Result
1:0
12/04/2026 at 13:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 29
- Referee: Pereira C. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | ZAP |
 Angola | Z Sports 1 |
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 10, beIN Sports MAX 9, Free |
 Germany | Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2 |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 3 |
 Portugal | Sport TV2 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.89 | 1.11 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 62% | 38% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 6 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (576/651) | 82% (312/381) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.89 | 1.11 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.71 | 0.14 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 6 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 13 | 10 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (576/651) | 82% (312/381) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 41% (14/34) | 47% (22/47) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 76% (90/118) | 69% (49/71) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 0% (0/6) | 22% (4/18) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.51 | 0.47 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 25 | 15 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 9 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 40% (2/5) | 77% (10/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 33 | 33 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 33 | 10 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.14 | 0.71 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.14 | -0.29 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Vitor Carvalho ↓, Oliveira P. ↑,
- 55', Kuipers B. 🟨,
- 63', Lelo L. ↓, Martinez G. ↑,
- 63', Horta R. ↓, Victor P. ↑,
- 65', Gozalbez P. ↓, Trezza A. ↑,
- 65', Kuipers B. ↓, Dante A. ↑,
- 66', 1 - 0, Victor P. ⚽,
- 72', Martinez G. 🟨,
- 76', Moutinho J. ↓, Gorby ↑,
- 82', Martinez G. 🟨,
- 83', Barbero I. (Penalty Awarded),
- 85', Lee H. ↓, Flores M. ↑,
- 85', Fukui T. ↓, Pedro Santos ↑,
- 89', Navarro F. ↓, da Rocha Y. ↑,
- 90+1', Tiago Esgaio ↓, Mayulu F. ↑,
- 90+6', Fontan J. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Braga
66.2% | Draw
21% | Arouca
12.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Braga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)Arouca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Braga than the current prediction. (+7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Braga, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (-1.8%)
Braga - Arouca Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.43 ↑
(1.4) |
4.56 ↓
(5.14) |
7.33 ↓
(8.3) |
5.3%
(2.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Braga - Arouca?
Users Predictions:
6 users predict this event. Braga will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH +0.5 - Arouca (6.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Arouca (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 11).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Braga won 4.
- Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
- Arouca may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Braga is the clear favorite.
- There will not play in Braga: Barisic A.
(Muscle Injury)
Lagerbielke G.
(Yellow Cards)
Zalazar R.
(Injury)
- There will not play in Arouca: De Arruabarrena I.
(Yellow Cards)
- There are questionable in Braga: Rodrigues D.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Arouca: Gozalbez P.
(Injury)
Nandin D.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Braga won 14 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 40:12. (average 2:0.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Braga won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 19:9. (average 1.7:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Braga won against Arouca?
Braga has won 6 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Arouca won against Braga?
Arouca has won 1 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Braga - Arouca were as follows:
01.12.2025
Arouca
-
Braga
0:4
29.03.2025
Braga
-
Arouca
2:1
03.11.2024
Arouca
-
Braga
1:2
06.04.2024
Braga
-
Arouca
0:3
12.11.2023
Arouca
-
Braga
0:1
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 29 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 59:14 | 45 | 76 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 28 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 73:17 | 56 | 71 |
| 3 | Benfica | 29 | 20 | 9 | 0 | 61:18 | 43 | 69 |
| 4 | Braga | 28 | 15 | 7 | 6 | 55:27 | 28 | 52 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 29 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 36:25 | 11 | 47 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 28 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 42:28 | 14 | 45 |
| 7 | Estoril | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 51:50 | 1 | 37 |
| 8 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 35:43 | -8 | 36 |
| 9 | Moreirense | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 32:41 | -9 | 36 |
| 10 | Alverca | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 32:47 | -15 | 35 |
| 11 | Rio Ave | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 31:48 | -17 | 33 |
| 12 | Arouca | 29 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 37:58 | -21 | 32 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 26:37 | -11 | 28 |
| 14 | Estrela | 29 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 33:48 | -15 | 28 |
| 15 | Nacional | 29 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 31:41 | -10 | 25 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 28 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 28:52 | -24 | 25 |
| 17 | Tondela | 27 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 19:44 | -25 | 20 |
| 18 | AFS | 29 | 1 | 9 | 19 | 19:62 | -43 | 12 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
