Result
1:3
05/04/2026 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Premier League - Round 26
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Azerbaijan | CBC Sport |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 45% | 55% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 3 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 3 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 34', Muradly S. 🟨,
- 36', 0 - 1, Vargas F. (Penalty Awarded),
- 2nd Half (1 - 2)
- 53', 1 - 1, Ninkovic N. ⚽,
- 65', 1 - 2, Mathew I. ⚽,
- 65', Camalov E. ↓, Rezabala J. ↑,
- 65', Breno Almeida ↓, Mammadov M. ↑,
- 74', Simon N. ↓, Murata M. ↑,
- 74', Ahmadzada R. ↓, Ahmadzada N. ↑,
- 74', Ninkovic N. ↓, Jankovic A. ↑,
- 79', Faraj I. ↓, Curci A. ↑,
- 79', Mathew I. ↓, D'Almeida S. ↑,
- 79', Badolo C. ↓, Vasquez R. ↑,
- 79', Abdullazada S. ↓, Mustafaev E. ↑,
- 81', Vargas F. ↓, Aboubakar V. ↑,
- 89', 1 - 3, Aboubakar V. ⚽,
Chances of winning
Sumgayit
21.5% | Draw
27.5% | Neftchi Baku
51% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Sumgayit has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sumgayit's form might have worsened.Neftchi Baku has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Neftchi Baku's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sumgayit than the current prediction. (+5.3%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sumgayit, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Neftchi Baku than the current prediction. (-7.1%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Neftchi Baku, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Sumgayit - Neftchi Baku Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
4.26 ↑
(3.36) |
3.33 ↑
(3.08) |
1.79 ↓
(2.08) |
9.3%
(10.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Sumgayit - Neftchi Baku?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 0.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Neftchi Baku will win
(7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Neftchi Baku will win (2 of 2 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sumgayit won 1.
- Sumgayit has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Neftchi is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Recently, Sumgayit has had a series of away games.
- Neftchi could have a small edge in this match.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sumgayit won 3 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 19:32. (average 1:1.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Sumgayit won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 11:18. (average 1.1:1.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Sumgayit won against Neftchi Baku?
Sumgayit has won 3 of their last 16 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Neftchi Baku won against Sumgayit?
Neftchi Baku has won 7 of their last 16 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Sumgayit - Neftchi Baku were as follows:
15.12.2025
Neftchi Baku
-
Sumgayit
2:2
21.09.2025
Sumgayit
-
Neftchi Baku
0:2
28.04.2025
Sumgayit
-
Neftchi Baku
2:2
21.02.2025
Neftchi Baku
-
Sumgayit
1:0
08.12.2024
Sumgayit
-
Neftchi Baku
2:0
Latest results of Sumgayit
Latest results of Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan Premier League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Sabah Baku | 29 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 69:21 | 48 | 72 |
| 2 | Qarabag | 29 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 61:22 | 39 | 59 |
| 3 | Turan Tovuz | 29 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 39:20 | 19 | 56 |
| 4 | Neftci Baku | 29 | 12 | 11 | 6 | 48:31 | 17 | 47 |
| 5 | Zira | 29 | 11 | 13 | 5 | 38:32 | 6 | 46 |
| 6 | Araz | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 38:54 | -16 | 40 |
| 7 | Sumqayit | 30 | 11 | 5 | 14 | 39:42 | -3 | 38 |
| 8 | Shamakhi | 29 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 27:29 | -2 | 35 |
| 9 | Imisli FK | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 22:39 | -17 | 32 |
| 10 | Kapaz | 30 | 7 | 3 | 20 | 24:58 | -34 | 24 |
| 11 | Gabala | 29 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 26:45 | -19 | 20 |
| 12 | Karvan | 29 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 21:59 | -38 | 14 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Relegation ~ I Liqa
