Result
2:0
11/05/2025 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga de Expansion MX - Clausura - Play Offs - Semi-finals
- Referee: Armenta J. (Mex)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 Colombia | Disney+ |
 Mexico | Amazon Prime Video, Claro Sports, Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN 4, Fox Sports, Hi! Sports, TVC Deportes 2, TVC Deportes |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Venezuela | Disney+, Inter |
 World | Pluto TV |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 52% | 48% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 9 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 39', Torres U. 🟥,
- 42', Trejo C. 🟨,
- 43', Carreon A. ↓, Rabago F. ↑,
- 45+7', De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 46', Fierro C. ↓, Perez J. ↑,
- 46', Marchand J. ↓, Flores B. ↑,
- 55', 1 - 0, De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. ⚽,
- 56', Trejo C. ↓, Polydoro L. ↑,
- 59', 2 - 0, Ocejo Zazueta J. A. (Pen),
- 66', Martinez J. ↓, Nambo M. ↑,
- 66', Lopez R. ↓, Yrizar P. ↑,
- 67', Perez J. 🟨,
- 70', De Jesus Bravo Santiago A. ↓, Flores L. ↑,
- 70', Ocejo Zazueta J. A. ↓, Rivera E. ↑,
- 73', Gallegos D. ↓, Maleck J. ↑,
- 84', Perez J. 🟥,
- 88', Torres Rodriguez R. D. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Leones Negros UdeG
52.2% | Draw
25% | Atlético Morelia
22.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Leones Negros UdeG has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)Atlético Morelia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leones Negros UdeG than the current prediction. (-4.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Morelia than the current prediction. (+3.5%)
Leones Negros UdeG - Atlético Morelia Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.78 ↓
(1.9) |
3.72 ↑
(3.5) |
4.09 ↑
(3.4) |
7.3%
(10.6%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Leones Negros UdeG - Atlético Morelia?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Leones Negros UdeG (votes: 2 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
Leones Negros UdeG will win
(4 of 5 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 44.94% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- 1st leg result: 0-2. 2nd leg.
- This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leones Negros UdeG won 4.
- Leones Negros UdeG has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Atlético Morelia is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Atlético Morelia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Leones Negros UdeG is considered a favorite.
- In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Leones Negros UdeG won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:9. (average 1.1:0.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, Leones Negros UdeG won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 1:0.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Leones Negros UdeG won against Atlético Morelia?
Leones Negros UdeG has won 5 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Atlético Morelia won against Leones Negros UdeG?
Atlético Morelia has won 3 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Leones Negros UdeG - Atlético Morelia were as follows:
03.05.2025
Atlético Morelia
-
Leones Negros UdeG
2:0
20.03.2025
Leones Negros UdeG
-
Atlético Morelia
2:1
05.10.2024
Atlético Morelia
-
Leones Negros UdeG
0:2
04.04.2024
Atlético Morelia
-
Leones Negros UdeG
0:2
18.11.2023
Leones Negros UdeG
-
Atlético Morelia
2:0
Latest results of Leones Negros UdeG
Latest results of Atlético Morelia
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Cancun | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10:0 | 10 | 12 |
| 2 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7:2 | 5 | 8 |
| 3 | Zacatecas Mineros | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8:4 | 4 | 8 |
| 4 | Leones Negros | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7:5 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Tapatio | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7:5 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Tampico Madero | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Irapuato | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9:9 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Correcaminos | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5:4 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Atlante | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7:4 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | Atl. Morelia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:7 | -3 | 4 |
| 11 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1:7 | -6 | 3 |
| 12 | Atletico La Paz | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5:8 | -3 | 2 |
| 13 | Alebrijes Oaxaca | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3:6 | -3 | 1 |
| 14 | Venados | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5:11 | -6 | 1 |
| 15 | Tlaxcala | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1:9 | -8 | 1 |
Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
