Result
1:2
15/03/2026 at 11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Tercera RFEF - Group 4 - Round 26
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (1 - 2)
- 68', 1 - 0, ⚽,
- 85', 1 - 1, ⚽,
- 89', 1 - 2, ⚽,
Chances of winning
Aretxabaleta
35.1% | Draw
28.1% | Derio
36.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Aretxabaleta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)Derio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aretxabaleta than the current prediction. (+3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derio than the current prediction. (-1.8%)
Aretxabaleta - Derio Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.6 ↑
(2.4) |
3.26 ↓
(3.4) |
2.49 ↓
(2.6) |
9.3%
(9.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
Preview Facts
- Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 10 and 7).
- In recent matches, Aretxabaleta has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Derio is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Aretxabaleta may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Aretxabaleta won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 0:4. (average 0:1.3).
- Including home match between the teams, Aretxabaleta won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.
How many head-to-head matches has Aretxabaleta won against Derio?
Aretxabaleta has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Derio won against Aretxabaleta?
Derio has won 3 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Aretxabaleta - Derio were as follows:
31.10.2025
Derio
-
Aretxabaleta
1:0
15.03.2025
Derio
-
Aretxabaleta
2:0
01.11.2024
Aretxabaleta
-
Derio
0:1
Latest results of Aretxabaleta
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Portugalete | 27 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 58:17 | 41 | 67 |
| 2 | Leioa | 27 | 16 | 4 | 7 | 40:25 | 15 | 52 |
| 3 | Touring KE | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 36:26 | 10 | 47 |
| 4 | Lagun Onak | 27 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 41:26 | 15 | 46 |
| 5 | Derio | 27 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 45:31 | 14 | 46 |
| 6 | Aurrera de Vitoria | 27 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 35:31 | 4 | 46 |
| 7 | Alaves C | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 44:31 | 13 | 42 |
| 8 | San Ignacio | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 27:20 | 7 | 42 |
| 9 | UD Aretxabaleta | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 44:44 | 0 | 38 |
| 10 | Durango | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 29:28 | 1 | 36 |
| 11 | Real Sociedad C | 27 | 11 | 3 | 13 | 29:35 | -6 | 36 |
| 12 | Santurtzi | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 27:35 | -8 | 31 |
| 13 | Pasaia | 27 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 20:32 | -12 | 28 |
| 14 | Eibar C | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 30:43 | -13 | 27 |
| 15 | Anorga | 27 | 8 | 3 | 16 | 26:49 | -23 | 27 |
| 16 | Zamudio | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 28:43 | -15 | 26 |
| 17 | Zarautz KE | 27 | 6 | 4 | 17 | 22:50 | -28 | 22 |
| 18 | SD Deusto | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 18:33 | -15 | 21 |
Promotion
Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 4 (Play Offs: )
Relegation
