Result
3:2
27/09/2025 at 19:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Apertura - Round 11
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Mexico | Amazon Prime Video, VIX+, ViX Premium |
 South-america | ViX Latin America |
 Usa | TUDN App, TUDN, Univision |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.84 | 1.65 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 41% | 59% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 72% (130/181) | 80% (208/259) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.84 | 1.65 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.69 | 2.52 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 7 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 19 | 21 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 72% (130/181) | 80% (208/259) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 53% (24/45) | 40% (17/42) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 60% (31/52) | 54% (39/72) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 30% (3/10) | 56% (5/9) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.93 | 1.15 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 16 | 11 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 8 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 70% (7/10) | 71% (10/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 28 | 30 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 10 | 15 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.52 | 2.69 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.52 | -0.31 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 1)
- 9', 1 - 0, Garcia M. E. ⚽, Gustavo Ferrareis (A),
- 17', 1 - 1, Jacob T. ⚽,
- 21', Pena A. ↓, De Buen D. ↑,
- 29', 2 - 1, Djurdjevic U. ⚽, Gustavo Ferrareis (A),
- 43', Rios De Alba V. H. ↓, Ramirez A. ↑,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Perez P. ↓, Martinez E. ↑,
- 46', Rosero K. ↓, Rojas J. ↑,
- 57', 2 - 2, Cambindo D. ⚽, Rossano F. (A),
- 64', Garcia M. E. ↓, Aguirre E. ↑,
- 66', De Buen D. 🟨,
- 68', Cambindo D. ↓, Monreal R. ↑,
- 76', Hernandez S. 🟨,
- 78', Mora A. ↓, San Martin J. ↑,
- 78', Djurdjevic U. ↓, Coccaro M. ↑,
- 79', Rodriguez I. 🟨,
- 90', Palavecino A. 🟨,
- 90+4', Ramirez A. 🟨,
- 90+4', 3 - 2, Gonzalez D. (Pen),
- 90+6', Rojas J. 🟨,
- 90+8', Unsain E. 🟨,
- 90+8', Jimenez L. 🟥,
- 90+9', Vargas C. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Atlas
30.9% | Draw
27% | Necaxa
42.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Atlas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Atlas's form might have worsened.Necaxa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Necaxa's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlas than the current prediction. (+9.4%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atlas, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Necaxa than the current prediction. (-7.5%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Necaxa, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Atlas - Necaxa Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.08 ↑
(2.36) |
3.69 ↓
(3.71) |
2.45 ↓
(2.64) |
0.4%
(7.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Atlas - Necaxa?
Users Predictions:
5 users predict this event. Necaxa will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%). High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Necaxa (votes: 2 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 17 and 14).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlas won 1.
- Neither of the teams is performing well right now.
- Necaxa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- There will not play in Atlas: Cruz C.
(Knee Injury)
Ortega E.
(Suspended)
Rodriguez J.
(Injury)
Zaldivar E.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Necaxa: Lara E.
(Elbow Injury)
- There are questionable in Atlas: Lozano J.
(Injury)
Pier R.
(Injury)
Rocha A.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlas won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 22:26. (average 1.1:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Atlas won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 5:14. (average 0.5:1.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Atlas won against Necaxa?
Atlas has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Necaxa won against Atlas?
Necaxa has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Atlas - Necaxa were as follows:
18.02.2025
Atlas
-
Necaxa
0:4
10.11.2024
Necaxa
-
Atlas
0:0
14.01.2024
Necaxa
-
Atlas
2:1
10.11.2023
Atlas
-
Necaxa
0:0
21.04.2023
Necaxa
-
Atlas
1:3
Mexican Liga MX Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Toluca | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 39:16 | 23 | 31 |
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 24:16 | 8 | 28 |
| 3 | Club America | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 27:13 | 14 | 27 |
| 4 | Monterrey | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 26:20 | 6 | 27 |
| 5 | Tigres UANL | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 27:13 | 14 | 26 |
| 6 | Pachuca | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 18:15 | 3 | 21 |
| 7 | Club Tijuana | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 26:17 | 9 | 20 |
| 8 | Guadalajara Chivas | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 20:18 | 2 | 20 |
| 9 | Juarez | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 18:17 | 1 | 19 |
| 10 | UNAM Pumas | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 16:20 | -4 | 14 |
| 11 | Atl. San Luis | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 19:20 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 | Santos Laguna | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 15:21 | -6 | 13 |
| 13 | Atlas | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21:29 | -8 | 13 |
| 14 | Club Leon | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 12:24 | -12 | 12 |
| 15 | Mazatlan FC | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 15:23 | -8 | 11 |
| 16 | Queretaro | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 14:25 | -11 | 11 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 14:26 | -12 | 9 |
| 18 | Puebla | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 14:32 | -18 | 8 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )
