Result
2:1
10/05/2025 at 11:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Ligue 2 - Round 34
- Referee: Leleu M. (Fra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
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|---|
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 10, Free |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.04 | 0.21 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 49% | 51% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 24 | 4 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 10 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (306/365) | 85% (343/404) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.04 | 0.21 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.39 | 0.28 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 24 | 4 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 10 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 10 | 2 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 0 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 17 | 2 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 34 | 6 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (306/365) | 85% (343/404) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 66% (31/47) | 37% (17/46) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 71% (88/124) | 62% (43/69) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 36% (10/28) | 14% (1/7) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.42 | 0.17 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 26 | 17 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 8 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 80% (12/15) | 87% (13/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 49 | 35 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 6 | 31 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 8 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.28 | 1.39 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.72 | -0.61 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 3', Lebreton N. 🟨,
- 24', 1 - 0, Guidi D. ⚽, Ducrocq T. (A),
- 28', 1 - 1, Najim I. ⚽, Brahimi B. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Ntim E. ↓, Verhaeghe R. ↑,
- 47', Le Bihan M. 🟨,
- 61', Le Bihan M. ↓, Ba Loua A. ↑,
- 61', Grandsir S. ↓, Autret M. ↑,
- 64', Sebas J. ↓, Ble M. ↑,
- 64', Bohnert F. ↓, Meynadier T. ↑,
- 72', 2 - 1, Ariss Z. ⚽, Tomi F. (A),
- 74', Brahimi B. ↓, Rajot L. ↑,
- 74', Najim I. ↓, Tome G. ↑,
- 77', Inao Oulai C. ↓, Vincent C. ↑,
- 77', Cisse L. ↓, Tramoni L. ↑,
- 86', Boutrah A. ↓, Boumaaoui M. A. ↑,
Highlights
https://tinyurl.com/3xn6r7dy
Chances of winning
Bastia
64.3% | Draw
20.7% | Caen
15% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Bastia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Bastia's performance.Caen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bastia than the current prediction. (-12.4%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Bastia that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caen than the current prediction. (+5.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Caen could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Bastia - Caen Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.47 ↓
(1.62) |
4.54 ↑
(3.9) |
6.27 ↑
(5.16) |
6.2%
(6.9%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Bastia - Caen?
Users Predictions:
Bastia will win
(19 of 20 users predict this - 95%).
Confidence interval (95%): 85.45% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Bastia will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 9 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ National).
- Caen is Relegated to National
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bastia won 1.
- Bastia has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Caen is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Caen may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Bastia is seen as the favorite.
- There will not play in Bastia: Aiki A.
(Injury)
Akueson G.
(Injury)
Etoga L.
(Injury)
Guevara J.
(Injury)
Janneh J.
(Thigh Injury)
- There will not play in Caen: Gaucho Debohi D.
(Injury)
Henry V.
(Inactive)
Lecoeuche Q.
(Inactive)
Ntim E.
(Thigh Injury)
Rajot L.
(Inactive)
Thomas R.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
- There are questionable in Caen: Autret M.
(Inactive)
- In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Bastia won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 14:21. (average 0.9:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Bastia won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:10. (average 1.4:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Bastia won against Caen?
Bastia has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Caen won against Bastia?
Caen has won 4 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Bastia - Caen were as follows:
02.11.2024
Caen
-
Bastia
2:0
23.01.2024
Bastia
-
Caen
1:2
02.12.2023
Caen
-
Bastia
1:0
03.02.2023
Caen
-
Bastia
3:1
26.12.2022
Bastia
-
Caen
1:0
French Ligue 2 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Grenoble | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Le Mans | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Nancy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | St Etienne | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Amiens | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Bastia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Clermont | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Guingamp | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Montpellier | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Reims | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Troyes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Laval | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Pau FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Rodez | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Annecy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Dunkerque | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Red Star | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
Promotion ~ Ligue 1
Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)
Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Ligue 2 (Relegation)
Relegation ~ National
