Pau vs Saint-Étienne – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

28/02/2026 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Nouste Camp (Pau).

Ligue 2 - Round 25
Referee: Souifi A. (Fra)
Where to Watch on TV:


Andorra	beIN Sports 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA French 1, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Japan	DAZN Japan
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Serbia	Arena Sport 6
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2 MAX
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Ukraine
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz

Match Stats


Expected goals (xG)
0.38	2.49
Ball possession
53%	47%
Total shots
9	10
Shots on target
4	6
Big chances
1	2
Corner kicks
5	4
Passes
85% (420/492)	85% (376/442)
Yellow cards
3	1
Expected goals (xG)
0.38	2.49
xG on target (xGOT)
0.27	2.84
Total shots
9	10
Shots on target
4	6
Shots off target
3	1
Blocked shots
2	3
Shots inside the box
3	7
Shots outside the box
6	3
Hit the woodwork
0	0
Big chances
1	2
Corner kicks
5	4
Touches in opposition box
12	12
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
0	1
Free kicks
19	14
Passes
85% (420/492)	85% (376/442)
Long passes
59% (37/63)	44% (15/34)
Passes in final third
72% (73/101)	62% (55/89)
Crosses
17% (4/23)	43% (3/7)
Expected assists (xA)
0.46	1.59
Throw ins
31	18
Fouls
14	19
Tackles
68% (15/22)	86% (19/22)
Duels won
49	46
Clearances
5	23
Interceptions
9	6
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper saves
3	4
xGOT faced
2.84	0.27
Goals prevented
-0.16	0.27

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Stassin L. ⚽, Cardona I. (A),
36', Boakye A. 🟨,
44', Meddah D. 🟨,
44', Touzghar R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
49', Briancon A. 🟨,
64', 0 - 2, Stassin L. ⚽,
64', Sissoko O. ↓, Sadik O. ↑,
66', Cardona I. ↓, Moueffek A. ↑,
71', Anziani J. ↓, Bobichon A. ↑,
72', Pouilly T. ↓, Glossoa N. ↑,
78', Touzghar R. ↓, Fall C. ↑,
78', Versini G. ↓, Dong K. ↑,
79', Davitashvili Z. ↓, Duffus J. ↑,
90+5', 0 - 3, Duffus J. ⚽, Boakye A. (A),

Chances of winning

Pau
30.7%

Draw
26%

Saint-Étienne
43.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.2%

25.1%

41.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.3%

24.4%

42.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Saint-Étienne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pau than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Saint-Étienne than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Pau - Saint-Étienne Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.05 ↑ (2.81)	3.58 ↓ (3.72)	2.17 ↓ (2.24)	6.8% (7.1%)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

What is the prediction for Pau - Saint-Étienne?

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Pau (votes: 1 - 50%). Saint-Étienne (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Saint-Étienne will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1).
Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
Pau may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
There will not play in Pau: Gaspar J. (Inactive) Glossoa N. (Injury) Sadik O. (Inactive)
There will not play in Saint-Étienne: Bernauer M. (Inactive) El Jamali N. (Inactive) Ferreira J. (Inactive) Jaber M. (Injury) Lamba C. (Injury) N'Guessan D. (Inactive) Traore L. (Inactive)
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pau won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:12. (average 0.8:2.4).
Including home matches between the teams, Pau won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

How many head-to-head matches has Pau won against Saint-Étienne?

Pau has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Saint-Étienne won against Pau?

Saint-Étienne has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Pau - Saint-Étienne were as follows:

28.10.2025 Saint-Étienne - Pau 6:0

23.01.2024 Pau - Saint-Étienne 0:1

25.11.2023 Saint-Étienne - Pau 1:2

25.02.2023 Saint-Étienne - Pau 2:0

05.09.2022 Pau - Saint-Étienne 2:2

Latest results of Pau

21.02.2026 Troyes - Pau 4:3 ✺

13.02.2026 Pau - Boulogne 1:2 ✺

06.02.2026 Red Star - Pau 0:3 ✺

30.01.2026 Laval - Pau 0:1 ✺

23.01.2026 Pau - Grenoble 2:2 ✺

Latest results of Saint-Étienne

21.02.2026 Saint-Étienne - Laval 2:1 ✺

14.02.2026 Guingamp - Saint-Étienne 1:2 ✺

07.02.2026 Saint-Étienne - Montpellier 1:0 ✺

31.01.2026 Saint-Étienne - Boulogne 0:1 ✺

24.01.2026 Reims - Saint-Étienne 1:0 ✺

French Ligue 2 Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Troyes ✔	33	20	7	6	60:32	28	67
2	Le Mans	33	15	14	4	48:31	17	59
3	St Etienne	33	17	6	10	54:38	16	57
4	Red Star	33	16	9	8	44:36	8	57
5	Rodez	33	14	13	6	43:38	5	55
6	Reims	33	13	14	6	48:32	16	53
7	Annecy	33	15	7	11	48:37	11	52
8	Montpellier	33	14	8	11	40:30	10	50
9	Pau FC	33	12	9	12	45:57	-12	45
10	Dunkerque	33	11	10	12	51:42	9	43
11	Guingamp	33	10	10	13	42:48	-6	40
12	Grenoble	33	7	15	11	32:39	-7	36
13	Boulogne	33	9	9	15	33:47	-14	36
14	Clermont	33	8	10	15	37:44	-7	34
15	Nancy	33	8	10	15	32:50	-18	34
16	Laval	33	5	14	14	28:47	-19	29
17	Bastia	33	5	13	15	23:37	-14	28
18	Amiens ✔	33	6	6	21	37:60	-23	24

      Promotion ~ Ligue 1
      Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)
      Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)
      Ligue 2 (Relegation)
      Relegation ~ National

Clinched Spots for Teams

Troyes is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Ligue 1
Amiens is Relegated to National