Result
2:1
10/05/2025 at 11:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Ligue 2 - Round 34
- Referee: Leleu M. (Fra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
---|
France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 10, Free |
Match Stats
| |
---|
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
2.04 | 0.21 |
Ball Possession |
---|
49% | 51% |
Total shots |
---|
24 | 4 |
Shots on target |
---|
10 | 2 |
Big Chances |
---|
0 | 1 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
12 | 1 |
Passes |
---|
84% (306/365) | 85% (343/404) |
Yellow Cards |
---|
0 | 2 |
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
2.04 | 0.21 |
xG on target (xGOT) |
---|
1.39 | 0.28 |
Total shots |
---|
24 | 4 |
Shots on target |
---|
10 | 2 |
Shots off target |
---|
10 | 2 |
Blocked Shots |
---|
4 | 0 |
Shots inside the Box |
---|
17 | 2 |
Shots outside the Box |
---|
7 | 2 |
Hit the Woodwork |
---|
0 | 0 |
Headed Goals |
---|
1 | 0 |
Big Chances |
---|
0 | 1 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
12 | 1 |
Touches in opposition box |
---|
34 | 6 |
Accurate through passes |
---|
0 | 0 |
Offsides |
---|
4 | 3 |
Free Kicks |
---|
8 | 11 |
Passes |
---|
84% (306/365) | 85% (343/404) |
Long passes |
---|
66% (31/47) | 37% (17/46) |
Passes in final third |
---|
71% (88/124) | 62% (43/69) |
Crosses |
---|
36% (10/28) | 14% (1/7) |
Expected assists (xA) |
---|
1.42 | 0.17 |
Throw-ins |
---|
26 | 17 |
Fouls |
---|
11 | 8 |
Tackles |
---|
80% (12/15) | 87% (13/15) |
Duels won |
---|
49 | 35 |
Clearances |
---|
6 | 31 |
Interceptions |
---|
5 | 5 |
Errors leading to shot |
---|
0 | 0 |
Errors leading to goal |
---|
0 | 1 |
Goalkeeper Saves |
---|
1 | 8 |
xGOT faced |
---|
0.28 | 1.39 |
Goals prevented |
---|
-0.72 | -0.61 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 3', Lebreton N. 🟨,
- 24', 1 - 0, Guidi D. ⚽, Ducrocq T. (A),
- 28', 1 - 1, Najim I. ⚽, Brahimi B. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Ntim E. ↓, Verhaeghe R. ↑,
- 47', Le Bihan M. 🟨,
- 61', Le Bihan M. ↓, Ba Loua A. ↑,
- 61', Grandsir S. ↓, Autret M. ↑,
- 64', Sebas J. ↓, Ble M. ↑,
- 64', Bohnert F. ↓, Meynadier T. ↑,
- 72', 2 - 1, Ariss Z. ⚽, Tomi F. (A),
- 74', Brahimi B. ↓, Rajot L. ↑,
- 74', Najim I. ↓, Tome G. ↑,
- 77', Inao Oulai C. ↓, Vincent C. ↑,
- 77', Cisse L. ↓, Tramoni L. ↑,
- 86', Boutrah A. ↓, Boumaaoui M. A. ↑,
Highlights
https://tinyurl.com/3xn6r7dy
Chances of winning
Bastia 64.3% | Draw 20.7% | Caen 15% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Bastia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Bastia's performance.Caen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bastia than the current prediction. (-12.4%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Bastia that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caen than the current prediction. (+5.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Caen could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Bastia - Caen Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now (Initially) |
1.47 ↓ (1.62) |
4.54 ↑ (3.9) |
6.27 ↑ (5.16) |
6.2% (6.9%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Bastia - Caen?
Users Predictions:
Bastia will win
(19 of 20 users predict this - 95%).
Confidence interval (95%): 85.45% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Bastia will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 9 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ National).
- Caen is Relegated to National
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bastia won 1.
- Bastia has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Caen is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Caen may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Bastia is seen as the favorite.
- There will not play in Bastia: Aiki A.
(Injury)
Akueson G.
(Injury)
Etoga L.
(Injury)
Guevara J.
(Injury)
Janneh J.
(Thigh Injury)
- There will not play in Caen: Gaucho Debohi D.
(Injury)
Henry V.
(Inactive)
Lecoeuche Q.
(Inactive)
Ntim E.
(Thigh Injury)
Rajot L.
(Inactive)
Thomas R.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
- There are questionable in Caen: Autret M.
(Inactive)
- In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Bastia won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 14:21. (average 0.9:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Bastia won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:10. (average 1.4:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Bastia won against Caen?
Bastia has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Caen won against Bastia?
Caen has won 4 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Bastia - Caen were as follows:
02.11.2024
Caen
-
Bastia
2:0
23.01.2024
Bastia
-
Caen
1:2
02.12.2023
Caen
-
Bastia
1:0
03.02.2023
Caen
-
Bastia
3:1
26.12.2022
Bastia
-
Caen
1:0
French Ligue 2 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
1 | Grenoble | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | Le Mans | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
3 | Nancy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
4 | St Etienne | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
5 | Amiens | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
6 | Bastia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
7 | Clermont | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
8 | Guingamp | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
9 | Montpellier | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
10 | Reims | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
11 | Troyes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
12 | Laval | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
13 | Pau FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
14 | Rodez | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
15 | Annecy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
16 | Dunkerque | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
17 | Red Star | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
Promotion ~ Ligue 1
Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)
Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Ligue 2 (Relegation)
Relegation ~ National