Result
0:4
01/02/2026 at 07:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Premier League - Round 18
- Referee: Jabarov R. (Aze)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Azerbaijan | CBC Sport |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 53% | 47% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 19 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 19 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 11 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 2)
- 4', 0 - 1, Igor Ribeiro ⚽, Mahmudov E. (A),
- 13', Bruno Franco 🟨,
- 15', Vargas F. 🟨,
- 40', 0 - 2, Sambou B. ⚽, Igor Ribeiro (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 2)
- 46', Vargas F. ↓, Kuc E. ↑,
- 62', Boli C. ↓, Santos F. ↑,
- 65', Mammadov M. ↓, Ortiz L. ↑,
- 65', Sambou B. ↓, Aboubakar V. ↑,
- 70', Abbasov U. ↓, Buludov O. ↑,
- 72', Igor Ribeiro 🟨,
- 77', Shtogrin A. ↓, Curci A. ↑,
- 83', Mathew I. ↓, D'Almeida S. ↑,
- 84', 0 - 3, Curci A. ⚽,
- 85', Keyta H. ↓, Iskandarov U. ↑,
- 90+2', 0 - 4, Aboubakar V. ⚽,
Chances of winning
Araz Naxçıvan
27.8% | Draw
28.8% | Neftchi Baku
43.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Araz Naxçıvan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.9%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Araz Naxçıvan's form might have worsened.Neftchi Baku has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.7%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Neftchi Baku's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Araz Naxçıvan than the current prediction. (+11%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Araz Naxçıvan, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Neftchi Baku than the current prediction. (-11.6%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Neftchi Baku, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Araz Naxçıvan - Neftchi Baku Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.29 ↑
(2.44) |
3.17 ↑
(3.1) |
2.11 ↓
(2.82) |
9.3%
(8.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Araz Naxçıvan - Neftchi Baku?
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Araz will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Neftchi will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Neftchi: 23.1% – 88.1%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Neftchi (votes: 2 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 6 and 8).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Araz won 2.
- Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
- Neftchi will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Araz won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:9. (average 1.3:0.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Araz won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:2. (average 1.6:0.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Araz Naxçıvan won against Neftchi Baku?
Araz Naxçıvan has won 4 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Neftchi Baku won against Araz Naxçıvan?
Neftchi Baku has won 1 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Araz Naxçıvan - Neftchi Baku were as follows:
19.10.2025
Neftchi Baku
-
Araz Naxçıvan
2:2
29.03.2025
Neftchi Baku
-
Araz Naxçıvan
1:1
26.01.2025
Araz Naxçıvan
-
Neftchi Baku
2:1
01.11.2024
Neftchi Baku
-
Araz Naxçıvan
0:1
24.08.2024
Araz Naxçıvan
-
Neftchi Baku
1:1
Latest results of Araz Naxçıvan
Latest results of Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan Premier League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Sabah Baku | 22 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 45:15 | 30 | 53 |
| 2 | Qarabag | 21 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 39:16 | 23 | 46 |
| 3 | Turan Tovuz | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 27:14 | 13 | 41 |
| 4 | Zira | 22 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 29:22 | 7 | 38 |
| 5 | Araz | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 31:36 | -5 | 33 |
| 6 | Neftci Baku | 21 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 30:20 | 10 | 31 |
| 7 | Sumqayit | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 31:30 | 1 | 31 |
| 8 | Shamakhi | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 23:26 | -3 | 26 |
| 9 | Imisli FK | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 18:25 | -7 | 21 |
| 10 | Gabala | 22 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 19:29 | -10 | 16 |
| 11 | Kapaz | 22 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 17:45 | -28 | 16 |
| 12 | Karvan | 22 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 14:45 | -31 | 7 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Relegation ~ I Liqa
