Athletic Bilbao vs Qarabağ Agdam – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football UEFA Champions League
Result
3:1
22/10/2025 at 12:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Champions League - League phase - Round 3
  • Referee: Pajac I. (Cro)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaDStv Now, New World Sport 3, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
albaniaAlbaniaTring Sport 2
argentinaArgentinaDisney+, ESPN 2
armeniaArmeniaFast Sports
asiaAsiabeIN Sports MENA 3
australiaAustraliaStan Sport
austriaAustriaDAZN 2, Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 4
azerbaijanAzerbaijanCBC Sport, Ictimai TV
belgiumBelgiumPickx+ Sports 2, Pickx+ Sports 2, Play Sports 1, Play Sports 4
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Sport 2
brazilBrazilClaro TV+, HBO Max, Sky+, TNT Sports, Vivo Play, Zapping
bulgariaBulgariaBTV Action, Voyo
canadaCanadaAmazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
chileChileDisney+
chinaChinaiQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
colombiaColombiaDisney+, ESPN 2
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
cyprusCyprusCytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sport 4K, Cytavision Sport 4K, Cytavision Sports 1, Cytavision Sports 1, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 5, Oneplay
denmarkDenmarkTV3 MAX, Viaplay
finlandFinlandMTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
franceFranceCANAL+ Foot, Canal+ Live 2
georgiaGeorgiaSilk Universal
germanyGermanyAmazon Prime Video, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
greeceGreeceCOSMOTE Sport 2
hong-kongHong-kongbeIN Sports 3
hungaryHungaryRTL+
icelandIcelandSÝN Sport Viaplay
indiaIndiaJioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2
indonesiaIndonesiabeIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, SCTV, Vidio
israelIsrael5 PLUS Israel
italyItalyNOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 254, Sky Sport Arena
kazakhstanKazakhstanQazsport
kenyaKenyaGotv
kosovoKosovoArena Premium 1
laosLaosbeIN Connect
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Canal+ Sport 1, Sooka
maldivesMaldivesMedianet
maltaMaltaGO TV, TSN Malta 1
mexicoMexicoAmazon Prime Video, Caliente TV, Fox Sports
mongoliaMongoliaPremier Sports 2
netherlandsNetherlandsZiggo Sport 3
new-zealandNew-zealandDAZN New Zealand, TVWan Sports 2
nigeriaNigeriaSupersport Maximo 1, Supersport Maximo 2, SuperSport Premier League
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaESPN Norte, RUSH Sports 2 Caribbean
north-macedoniaNorth-macedoniaTDM Desporto
norwayNorwayTV2 Play
pakistanPakistanTapmad
peruPeruDisney+
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
polandPolandCanal+ Extra 2
portugalPortugalDAZN 1, DAZN / App
romaniaRomaniaDigi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 1
singaporeSingaporebeIN Sport 1
slovakiaSlovakiaVoyo
south-africaSouth-africaSupersport Maximo 1, SuperSport Variety 3
south-americaSouth-americaESPN 2 South, ViX Latin America
south-koreaSouth-koreaSPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime
spainSpainLaLiga TV Bar, M+ Liga de Campeones
surinameSurinameATV Suriname
swedenSwedenViaplay
switzerlandSwitzerlandBlue Sport 9, Blue Sport 9, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
taiwanTaiwanELTA Sports 2
thailandThailandAIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
turkeyTurkeyTabii Spor 1, Tabii
ukraineUkraineMEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomAmazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, TNT Sports 4, Virgin Media More
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaParamount+, TUDN App, TUDN, Univision
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+, Inter
vietnamVietnamON Football, ON Plus

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
3.250.52
Ball Possession
60%40%
Total shots
219
Shots on target
54
Big Chances
52
Corner Kicks
83
Passes
85% (411/481)74% (247/335)
Expected Goals (xG)
3.250.52
xG on target (xGOT)
1.860.56
Total shots
219
Shots on target
54
Shots off target
81
Blocked Shots
84
Shots inside the Box
136
Shots outside the Box
83
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
52
Corner Kicks
83
Touches in opposition box
3616
Accurate through passes
20
Offsides
10
Free Kicks
514
Passes
85% (411/481)74% (247/335)
Long passes
59% (27/46)40% (26/65)
Passes in final third
78% (137/176)62% (56/91)
Crosses
18% (4/22)22% (2/9)
Expected assists (xA)
1.840.24
Throw-ins
2017
Fouls
145
Tackles
65% (17/26)58% (15/26)
Duels won
4754
Clearances
1322
Interceptions
1115
Errors leading to shot
02
Errors leading to goal
10
Goalkeeper Saves
22
xGOT faced
0.561.86
Goals prevented
-0.44-1.14

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 1', 0 - 1, Leandro Andrade ⚽,
  • 38', Williams I. ↓, Berenguer A. ↑,
  • 40', 1 - 1, Guruzeta G. ⚽, Jauregizar M. (A),
  • 2nd Half (2 - 0)
  • 56', Pedro Bicalho ↓, Jankovic M. ↑,
  • 56', Leandro Andrade ↓, Addai E. ↑,
  • 65', Gorosabel A. ↓, Areso J. ↑,
  • 65', Rego A. ↓, Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↑,
  • 65', Williams N. ↓, Navarro R. ↑,
  • 67', Akhundzade N. ↓, Bayramov T. ↑,
  • 67', Duran C. ↓, Kashchuk O. ↑,
  • 70', 2 - 1, Navarro R. ⚽, Berenguer A. (A),
  • 79', Matheus Silva ↓, Dani Bolt ↑,
  • 81', Sancet O. ↓, Vesga M. ↑,
  • 88', 3 - 1, Guruzeta G. ⚽, Jauregizar M. (A),

