Result
2:0
04/04/2026 at 21:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga de Expansion MX - Clausura - Round 13
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Mexico | AYM Sports |
 Usa | Aym Sports |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 53% | 47% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 29', Sandoval L. 🟨,
- 39', 1 - 0, Aguayo J. ⚽,
- 45', Hernandez S. A. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 49', Zamora D. 🟨,
- 52', Ochoa Brandon 🟨,
- 52', Sandoval L. ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
- 53', Aguilera A. D. ↓, Figueroa B. ↑,
- 55', 2 - 0, Gil O. ⚽, De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. (A),
- 70', Andrade A. ↓, Munoz Z. ↑,
- 70', Moreno G. ↓, Nambo M. ↑,
- 75', Camacho Lastra R. E. ↓, Brigido J. ↑,
- 75', De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. ↓, Perez J. ↑,
- 75', Gil O. ↓, Cisneros C. ↑,
- 77', Ochoa Brandon ↓, Esqueda D. ↑,
- 88', Munoz D. ↓, Flores B. ↑,
- 90+4', Martinez J. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Leones Negros UdeG
34.9% | Draw
27.5% | Atlético Morelia
37.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Leones Negros UdeG has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Leones Negros UdeG's form might have worsened.Atlético Morelia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Atlético Morelia's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leones Negros UdeG than the current prediction. (+9.8%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Leones Negros UdeG, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Morelia than the current prediction. (-10.2%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Atlético Morelia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Leones Negros UdeG - Atlético Morelia Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.65 ↑
(2.1) |
3.37 ↑
(3.22) |
2.46 ↓
(3.24) |
8%
(9.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Leones Negros UdeG - Atlético Morelia?
Users Predictions:
4 users predict this event. Atlético Morelia will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 15 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leones Negros UdeG won 4.
- Recent form of Leones Negros UdeG has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Atlético Morelia's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Atlético Morelia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
- In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Leones Negros UdeG won 9 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 19:11. (average 1.3:0.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, Leones Negros UdeG won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:3. (average 1.1:0.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Leones Negros UdeG won against Atlético Morelia?
Leones Negros UdeG has won 7 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Atlético Morelia won against Leones Negros UdeG?
Atlético Morelia has won 3 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Leones Negros UdeG - Atlético Morelia were as follows:
26.10.2025
Atlético Morelia
-
Leones Negros UdeG
2:3
11.05.2025
Leones Negros UdeG
-
Atlético Morelia
2:0
03.05.2025
Atlético Morelia
-
Leones Negros UdeG
2:0
20.03.2025
Leones Negros UdeG
-
Atlético Morelia
2:1
05.10.2024
Atlético Morelia
-
Leones Negros UdeG
0:2
Latest results of Leones Negros UdeG
Latest results of Atlético Morelia
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX Table
Clausura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Tepatitlan de Morelos ✔ | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 21:10 | 11 | 26 |
| 2 | Atl. Morelia | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 18:11 | 7 | 23 |
| 3 | Cancun | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 22:16 | 6 | 22 |
| 4 | Atletico La Paz | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 21:11 | 10 | 21 |
| 5 | Tapatio | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 27:21 | 6 | 20 |
| 6 | Zacatecas Mineros | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 19:20 | -1 | 20 |
| 7 | Atlante | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 20:16 | 4 | 19 |
| 8 | Irapuato | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 27:24 | 3 | 19 |
| 9 | Tlaxcala | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 14:15 | -1 | 19 |
| 10 | Jaiba Brava | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 14:15 | -1 | 18 |
| 11 | Venados | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 23:23 | 0 | 15 |
| 12 | Alebrijes Oaxaca | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 17:28 | -11 | 13 |
| 13 | Correcaminos | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13:24 | -11 | 12 |
| 14 | Leones Negros | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14:23 | -9 | 11 |
| 15 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 14:27 | -13 | 10 |
Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Clinched Spots for Teams
Tepatitlan de Morelos is Qualified for Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
