Pau vs Bastia – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

06/03/2026 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Nouste Camp (Pau).

Ligue 2 - Round 26
Referee: Valnet A. (Fra)
Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free

Match Stats


Expected goals (xG)
0.53	1.49
Ball possession
44%	56%
Total shots
7	17
Shots on target
2	5
Big chances
1	1
Corner kicks
4	5
Passes
82% (304/373)	88% (407/465)
Yellow cards
1	3
Expected goals (xG)
0.53	1.49
xG on target (xGOT)
0.89	0.67
Total shots
7	17
Shots on target
2	5
Shots off target
4	8
Blocked shots
1	4
Shots inside the box
3	7
Shots outside the box
3	10
Hit the woodwork
0	0
Big chances
1	1
Corner kicks
4	5
Touches in opposition box
9	15
Accurate through passes
0	1
Offsides
1	1
Free kicks
19	20
Passes
82% (304/373)	88% (407/465)
Long passes
38% (23/61)	60% (28/47)
Passes in final third
65% (42/65)	73% (84/115)
Crosses
27% (3/11)	9% (2/23)
Expected assists (xA)
0.76	1.16
Throw ins
19	17
Fouls
20	19
Tackles
86% (12/14)	77% (10/13)
Duels won
50	52
Clearances
22	13
Interceptions
5	12
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	1
Goalkeeper saves
3	0
xGOT faced
0.67	0.89
Goals prevented
-1.33	-1.11

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (2 - 1)
4', 1 - 0, Sissoko O. ⚽, Dong K. (A),
13', 1 - 1, Eickmayer J. ⚽,
31', 2 - 1, Anziani J. ⚽, Dong K. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Dong K. ↓, Touzghar R. ↑,
46', Tomi F. ↓, Beliandjou R. ↑,
51', Boutrah A. 🟨,
57', Briancon A. ↓, Fall C. ↑,
60', Janneh J. ↓, Zaouai A. ↑,
66', Guevara J. 🟨,
69', Akueson G. 🟨,
74', Ducrocq T. ↓, Vincent C. ↑,
74', Boutrah A. ↓, Karamoko I. ↑,
79', Pouilly T. ↓, Glossoa N. ↑,
83', Sissoko O. ↓, Sadik O. ↑,
84', Versini G. ↓, Bobichon A. ↑,
84', Bohnert F. ↓, Lebas da Silva V. ↑,
85', Raveyre N. 🟨,
90+3', 2 - 2, Vincent C. ⚽,

Chances of winning

Pau
38.7%

Draw
29.5%

Bastia
31.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

28.1%

29.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44%

27.4%

28.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Bastia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pau than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pau, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bastia than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Pau - Bastia Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.41 ↑ (2.16)	3.19 ↓ (3.3)	2.98 ↓ (3.19)	6.4% (8%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for Pau - Bastia?

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Pau will win (votes: 8 - 44.4%). Bastia will win (votes: 3 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 38.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Pau: 21.4% – 67.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Pau (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 4 - 80%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Bastia (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Bastia (3.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Pau (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Bastia (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 11 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ National).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pau won 1.
Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
Pau is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
There will not play in Pau: Gaspar J. (Inactive) Kante (Inactive) Zuliani E. (Inactive)
There will not play in Bastia: Bathily Y. (Injury) Djedje D. (Injury) Guidi D. (Inactive) Parravicini N. (Hernia) Sebas J. (Red Card) Zilliox N. (Inactive)
In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Pau won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:14. (average 1.4:1.6).
Including home matches between the teams, Pau won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:9. (average 1.5:2.3).

How many head-to-head matches has Pau won against Bastia?

Pau has won 1 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Bastia won against Pau?

Bastia has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Pau - Bastia were as follows:

15.08.2025 Bastia - Pau 1:1

24.01.2025 Bastia - Pau 1:1

22.10.2024 Pau - Bastia 1:1

10.05.2024 Pau - Bastia 1:2

26.09.2023 Bastia - Pau 1:4

Latest results of Pau

28.02.2026 Pau - Saint-Étienne 0:3 ✺

21.02.2026 Troyes - Pau 4:3 ✺

13.02.2026 Pau - Boulogne 1:2 ✺

06.02.2026 Red Star - Pau 0:3 ✺

30.01.2026 Laval - Pau 0:1 ✺

Latest results of Bastia

27.02.2026 Bastia - Annecy 0:2 ✺

20.02.2026 Dunkerque - Bastia 1:1 ✺

16.02.2026 Bastia - Troyes 0:0 ✺

06.02.2026 Reims - Bastia 0:0 ✺

30.01.2026 Bastia - Nancy 0:0 ✺

French Ligue 2 Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Troyes	29	17	7	5	51:30	21	58
2	St Etienne	30	17	6	7	53:31	22	57
3	Le Mans	30	14	12	4	45:29	16	54
4	Red Star	30	14	9	7	36:30	6	51
5	Reims	30	12	12	6	43:28	15	48
6	Rodez	29	11	12	6	36:34	2	45
7	Montpellier	30	12	8	10	35:27	8	44
8	Annecy	30	12	7	11	36:34	2	43
9	Pau FC	30	11	9	10	41:48	-7	42
10	Dunkerque	30	10	10	10	45:37	8	40
11	Guingamp	30	10	10	10	39:42	-3	40
12	Boulogne	30	9	9	12	30:38	-8	36
13	Grenoble	30	6	14	10	29:36	-7	32
14	Clermont	30	7	9	14	34:41	-7	30
15	Nancy	30	7	9	14	27:43	-16	30
16	Laval	30	4	13	13	26:43	-17	25
17	Amiens	30	6	6	18	34:52	-18	24
18	Bastia	30	3	12	15	19:36	-17	21

      Promotion ~ Ligue 1
      Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)
      Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)
      Ligue 2 (Relegation)
      Relegation ~ National