Grêmio Novorizontino vs Athletic Club – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

19/09/2025 at 18:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi (Novo Horizonte).

Serie B Superbet - Round 27
Referee: Mendes F. (Bra)
Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, ESPN

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.74	0.37
Ball Possession
57%	43%
Total shots
19	2
Shots on target
4	0
Big Chances
1	1
Corner Kicks
9	5
Passes
84% (354/419)	77% (255/330)
Yellow Cards
3	3
Red Cards
0	1
Expected Goals (xG)
0.74	0.37
xG on target (xGOT)
1.05	0.00
Total shots
19	2
Shots on target
4	0
Shots off target
9	1
Blocked Shots
6	1
Shots inside the Box
6	2
Shots outside the Box
13	0
Hit the Woodwork
1	0
Headed Goals
1	0
Big Chances
1	1
Corner Kicks
9	5
Touches in opposition box
18	10
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
1	1
Free Kicks
15	11
Passes
84% (354/419)	77% (255/330)
Long passes
64% (46/72)	42% (20/48)
Passes in final third
77% (122/158)	54% (34/63)
Crosses
28% (11/40)	9% (1/11)
Expected assists (xA)
0.74	0.28
Throw-ins
28	16
Fouls
11	15
Tackles
93% (14/15)	75% (9/12)
Duels won
46	44
Clearances
16	28
Interceptions
5	12
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
0	3
xGOT faced
0.00	1.05
Goals prevented
0.00	0.05

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
5', Nathan Fogaca 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Marcelo Ajul ↓, Martinez F. ↑,
58', Nathan Fogaca ↓, Robson ↑,
58', David Braga ↓, Da Cruz A. ↑,
58', Neto Costa ↓, Tavares R. ↑,
59', Romulo ↓, Patrick Brey ↑,
62', Sidimar ↓, Alex Nascimento ↑,
68', Matheus Frizzo ↓, Airton ↑,
69', Bruno Jose ↓, Tavinho ↑,
75', Adriel 🟨,
75', Max ↓, Luiz Filipe ↑,
78', Fabio Matheus 🟨,
80', Jhonatan Silva 🟨,
88', Mayk ↓, Ruiz O. ↑,
89', Da Cruz A. 🟨,
90+2', 1 - 0, Ruiz O. ⚽,
90+5', Tavinho 🟨,
90+9', Alex Nascimento 🟥,

Chances of winning

Grêmio Novorizontino
52.2%

Draw
28.5%

Athletic Club
19.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52%

28.3%

19.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.1%

28.9%

19.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio Novorizontino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Athletic Club has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

The ML Model estimate for Athletic Club aligns with the current prediction.

Grêmio Novorizontino - Athletic Club Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↑ (1.79)	3.28 ↓ (3.3)	4.86 ↑ (4.73)	6.3% (7.4%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for Grêmio Novorizontino - Athletic Club?

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Novorizontino will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Athletic will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Novorizontino: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

AH 0, 1st Half - Novorizontino (1.41) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Novorizontino (votes: 1 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.

Preview Facts

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 5 and 14).
Novorizontino is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Athletic's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
In this match, Novorizontino is the team to beat.
There will not play in Novorizontino: Dantas (Red Card) Marlon (Inactive) Renato Palm (Knee Injury) Vitinho (Inactive)
There will not play in Athletic: Edson Miranda (Inactive) Lincoln (Inactive)
There are questionable in Novorizontino: Airton (Inactive) Bruno Jose (Injury)
There are questionable in Athletic: Chico Geraldes (Injury) Joao Miguel (Injury)
In the last 1 head-to-head match, Novorizontino won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

How many head-to-head matches has Grêmio Novorizontino won against Athletic Club?

Grêmio Novorizontino has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Athletic Club won against Grêmio Novorizontino?

Athletic Club has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Grêmio Novorizontino - Athletic Club were as follows:

17.05.2025 Athletic Club - Grêmio Novorizontino 0:2

Latest results of Grêmio Novorizontino

15.09.2025 Ferroviária - Grêmio Novorizontino 1:2 ✺

08.09.2025 Grêmio Novorizontino - Atlético Goianiense 1:1 ✺

30.08.2025 Athletico Paranaense - Grêmio Novorizontino 2:1 ✺

22.08.2025 Criciúma - Grêmio Novorizontino 2:0 ✺

14.08.2025 Grêmio Novorizontino - Coritiba 1:2 ✺

Latest results of Athletic Club

14.09.2025 Athletic Club - Botafogo SP 2:0 ✺

08.09.2025 Vila Nova - Athletic Club 1:1 ✺

31.08.2025 Volta Redonda - Athletic Club 0:2 ✺

22.08.2025 Athletic Club - Chapecoense 0:4 ✺

18.08.2025 Athletic Club - Criciúma 1:1 ✺

Brazilian Serie B Table

2026

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Avai	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
2	Ceara	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
3	Sport Recife	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
4	Goias	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
5	Nautico	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
6	CRB	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
7	Criciuma	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
8	Vila Nova FC	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
9	Juventude	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
10	Ponte Preta	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
11	Fortaleza	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
12	Atletico GO	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
13	America MG	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
14	Botafogo SP	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
15	Londrina	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
16	Sao Bernardo	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
17	Cuiaba	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
18	Operario-PR	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
19	Novorizontino	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
20	Athletic Club	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

      Promotion ~ Serie A Betano
      Promotion ~ Serie B Superbet (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)
      Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )