Result
3:2
16/11/2025 at 05:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Tercera RFEF - Group 4 - Round 11
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 20', 0 - 1, ⚽,
- 21', 1 - 1, Cuello Y. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 66', 2 - 1, ⚽,
- 81', 2 - 2, ⚽,
- 89', 3 - 2, ⚽,
Chances of winning
Portugalete
58.4% | Draw
24.1% | Aretxabaleta
17.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Portugalete has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)Aretxabaleta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portugalete than the current prediction. (+5.6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Portugalete, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aretxabaleta than the current prediction. (-3.2%)
Portugalete - Aretxabaleta Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.6 ↑
(1.45) |
3.87 ↓
(4) |
5.33 ↓
(6.22) |
7.2%
(10%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
Preview Facts
- One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion and 6).
- Portugalete is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Aretxabaleta has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Aretxabaleta may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Portugalete is a strong favorite.
- We predict that Portugalete will win today's game, with odds of 1.6.
- In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Portugalete won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).
- Including home match between the teams, Portugalete won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.
How many head-to-head matches has Portugalete won against Aretxabaleta?
Portugalete has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Aretxabaleta won against Portugalete?
Aretxabaleta has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Portugalete - Aretxabaleta were as follows:
10.05.2025
Portugalete
-
Aretxabaleta
2:1
12.01.2025
Aretxabaleta
-
Portugalete
0:2
Latest results of Portugalete
Latest results of Aretxabaleta
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Portugalete | 24 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 52:17 | 35 | 60 |
| 2 | Leioa | 24 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 35:23 | 12 | 45 |
| 3 | Lagun Onak | 24 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 36:22 | 14 | 41 |
| 4 | Touring KE | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 31:20 | 11 | 41 |
| 5 | Aurrera de Vitoria | 24 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 31:30 | 1 | 40 |
| 6 | San Ignacio | 24 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 24:18 | 6 | 38 |
| 7 | Derio | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 37:29 | 8 | 37 |
| 8 | Alaves C | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 38:27 | 11 | 36 |
| 9 | UD Aretxabaleta | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 41:40 | 1 | 35 |
| 10 | Durango | 24 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 24:21 | 3 | 33 |
| 11 | Real Sociedad C | 24 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 26:28 | -2 | 33 |
| 12 | Santurtzi | 24 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 24:32 | -8 | 27 |
| 13 | Eibar C | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 28:38 | -10 | 26 |
| 14 | Zamudio | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 27:39 | -12 | 25 |
| 15 | Pasaia | 24 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 16:30 | -14 | 24 |
| 16 | Anorga | 24 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 23:43 | -20 | 24 |
| 17 | Zarautz KE | 24 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 20:43 | -23 | 21 |
| 18 | SD Deusto | 24 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 17:30 | -13 | 18 |
Promotion
Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 4 (Play Offs: )
Relegation
