Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football UEFA Champions League
Football UEFA Champions League Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid
Result
1:1 penalties
12/03/2025 at 16:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • EUROPE: Champions League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals
  • Referee: Marciniak S. (Pol)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
afghanistanAfghanistanAsr TV, Solh Sports 1
africaAfricaCANAL+ Sport 2, DStv Now, New World Sport App, SuperSport Football Plus, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport PSL
argentinaArgentinaDisney+, Fox Sports
armeniaArmeniaFast Sports
asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, TOD
australiaAustraliaStan Sport
austriaAustriaCanal+, Sky Go Austria
azerbaijanAzerbaijanCBC Sport
belgiumBelgiumPickx+ Sports 3, Pickx+ Sports 3, Play Sports 1, Play Sports 4
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
brazilBrazilMax
bulgariaBulgariaBTV Action, Voyo
canadaCanadaDAZN Canada
chileChileDisney+, ESPN Premium
colombiaColombiaDisney+, ESPN
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 1, HRT 2, HRTi, MAXtv To Go
cyprusCyprusCytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 3
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finlandFinlandMTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
franceFrancebeIN Sports MENA French 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 2, Free
georgiaGeorgiaSetanta Sports 1
germanyGermanyDAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 1 Deutsch
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hungaryHungaryRTL+
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indonesiaIndonesiabeIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
irelandIrelandRTE 2, RTE Player
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maltaMaltaGO TV, TSN Malta 8
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netherlandsNetherlandsZiggo Sport 2, Ziggo Sport 5
new-zealandNew-zealandDAZN New Zealand
nigeriaNigeriaSuperSport Football Plus, Supersport Maximo 1
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaESPN Norte, RUSH Sports 1 Caribbean
north-macedoniaNorth-macedoniaArena Premium 1, TDM Desporto
norwayNorwayTV2 Play, TV2 Sport Premium
pakistanPakistanTapmad
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peruPeruDisney+, ESPN
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN Connect
polandPolandCanal+ Extra 1, Canal+ Sport Online
portugalPortugalSport TV5
romaniaRomaniaDigi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 1, RTS 1, RTS Serbia 1
singaporeSingaporebeIN Sports 3, StarHub TV+
slovakiaSlovakiaKanal A, Voyo
south-africaSouth-africaSupersport Maximo 1, SuperSport PSL
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south-koreaSouth-koreaSPOTV Now
spainSpainLaLiga TV Bar, M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+, Orange Futbol 1
swedenSwedenViaplay, V Sport Fotbool
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taiwanTaiwanELTA Sports 1
thailandThailandAIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
turkeyTurkeyTabii
ukraineUkraineMEGOGO Futbol 1
united-kingdomUnited-kingdombeIN Sports MENA English 1, Discovery+ UK, Sport 24 International, TNT Sports 3
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaParamount+, SiriusXM FC, TUDN, UniMas, Univision
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+, ESPN, Inter
vietnamVietnamON Plus, TV 360
worldWorldDisney+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.391.15
Ball Possession
38%62%
Goal Attempts
1710
Shots on Goal
83
Shots off Goal
74
Blocked Shots
23
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
1010
Shots inside the Box
106
Shots outside the Box
74
Hit the Woodwork
00
Goalkeeper Saves
37
Free Kicks
1611
Offsides
11
Fouls
1116
Yellow Cards
43
Throw-ins
1620
Touches in the Opposition Box
2944
Passes
86% (440/510)93% (790/854)
Passes in the final third
76% (99/131)87% (293/336)
Crosses
14% (4/28)19% (5/27)
Tackles
69% (24/35)76% (19/25)
Clearances Total
3629
Interceptions
1111

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 1', 1 - 0, Gallagher C. ⚽, de Paul R. (A),
  • 39', Tchouameni A. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 59', Vinicius Junior 🟨,
  • 65', Tchouameni A. ↓, Camavinga E. ↑,
  • 65', Modric L. ↓, Lucas ↑,
  • 66', Simeone G. 🟨,
  • 68', Lenglet C. 🟨,
  • 70', Vinicius Junior (Pen),
  • 79', Rodrygo ↓, Diaz B. ↑,
  • 83', Mendy F. ↓, Garcia F. ↑,
  • 85', Gallagher C. ↓, Lino S. ↑,
  • 89', Simeone G. ↓, Correa A. ↑,
  • 89', Griezmann A. ↓, Sorloth A. ↑,
  • 90+4', de Paul R. ↓, Molina N. ↑,
  • Extra Time (0 - 0)
  • 91', Lenglet C. ↓, Le Normand R. ↑,
  • 98', Mandava R. ↓, Azpilicueta C. ↑,
  • 113', Azpilicueta C. 🟨,
  • 115', Lucas 🟨,
  • 115', Llorente M. 🟨,
  • 115', Vinicius Junior ↓, Endrick ↑,
  • Penalties (2 - 4)
  • 1, Mbappe K. (Pen),
  • 1, Sorloth A. (Pen),
  • 2, Bellingham J. (Pen),
  • 2, Alvarez J. (Pen),
  • 3, Valverde F. (Pen),
  • 3, Correa A. (Pen),
  • 4, Lucas (Pen),
  • 4, Llorente M. (Pen),
  • 5, Rudiger A. (Pen),

