Result
1:1
28/02/2026 at 15:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 24
- Referee: Filipe L. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | ZAP |
 Angola | Z Sports 1 |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Sport, MEGOGO Ukraine |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.31 | 2.16 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 53% | 47% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 0 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (385/445) | 82% (319/390) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.31 | 2.16 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.92 | 2.48 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 8 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 0 | 11 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 20 | 27 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 16 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (385/445) | 82% (319/390) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 29% (10/34) | 51% (31/61) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 73% (91/124) | 66% (63/95) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 18% (3/17) | 22% (6/27) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.39 | 1.22 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 22 | 19 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 16 | 5 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 63% (10/16) | 50% (10/20) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 41 | 59 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 19 | 19 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 14 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.48 | 0.92 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.48 | -0.08 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 35', Sousa D. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', 1 - 0, Samu ⚽, Ndoye A. (A),
- 56', Sousa D. ↓, Nogueira G. ↑,
- 66', 1 - 1, Figueiredo ⚽, Chiquinho (A),
- 72', Marezi ↓, Sandro Lima ↑,
- 73', Gustavo ↓, Arcanjo T. ↑,
- 85', Chiquinho ↓, Garcia F. ↑,
- 85', Lincoln ↓, Moreira V. ↑,
- 85', Mendes J. II. ↓, Lebedenko O. ↑,
- 85', Saviolo N. ↓, Camara O. ↑,
- 86', Rhaldney 🟨,
- 89', Naves 🟨,
- 90', Rhaldney ↓, Gui D. ↑,
- 90+1', Figueiredo ↓, Baseya S. ↑,
Chances of winning
Vitoria Guimarães
51.9% | Draw
27.2% | Alverca
20.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Vitoria Guimarães has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)Alverca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (-3.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (+2.4%)
Vitoria Guimarães - Alverca Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.83 ↓
(1.85) |
3.46 ↓
(3.54) |
4.52 ↑
(4.25) |
5.7%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Vitoria Guimarães - Alverca?
Users Predictions:
14 users predict this event. Guimarães will win (votes: 11 - 78.6%). Alverca will win (votes: 1 - 7.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Guimarães: 57.1% – 100%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Vitoria Guimarães will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 9 and 10).
- In recent matches, Guimarães has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Alverca's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Guimarães may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Guimarães is a strong favorite.
- There will not play in Guimarães: Rivas Viondi O.
(Muscle Injury)
- There will not play in Alverca: Abdulai S.
(Injury)
Chissumba
(Injury)
Diarra S.
(Muscle Injury)
Mendes T.
(Muscle Injury)
- There are questionable in Alverca: Leo Chu
(Injury)
Moreira V.
(Injury)
- In the last 1 head-to-head match, Guimarães won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.
How many head-to-head matches has Vitoria Guimarães won against Alverca?
Vitoria Guimarães has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Alverca won against Vitoria Guimarães?
Alverca has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Vitoria Guimarães - Alverca were as follows:
28.09.2025
Alverca
-
Vitoria Guimarães
2:0
Latest results of Vitoria Guimarães
Latest results of Alverca
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 24 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 47:8 | 39 | 65 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 24 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 62:12 | 50 | 61 |
| 3 | Benfica | 24 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 51:14 | 37 | 58 |
| 4 | Braga | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 50:23 | 27 | 45 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 35:23 | 12 | 40 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 29:21 | 8 | 36 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 30:34 | -4 | 34 |
| 8 | Estoril | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 46:42 | 4 | 33 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 28:35 | -7 | 32 |
| 10 | Alverca | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 24:39 | -15 | 27 |
| 11 | Arouca | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 32:52 | -20 | 26 |
| 12 | Estrela | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 26:41 | -15 | 24 |
| 13 | Casa Pia | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 26:44 | -18 | 23 |
| 14 | Nacional | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 28:36 | -8 | 21 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 24 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 23:44 | -21 | 21 |
| 16 | Santa Clara | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 20:31 | -11 | 19 |
| 17 | Tondela | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 19:38 | -19 | 19 |
| 18 | AFS | 24 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 18:57 | -39 | 9 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
