Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer UEFA Champions League
Soccer UEFA Champions League Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid
Result
1:1 penalties
12/03/2025 at 16:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • EUROPE: Champions League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals
  • Referee: Marciniak S. (Pol)
Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.391.15
Ball Possession
38%62%
Goal Attempts
1710
Shots on Goal
83
Shots off Goal
74
Blocked Shots
23
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
1010
Shots inside the Box
106
Shots outside the Box
74
Hit the Woodwork
00
Goalkeeper Saves
37
Free Kicks
1611
Offsides
11
Fouls
1116
Yellow Cards
43
Throw-ins
1620
Touches in the Opposition Box
2944
Passes
86% (440/510)93% (790/854)
Passes in the final third
76% (99/131)87% (293/336)
Crosses
14% (4/28)19% (5/27)
Tackles
69% (24/35)76% (19/25)
Clearances Total
3629
Interceptions
1111

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 1', 1 - 0, Gallagher C. ⚽, de Paul R. (A),
  • 39', Tchouameni A. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 59', Vinicius Junior 🟨,
  • 65', Tchouameni A. ↓, Camavinga E. ↑,
  • 65', Modric L. ↓, Lucas ↑,
  • 66', Simeone G. 🟨,
  • 68', Lenglet C. 🟨,
  • 70', Vinicius Junior (Pen),
  • 79', Rodrygo ↓, Diaz B. ↑,
  • 83', Mendy F. ↓, Garcia F. ↑,
  • 85', Gallagher C. ↓, Lino S. ↑,
  • 89', Simeone G. ↓, Correa A. ↑,
  • 89', Griezmann A. ↓, Sorloth A. ↑,
  • 90+4', de Paul R. ↓, Molina N. ↑,
  • Extra Time (0 - 0)
  • 91', Lenglet C. ↓, Le Normand R. ↑,
  • 98', Mandava R. ↓, Azpilicueta C. ↑,
  • 113', Azpilicueta C. 🟨,
  • 115', Lucas 🟨,
  • 115', Llorente M. 🟨,
  • 115', Vinicius Junior ↓, Endrick ↑,
  • Penalties (2 - 4)
  • 1, Mbappe K. (Pen),
  • 1, Sorloth A. (Pen),
  • 2, Bellingham J. (Pen),
  • 2, Alvarez J. (Pen),
  • 3, Valverde F. (Pen),
  • 3, Correa A. (Pen),
  • 4, Lucas (Pen),
  • 4, Llorente M. (Pen),
  • 5, Rudiger A. (Pen),

Chances of winning


Atlético Madrid
35.5%		Draw
27.4%		Real Madrid
37.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
36.8% 26.6% 36.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37% 26.7% 36.4%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Atlético Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)
  • Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (+1.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (-0.7%)
    •

    Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.71 ↑
    (2.61)    		 3.51 ↓
    (3.61)    		 2.6 ↓
    (2.63)    		 3.8%
    (4%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

  • Watch this match and UEFA Champions League with fubo (for US customers)
  • Network on : Telemundo (KUTU-Tulsa, OK)
    •
    What is the prediction for Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid?
  • Users Predictions: 86 users predict this event. Atlético will win (votes: 30 - 34.9%). Real will win (votes: 26 - 30.2%). It will Tie (votes: 30 - 34.9%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético: 24.8% – 45%.
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • 2nd leg. 1st leg result: 1-2.
    • Last 5 head-to-head matches Atlético won 1.
    • Recent matches Atlético is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
    • Real is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).
    • Real could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
    • Recently Atlético have a series of guest games.
    • The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.
    • There will not play in Real: Carvajal D. (Knee Injury) Ceballos D. (Muscle Injury) Eder Militao (Knee Injury) Vallejo J. (Thigh Injury)
    • Last 20 head-to-head matches Atlético won 4 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 27:32 (average 1.4:1.6).
    • Including matches at home between the teams Atlético won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 12:10 (average 1.5:1.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid were as follows:
    04.03.2025 Real Madrid - Atlético Madrid 2:1
    08.02.2025 Real Madrid - Atlético Madrid 1:1
    29.09.2024 Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid 1:1
    04.02.2024 Real Madrid - Atlético Madrid 1:1
    18.01.2024 Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid 4:2
    Latest results of Atlético Madrid
    09.03.2025 Getafe - Atlético Madrid 2:1 ✺
    04.03.2025 Real Madrid - Atlético Madrid 2:1 ✺
    01.03.2025 Atlético Madrid - Athletic Bilbao 1:0 ✺
    25.02.2025 Barcelona - Atlético Madrid 4:4 ✺
    22.02.2025 Valencia - Atlético Madrid 0:3 ✺
    Latest results of Real Madrid
    09.03.2025 Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano 2:1 ✺
    04.03.2025 Real Madrid - Atlético Madrid 2:1 ✺
    01.03.2025 Betis - Real Madrid 2:1 ✺
    26.02.2025 Real Sociedad - Real Madrid 0:1 ✺
    23.02.2025 Real Madrid - Girona 2:0 ✺
    Draw
    2025/26

    1/8-finals
    1LevadiaRFS
    2Iberia 1999Malmo FF
    3ZalgirisHamrun
    4ByeDyn. Kyiv
    5PafosBye
    6ByeMaccabi Tel Aviv
    7VikingurLincoln Red Imps
    8ByeCrvena zvezda
    9NoahBuducnost
    10ByeFerencvaros
    11Lech PoznanBye
    12EgnatiaBreidablik
    13FC CopenhagenBye
    14DritaDifferdange
    15RijekaBye
    16LudogoretsDin. Minsk
    17TNSShkendija
    18FCSBInter Escaldes
    19Slovan BratislavaBye
    20VirtusZrinjski
    21ShelbourneLinfield
    22ByeQarabag
    23KuPSMilsami
    24O. LjubljanaKairat Almaty
    25BrannBye
    26ByeSalzburg
    27PlzenBye
    28ByeServette
    29RangersBye
    30ByePanathinaikos

    Quarter-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3Dyn. Kyiv
    3PafosMaccabi Tel Aviv
    4TBD #7Crvena zvezda
    5TBD #9Ferencvaros
    6Lech PoznanTBD #12
    7FC CopenhagenTBD #14
    8RijekaTBD #16
    9TBD #17TBD #18
    10Slovan BratislavaTBD #20
    11TBD #21Qarabag
    12TBD #23TBD #24
    13BrannSalzburg
    14PlzenServette
    15RangersPanathinaikos
    Which TV channels are streaming of Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid?
    It is being streamed on various channels, including:
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