Result
3:2
14/02/2026 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Tercera RFEF - Group 4 - Round 22
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 2)
- 4', 0 - 1, ⚽,
- 35', 0 - 2, ⚽,
- 41', 1 - 2, ⚽,
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 61', 2 - 2, ⚽,
- 80', 3 - 2, ⚽,
Chances of winning
Aretxabaleta
28.9% | Draw
27.1% | Leioa
43.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Aretxabaleta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)Leioa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aretxabaleta than the current prediction. (-2.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leioa than the current prediction. (-0.4%)
Aretxabaleta - Leioa Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.14 ↓
(3.28) |
3.35 ↑
(3.02) |
2.07 ↓
(2.18) |
10.2%
(9.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Aretxabaleta - Leioa?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 4 (Play Offs: )).
- Aretxabaleta has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Leioa is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- Leioa could have a small edge in this match.
- In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Aretxabaleta won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:5. (average 2.3:1.7).
- Including home match between the teams, Aretxabaleta won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.
How many head-to-head matches has Aretxabaleta won against Leioa?
Aretxabaleta has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Leioa won against Aretxabaleta?
Leioa has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Aretxabaleta - Leioa were as follows:
05.10.2025
Leioa
-
Aretxabaleta
2:4
01.02.2025
Leioa
-
Aretxabaleta
2:1
22.09.2024
Aretxabaleta
-
Leioa
2:1
Latest results of Aretxabaleta
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Portugalete | 33 | 23 | 6 | 4 | 68:28 | 40 | 75 |
| 2 | Leioa | 33 | 18 | 7 | 8 | 48:31 | 17 | 61 |
| 3 | Touring KE | 33 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 46:33 | 13 | 57 |
| 4 | Derio | 33 | 16 | 7 | 10 | 53:40 | 13 | 55 |
| 5 | Lagun Onak | 33 | 16 | 6 | 11 | 51:32 | 19 | 54 |
| 6 | Alaves C | 33 | 15 | 8 | 10 | 56:38 | 18 | 53 |
| 7 | Real Sociedad C | 33 | 16 | 4 | 13 | 46:38 | 8 | 52 |
| 8 | San Ignacio | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 35:26 | 9 | 52 |
| 9 | Aurrera de Vitoria | 33 | 15 | 6 | 12 | 40:40 | 0 | 51 |
| 10 | UD Aretxabaleta | 33 | 12 | 6 | 15 | 53:60 | -7 | 42 |
| 11 | Durango | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 31:35 | -4 | 41 |
| 12 | Santurtzi | 33 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 31:41 | -10 | 39 |
| 13 | Pasaia | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 26:43 | -17 | 36 |
| 14 | Anorga | 33 | 11 | 4 | 18 | 36:57 | -21 | 34 |
| 15 | Eibar C | 33 | 8 | 9 | 16 | 41:53 | -12 | 33 |
| 16 | Zamudio | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 41:56 | -15 | 33 |
| 17 | Zarautz KE | 33 | 8 | 6 | 19 | 30:59 | -29 | 30 |
| 18 | SD Deusto | 33 | 6 | 7 | 20 | 25:47 | -22 | 25 |
Promotion
Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 4 (Play Offs: )
Relegation
