Vitoria Guimarães vs Alverca – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

28/02/2026 at 15:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Estádio D. Afonso Henriques (Guimarães).

Liga Portugal - Round 24
Referee: Filipe L. (Por)
Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Angola	Z Sports 1
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Portugal	Sport TV1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Sport, MEGOGO Ukraine

Match Stats


Expected goals (xG)
1.31	2.16
Ball possession
53%	47%
Total shots
15	11
Shots on target
6	5
Big chances
3	3
Corner kicks
0	11
Passes
87% (385/445)	82% (319/390)
Yellow cards
1	2
Expected goals (xG)
1.31	2.16
xG on target (xGOT)
0.92	2.48
Total shots
15	11
Shots on target
6	5
Shots off target
6	2
Blocked shots
3	4
Shots inside the box
10	8
Shots outside the box
5	3
Hit the woodwork
0	0
Big chances
3	3
Corner kicks
0	11
Touches in opposition box
20	27
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
4	1
Free kicks
5	16
Passes
87% (385/445)	82% (319/390)
Long passes
29% (10/34)	51% (31/61)
Passes in final third
73% (91/124)	66% (63/95)
Crosses
18% (3/17)	22% (6/27)
Expected assists (xA)
0.39	1.22
Throw ins
22	19
Fouls
16	5
Tackles
63% (10/16)	50% (10/20)
Duels won
41	59
Clearances
19	19
Interceptions
14	10
Errors leading to shot
2	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper saves
4	5
xGOT faced
2.48	0.92
Goals prevented
1.48	-0.08

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
35', Sousa D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', 1 - 0, Samu ⚽, Ndoye A. (A),
56', Sousa D. ↓, Nogueira G. ↑,
66', 1 - 1, Figueiredo ⚽, Chiquinho (A),
72', Marezi ↓, Sandro Lima ↑,
73', Gustavo ↓, Arcanjo T. ↑,
85', Chiquinho ↓, Garcia F. ↑,
85', Lincoln ↓, Moreira V. ↑,
85', Mendes J. II. ↓, Lebedenko O. ↑,
85', Saviolo N. ↓, Camara O. ↑,
86', Rhaldney 🟨,
89', Naves 🟨,
90', Rhaldney ↓, Gui D. ↑,
90+1', Figueiredo ↓, Baseya S. ↑,

Chances of winning

Vitoria Guimarães
51.9%

Draw
27.2%

Alverca
20.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.1%

26.7%

22.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

25.4%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitoria Guimarães has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Alverca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Vitoria Guimarães - Alverca Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↓ (1.85)	3.46 ↓ (3.54)	4.52 ↑ (4.25)	5.7% (5.8%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

What is the prediction for Vitoria Guimarães - Alverca?

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Guimarães will win (votes: 11 - 78.6%). Alverca will win (votes: 1 - 7.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Guimarães: 57.1% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Vitoria Guimarães will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.

Preview Facts

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 9 and 10).
In recent matches, Guimarães has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Alverca's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
Guimarães may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, Guimarães is a strong favorite.
There will not play in Guimarães: Rivas Viondi O. (Muscle Injury)
There will not play in Alverca: Abdulai S. (Injury) Chissumba (Injury) Diarra S. (Muscle Injury) Mendes T. (Muscle Injury)
There are questionable in Alverca: Leo Chu (Injury) Moreira V. (Injury)
In the last 1 head-to-head match, Guimarães won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

How many head-to-head matches has Vitoria Guimarães won against Alverca?

Vitoria Guimarães has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Alverca won against Vitoria Guimarães?

Alverca has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Vitoria Guimarães - Alverca were as follows:

28.09.2025 Alverca - Vitoria Guimarães 2:0

Latest results of Vitoria Guimarães

21.02.2026 Braga - Vitoria Guimarães 3:2 ✺

14.02.2026 Vitoria Guimarães - Estrela da Amadora 2:1 ✺

07.02.2026 Arouca - Vitoria Guimarães 3:2 ✺

30.01.2026 Vitoria Guimarães - Moreirense 1:0 ✺

24.01.2026 Estoril Praia - Vitoria Guimarães 4:2 ✺

Latest results of Alverca

21.02.2026 Alverca - Santa Clara 1:1 ✺

13.02.2026 Tondela - Alverca 1:1 ✺

08.02.2026 Benfica - Alverca 2:1 ✺

31.01.2026 Alverca - Estrela da Amadora 1:1 ✺

25.01.2026 Braga - Alverca 5:0 ✺

Liga Portugal Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	FC Porto	27	23	3	1	54:11	43	72
2	Sporting CP	26	20	5	1	68:15	53	65
3	Benfica	27	19	8	0	58:17	41	65
4	Braga	26	13	7	6	53:27	26	46
5	Famalicao	27	13	6	8	33:22	11	45
6	Gil Vicente	27	11	9	7	39:28	11	42
7	Estoril	27	10	7	10	48:44	4	37
8	Moreirense	27	10	5	12	31:39	-8	35
9	Vitoria Guimaraes	27	9	5	13	29:42	-13	32
10	Rio Ave	27	7	9	11	28:46	-18	30
11	Alverca	27	7	8	12	27:45	-18	29
12	Arouca	27	8	5	14	34:55	-21	29
13	Santa Clara	27	7	7	13	24:31	-7	28
14	Estrela	27	6	10	11	33:45	-12	28
15	Casa Pia	26	5	9	12	26:48	-22	24
16	Nacional	27	5	7	15	29:39	-10	22
17	Tondela	26	4	8	14	19:39	-20	20
18	AFS	27	1	8	18	18:58	-40	11

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      Liga Portugal (Relegation)
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