Chances of winning


Atlético Madrid
35.5%		Draw
27.4%		Real Madrid
37.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
36.8% 26.6% 36.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37% 26.7% 36.4%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Atlético Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)
  • Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (+1.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (-0.7%)
    •

    Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.71 ↑
    (2.61)    		 3.51 ↓
    (3.61)    		 2.6 ↓
    (2.63)    		 3.8%
    (4%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

  • Watch this match and UEFA Champions League with fubo (for US customers)
  • Network on : Telemundo (KUTU-Tulsa, OK)
    •
    What is the prediction for Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid?
  • Users Predictions: 86 users predict this event. Atlético will win (votes: 30 - 34.9%). Real will win (votes: 26 - 30.2%). It will Tie (votes: 30 - 34.9%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético: 24.8% – 45%.
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • 2nd leg. 1st leg result: 1-2.
    • Last 5 head-to-head matches Atlético won 1.
    • Recent matches Atlético is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
    • Real is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).
    • Real could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
    • Recently Atlético have a series of guest games.
    • The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.
    • There will not play in Real: Carvajal D. (Knee Injury) Ceballos D. (Muscle Injury) Eder Militao (Knee Injury) Vallejo J. (Thigh Injury)
    • Last 20 head-to-head matches Atlético won 4 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 27:32 (average 1.4:1.6).
    • Including matches at home between the teams Atlético won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 12:10 (average 1.5:1.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid were as follows:
    04.03.2025 Real Madrid - Atlético Madrid 2:1
    08.02.2025 Real Madrid - Atlético Madrid 1:1
    29.09.2024 Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid 1:1
    04.02.2024 Real Madrid - Atlético Madrid 1:1
    18.01.2024 Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid 4:2
    Latest results of Atlético Madrid
    09.03.2025 Getafe - Atlético Madrid 2:1 ✺
    04.03.2025 Real Madrid - Atlético Madrid 2:1 ✺
    01.03.2025 Atlético Madrid - Athletic Bilbao 1:0 ✺
    25.02.2025 Barcelona - Atlético Madrid 4:4 ✺
    22.02.2025 Valencia - Atlético Madrid 0:3 ✺
    Latest results of Real Madrid
    09.03.2025 Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano 2:1 ✺
    04.03.2025 Real Madrid - Atlético Madrid 2:1 ✺
    01.03.2025 Betis - Real Madrid 2:1 ✺
    26.02.2025 Real Sociedad - Real Madrid 0:1 ✺
    23.02.2025 Real Madrid - Girona 2:0 ✺
    Draw
    2025/26

    1/8-finals
    1LevadiaRFS0 : 1, 0 : 1
    2Iberia 1999Malmo FF1 : 3, 1 : 3
    3FC CopenhagenBye
    4DritaDifferdange3 : 2, 1 : 0
    5Lech PoznanBye
    6EgnatiaBreidablik0 : 5, 1 : 0
    7VikingurLincoln Red Imps0 : 1, 2 : 3
    8ByeCrvena zvezda
    9KuPSMilsami0 : 0, 1 : 0
    10O. LjubljanaKairat Almaty0 : 2, 1 : 1
    11Slovan BratislavaBye
    12VirtusZrinjski1 : 2, 0 : 2
    13RijekaBye
    14LudogoretsDin. Minsk2 : 2, 1 : 0
    15NoahBuducnost2 : 2, 1 : 0
    16ByeFerencvaros
    17ZalgirisHamrun0 : 3, 2 : 0
    18ByeDyn. Kyiv
    19PafosBye
    20ByeMaccabi Tel Aviv
    21TNSShkendija1 : 2, 0 : 0
    22FCSBInter Escaldes1 : 2, 3 : 1
    23ShelbourneLinfield1 : 1, 1 : 0
    24ByeQarabag
    25BrannBye
    26ByeSalzburg
    28ByeClub Brugge KV
    29RangersBye
    30ByePanathinaikos
    31PlzenBye
    32ByeServette
    33NiceBye
    36ByeBenfica
    37FeyenoordBye
    40ByeFenerbahce

    Quarter-finals
    1RFSMalmo FF1 : 4
    2FC CopenhagenDrita2 : 0
    3Lech PoznanBreidablik7 : 1
    4Lincoln Red ImpsCrvena zvezda0 : 1
    5KuPSKairat Almaty2 : 0
    6Slovan BratislavaZrinjski4 : 0
    7RijekaLudogorets0 : 0
    8NoahFerencvaros1 : 2
    9HamrunDyn. Kyiv0 : 3
    10PafosMaccabi Tel Aviv1 : 1
    11ShkendijaFCSB1 : 0
    12ShelbourneQarabag0 : 3
    13BrannSalzburg1 : 4
    14ByeClub Brugge KV
    15RangersPanathinaikos2 : 0
    16PlzenServette0 : 1
    17NiceBye
    18ByeBenfica
    19FeyenoordBye
    20ByeFenerbahce

    Semi-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4
    3TBD #5TBD #6
    4TBD #7TBD #8
    5TBD #9TBD #10
    6TBD #11TBD #12
    7TBD #13Club Brugge KV
    8TBD #15TBD #16
    9NiceBenfica
    10FeyenoordFenerbahce
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