigata - Kawasaki Frontale were as follows:

25.06.2025 Kawasaki Frontale - Albirex Niigata 3:1

13.10.2024 Kawasaki Frontale - Albirex Niigata 0:2

09.10.2024 Albirex Niigata - Kawasaki Frontale 4:1

27.09.2024 Kawasaki Frontale - Albirex Niigata 5:1

22.06.2024 Albirex Niigata - Kawasaki Frontale 2:1

Latest results of Albirex Niigata

11.08.2025 Cerezo Osaka - Albirex Niigata 3:1 ✺

20.07.2025 Albirex Niigata - Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0:2 ✺

05.07.2025 Kyoto Sanga - Albirex Niigata 2:1 ✺

29.06.2025 Albirex Niigata - Machida Zelvia 0:4 ✺

25.06.2025 Kawasaki Frontale - Albirex Niigata 3:1 ✺

Latest results of Kawasaki Frontale

09.08.2025 Kawasaki Frontale - Avispa Fukuoka 2:5 ✺

20.07.2025 Gamba Osaka - Kawasaki Frontale 2:1 ✺

16.07.2025 Kawasaki Frontale - Sagamihara 0:1 ✺

05.07.2025 Kawasaki Frontale - Kashima Antlers 2:1 ✺

29.06.2025 Tokyo Verdy - Kawasaki Frontale 1:0 ✺

Japan J1 League Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Kashima Antlers	34	20	6	8	52:28	24	66
2	Kashiwa Reysol	34	17	12	5	53:33	20	63
3	Kyoto	34	17	10	7	58:36	22	61
4	Vissel Kobe	34	18	7	9	43:28	15	61
5	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	34	17	8	9	39:23	16	59
6	Kawasaki Frontale	34	15	11	8	65:48	17	56
7	Machida	34	16	8	10	49:35	14	56
8	Urawa Reds	34	14	10	10	40:36	4	52
9	Gamba Osaka	34	15	5	14	46:52	-6	50
10	Cerezo Osaka	34	12	10	12	52:50	2	46
11	FC Tokyo	34	11	9	14	36:46	-10	42
12	Verdy	34	11	9	14	22:35	-13	42
13	Avispa Fukuoka	34	10	11	13	32:37	-5	41
14	Shimizu S-Pulse	34	10	11	13	38:44	-6	41
15	Okayama	34	11	8	15	30:37	-7	41
16	Nagoya Grampus	34	10	10	14	42:50	-8	40
17	Yokohama F. Marinos	34	9	7	18	36:44	-8	34
18	Yokohama FC	34	8	8	18	23:39	-16	32
19	Shonan Bellmare	34	6	8	20	29:58	-29	26
20	Albirex Niigata	34	4	10	20	30:56	-26	22

      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
      Relegation ~ J2 League