Result
1:0
18/01/2026 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Super League - Round 17
- Referee: Zampalas S. (Gre)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Cyprus | Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 5, Cytavision Sports 5 |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 1 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.60 | 0.56 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 26% | 74% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 63% (110/175) | 84% (418/498) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.60 | 0.56 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.56 | 0.12 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 5 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 11 | 11 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 21 | 26 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 63% (110/175) | 84% (418/498) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 30% (14/47) | 28% (14/50) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 50% (28/56) | 62% (54/87) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 13% (1/8) | 18% (3/17) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.18 | 0.54 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 15 | 14 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 26 | 21 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 63% (10/16) | 56% (5/9) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 59 | 49 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 38 | 19 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.12 | 0.56 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.12 | -0.44 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 3', 1 - 0, Sagal A. ⚽, Mourgos S. (A),
- 19', Melissas N. 🟨,
- 37', Monchu 🟨,
- 37', Perez F. 🟨,
- 39', Panagidis M. 🟨,
- 45+2', Mourgos S. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Panagidis M. ↓, Misehouy G. ↑,
- 56', Galanopoulos K. ↓, Hongla M. ↑,
- 56', Dudu ↓, Boussaid O. ↑,
- 60', Tejero A. 🟨,
- 65', Mourgos S. ↓, Garate L. ↑,
- 66', Perez C. ↓, Racic U. ↑,
- 66', Moron L. ↓, Morutan O. ↑,
- 74', Sagal A. ↓, Olafsson D. ↑,
- 77', Kossonou A. 🟨,
- 81', Deligiannidis P. ↓, Apostolakis K. ↑,
- 81', Tupta L. ↓, Chatzistravos Z. ↑,
- 90', Sonko Sundberg N. 🟨,
- 90+3', Olafsson D. 🟨,
Chances of winning
AEL Larissa
22.5% | Draw
30.5% | Aris
47% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
AEL Larissa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)Aris has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for AEL Larissa than the current prediction. (-3.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aris than the current prediction. (+5.8%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Aris could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
AEL Larissa - Aris Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
4.16 ↓
(4.7) |
3.09 ↓
(3.15) |
1.99 ↑
(1.83) |
6.7%
(7.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for AEL Larissa - Aris?
Users Predictions:
14 users predict this event. Larissa will win (votes: 8 - 57.1%). Aris will win (votes: 5 - 35.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Larissa: 31.2% – 83%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Larissa (votes: 2 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -0.5 - Larissa (4.46) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Larissa (votes: 3 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 13 in the zone Super League (Relegation Group: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League (Conference League Group: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Larissa won 0.
- Larissa is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Aris has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Larissa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Aris will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Larissa: Atanasov J.
(Yellow Cards)
Macon Y.
(Red Card)
- There will not play in Aris: Alfarela M.
(Foot Injury)
Hongla M.
(Injury)
Mendyl H.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Aris: Misehouy G.
(Injury)
Voriazidis M.
(Injury)
- In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Larissa won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 5:12. (average 0.5:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Larissa won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3. (average 0:1).
How many head-to-head matches has AEL Larissa won against Aris?
AEL Larissa has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Aris won against AEL Larissa?
Aris has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between AEL Larissa - Aris were as follows:
29.11.2025
Aris
-
AEL Larissa
2:1
Latest results of AEL Larissa
Greek Super League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Olympiacos Piraeus ✔ | 23 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 42:11 | 31 | 53 |
| 2 | AEK Athens ✔ | 23 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 43:15 | 28 | 53 |
| 3 | PAOK ✔ | 22 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 44:14 | 30 | 50 |
| 4 | Levadiakos | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 49:30 | 19 | 39 |
| 5 | Panathinaikos | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 34:23 | 11 | 39 |
| 6 | OFI Crete | 22 | 9 | 1 | 12 | 30:37 | -7 | 28 |
| 7 | Aris | 23 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 20:25 | -5 | 28 |
| 8 | Atromitos | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 24:27 | -3 | 27 |
| 9 | Volos | 23 | 8 | 3 | 12 | 23:34 | -11 | 27 |
| 10 | Kifisia | 22 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 28:33 | -5 | 24 |
| 11 | Panetolikos | 23 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 22:37 | -15 | 21 |
| 12 | AEL Larissa | 23 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 21:37 | -16 | 21 |
| 13 | Asteras Tripolis ✔ | 23 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 20:37 | -17 | 16 |
| 14 | Panserraikos ✔ | 23 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 15:55 | -40 | 12 |
Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: )
Promotion ~ Super League (Conference League Group: )
Super League (Relegation Group: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Olympiacos Piraeus is Qualified for Super League (Championship Group )
AEK Athens is Qualified for Super League (Championship Group )
PAOK is Qualified for Super League (Championship Group )
Asteras Tripolis is Super League (Relegation Group )
Panserraikos is Super League (Relegation Group )