Chances of winning


Athletic Bilbao
68.6%		Draw
19.2%		Qarabağ Agdam
12.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
71.5% 18.9% 9.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.2% 15.1% 12%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)
  • Qarabağ Agdam has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (-11.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Athletic Bilbao that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Qarabağ Agdam than the current prediction. (-0.1%)
    •

    Athletic Bilbao - Qarabağ Agdam Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.5 ↑
    (1.34)    		 5.18 ↑
    (5.07)    		 7.91 ↓
    (9.97)    		 -1.1%
    (4.6%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
    What is the prediction for Athletic Bilbao - Qarabağ Agdam?
  • Users Predictions: 57 users predict this event. Athletic will win (votes: 37 - 64.9%). Qarabağ will win (votes: 13 - 22.8%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 12.3%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Athletic: 52.5% – 77.3%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 27 high ROI users predict this event. Athletic (votes: 13 - 48.1%). Qarabağ (votes: 5 - 18.5%). Tie (votes: 9 - 33.3%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH -2 - Qarabağ (1.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • DC - Qarabağ (3.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .
    • AH -1.5 - Qarabağ (1.94) (votes: 4 - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • 1X2, 1st Half - draw (votes: 0 - 0%) .
    • O/U 2.75 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -1.75 - Athletic (2.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -1 - Athletic (1.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -1.25 - Athletic (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH 0 - Qarabağ (6.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 38 high ROI users predict this event. Athletic (votes: 17 - 44.7%). Qarabağ (votes: 12 - 31.6%). Tie (votes: 9 - 23.7%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • In recent matches, Athletic has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Qarabağ is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).
    • Athletic may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, Athletic is the undisputed favorite.
    • There will not play in Athletic: Alvarez Y. (Doping) Egiluz U. (Knee Injury) Izeta (Inactive) Prados Diaz B. (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Qarabağ: Montiel J. (Thigh Injury) Rzayev A. (Inactive) Sheydayev R. (Inactive)
    • Recently, the teams have not faced each other.
    Latest results of Athletic Bilbao
    19.10.2025 Elche - Athletic Bilbao 0:0 ✺
    04.10.2025 Athletic Bilbao - Mallorca 2:1 ✺
    01.10.2025 Borussia Dortmund - Athletic Bilbao 4:1 ✺
    27.09.2025 Villarreal - Athletic Bilbao 1:0 ✺
    23.09.2025 Athletic Bilbao - Girona 1:1 ✺
    Latest results of Qarabağ Agdam
    17.10.2025 Turan Tovuz - Qarabağ Agdam 1:2 ✺
    04.10.2025 Qarabağ Agdam - Kapaz 1:0
    01.10.2025 Qarabağ Agdam - Copenhagen 2:0 ✺
    26.09.2025 Qarabağ Agdam - Gabala 2:0 ✺
    21.09.2025 Araz Naxçıvan - Qarabağ Agdam 0:5
    Draw
    Play Offs

    1/16-finals
    1Monaco (21)PSG (11)2 : 2, 2 : 3
    2Chelsea (6)Bye
    3Galatasaray (20)Juventus (13)2 : 3, 5 : 2
    4Liverpool (3)Bye
    5Benfica (24)Real Madrid (9)1 : 2, 0 : 1
    6Manchester City (8)Bye
    7Dortmund (17)Atalanta (15)1 : 4, 2 : 0
    8Bayern Munich (2)Bye
    9Qarabag (22)Newcastle (12)2 : 3, 1 : 6
    10Barcelona (5)Bye
    11Club Brugge KV (19)Atl. Madrid (14)1 : 4, 3 : 3
    12Tottenham (4)Bye
    13Bodo/Glimt (23)Inter (10)2 : 1, 3 : 1
    14Sporting CP (7)Bye
    15Olympiacos Piraeus (18)Bayer Leverkusen (16)0 : 0, 0 : 2
    16Arsenal (1)Bye

    1/8-finals
    1PSG (11)Chelsea (6)3 : 0, 5 : 2
    2Galatasaray (20)Liverpool (3)0 : 4, 1 : 0
    3Real Madrid (9)Manchester City (8)2 : 1, 3 : 0
    4Atalanta (15)Bayern Munich (2)1 : 4, 1 : 6
    5Newcastle (12)Barcelona (5)2 : 7, 1 : 1
    6Atl. Madrid (14)Tottenham (4)2 : 3, 5 : 2
    7Bodo/Glimt (23)Sporting CP (7)0 : 5, 3 : 0
    8Bayer Leverkusen (16)Arsenal (1)0 : 2, 1 : 1

    Quarter-finals
    1PSG (11)Liverpool (3)
    2Real Madrid (9)Bayern Munich (2)
    3Barcelona (5)Atl. Madrid (14)
    4Sporting CP (7)Arsenal (1)

    Semi-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4

    Final
    1TBD #1TBD #2
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