Result
2:0
28/09/2025 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 7
- Referee: Costa B. J. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 6 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.67 | 1.23 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 43% | 57% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 19 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 75% (236/313) | 87% (344/397) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.67 | 1.23 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.76 | 0.39 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 19 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 10 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 15 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 6 | 23 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 17 | 15 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 75% (236/313) | 87% (344/397) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 35% (24/69) | 53% (16/30) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 61% (36/59) | 85% (123/144) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 43% (3/7) | 18% (6/33) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.18 | 1.46 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 16 | 30 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 15 | 17 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 73% (16/22) | 56% (5/9) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 54 | 35 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 35 | 5 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.39 | 1.76 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.39 | -0.24 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 16', Abdulai S. 🟨,
- 41', 1 - 0, Marezi (Pen),
- 45+2', Abdulai S. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Saviolo N. ↓, Blanco F. ↑,
- 46', Beni ↓, Samu ↑,
- 46', Figueiredo ↓, Mendes T. ↑,
- 60', Arcanjo T. ↓, Ndoye A. ↑,
- 66', Marezi ↓, Sandro Lima ↑,
- 71', Mendes J. II. ↓, Camara O. ↑,
- 71', Nogueira M. ↓, Felix V. ↑,
- 72', Lincoln ↓, Gui D. ↑,
- 79', Gomes A. 🟨,
- 90+5', Amorim ↓, Cabezas G. ↑,
- 90+7', 2 - 0, Sandro Lima ⚽, Mendes T. (A),
Chances of winning
Alverca
35% | Draw
31% | Vitoria Guimarães
34% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Alverca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alverca's performance.Vitoria Guimarães has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Vitoria Guimarães might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (-6.9%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alverca that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (+9.5%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Vitoria Guimarães could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Alverca - Vitoria Guimarães Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.74 ↓
(3.42) |
3.06 ↓
(3.38) |
2.92 ↑
(2.16) |
3.4%
(5.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Alverca - Vitoria Guimarães?
Users Predictions:
18 users predict this event. Alverca will win (votes: 4 - 22.2%). Guimarães will win (votes: 11 - 61.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Guimarães: 38.6% – 83.6%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Vitoria Guimarães will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation) and 8).
- Alverca is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Guimarães has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Guimarães may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- There will not play in Alverca: Leo Chu
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Alverca: Chiquinho
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Guimarães: Gustavo
(Injury)
- In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.
How many head-to-head matches has Alverca won against Vitoria Guimarães?
Alverca has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Vitoria Guimarães won against Alverca?
Vitoria Guimarães has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Alverca - Vitoria Guimarães were as follows:
Latest results of Alverca
Latest results of Vitoria Guimarães
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 19:1 | 18 | 22 |
| 2 | Benfica | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 18:4 | 14 | 21 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 20:5 | 15 | 19 |
| 4 | Gil Vicente | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14:4 | 10 | 19 |
| 5 | Moreirense | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 12:11 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 8:4 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Rio Ave | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 13:14 | -1 | 11 |
| 8 | Santa Clara | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 8:10 | -2 | 11 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9:12 | -3 | 11 |
| 10 | Braga | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12:8 | 4 | 10 |
| 11 | Nacional | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9:12 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 11:16 | -5 | 10 |
| 13 | Arouca | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 10:24 | -14 | 9 |
| 14 | Casa Pia | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8:13 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Estrela | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7:10 | -3 | 7 |
| 16 | Estoril | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10:13 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Tondela | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4:14 | -10 | 5 |
| 18 | AFS | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5:22 | -17 | 1 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
