Result
2:2
06/03/2026 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Ligue 2 - Round 26
- Referee: Valnet A. (Fra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.53 | 1.49 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 44% | 56% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (304/373) | 88% (407/465) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.53 | 1.49 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.89 | 0.67 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 10 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 9 | 15 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 19 | 20 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (304/373) | 88% (407/465) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 38% (23/61) | 60% (28/47) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 65% (42/65) | 73% (84/115) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 27% (3/11) | 9% (2/23) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.76 | 1.16 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 19 | 17 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 20 | 19 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 86% (12/14) | 77% (10/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 50 | 52 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 22 | 13 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 12 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.67 | 0.89 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.33 | -1.11 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 1)
- 4', 1 - 0, Sissoko O. ⚽, Dong K. (A),
- 13', 1 - 1, Eickmayer J. ⚽,
- 31', 2 - 1, Anziani J. ⚽, Dong K. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Dong K. ↓, Touzghar R. ↑,
- 46', Tomi F. ↓, Beliandjou R. ↑,
- 51', Boutrah A. 🟨,
- 57', Briancon A. ↓, Fall C. ↑,
- 60', Janneh J. ↓, Zaouai A. ↑,
- 66', Guevara J. 🟨,
- 69', Akueson G. 🟨,
- 74', Ducrocq T. ↓, Vincent C. ↑,
- 74', Boutrah A. ↓, Karamoko I. ↑,
- 79', Pouilly T. ↓, Glossoa N. ↑,
- 83', Sissoko O. ↓, Sadik O. ↑,
- 84', Versini G. ↓, Bobichon A. ↑,
- 84', Bohnert F. ↓, Lebas da Silva V. ↑,
- 85', Raveyre N. 🟨,
- 90+3', 2 - 2, Vincent C. ⚽,
Chances of winning
Pau
38.7% | Draw
29.5% | Bastia
31.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Pau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)Bastia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pau than the current prediction. (+5.3%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pau, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bastia than the current prediction. (-3.4%)
Pau - Bastia Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.41 ↑
(2.16) |
3.19 ↓
(3.3) |
2.98 ↓
(3.19) |
6.4%
(8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Pau - Bastia?
Users Predictions:
18 users predict this event. Pau will win (votes: 8 - 44.4%). Bastia will win (votes: 3 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 38.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Pau: 21.4% – 67.4%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Pau (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 4 - 80%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH -0.25 - Bastia (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +0.5 - Bastia (3.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Pau (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Bastia (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 4 - 57.1%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 11 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ National).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pau won 1.
- Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
- Pau is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Pau: Gaspar J.
(Inactive)
Kante
(Inactive)
Zuliani E.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Bastia: Bathily Y.
(Injury)
Djedje D.
(Injury)
Guidi D.
(Inactive)
Parravicini N.
(Hernia)
Sebas J.
(Red Card)
Zilliox N.
(Inactive)
- In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Pau won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:14. (average 1.4:1.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Pau won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:9. (average 1.5:2.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Pau won against Bastia?
Pau has won 1 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Bastia won against Pau?
Bastia has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Pau - Bastia were as follows:
15.08.2025
Bastia
-
Pau
1:1
24.01.2025
Bastia
-
Pau
1:1
22.10.2024
Pau
-
Bastia
1:1
10.05.2024
Pau
-
Bastia
1:2
26.09.2023
Bastia
-
Pau
1:4
French Ligue 2 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Troyes ✔ | 33 | 20 | 7 | 6 | 60:32 | 28 | 67 |
| 2 | Le Mans | 33 | 15 | 14 | 4 | 48:31 | 17 | 59 |
| 3 | St Etienne | 33 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 54:38 | 16 | 57 |
| 4 | Red Star | 33 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 44:36 | 8 | 57 |
| 5 | Rodez | 33 | 14 | 13 | 6 | 43:38 | 5 | 55 |
| 6 | Reims | 33 | 13 | 14 | 6 | 48:32 | 16 | 53 |
| 7 | Annecy | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 48:37 | 11 | 52 |
| 8 | Montpellier | 33 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 40:30 | 10 | 50 |
| 9 | Pau FC | 33 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 45:57 | -12 | 45 |
| 10 | Dunkerque | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 51:42 | 9 | 43 |
| 11 | Guingamp | 33 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 42:48 | -6 | 40 |
| 12 | Grenoble | 33 | 7 | 15 | 11 | 32:39 | -7 | 36 |
| 13 | Boulogne | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 33:47 | -14 | 36 |
| 14 | Clermont | 33 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 37:44 | -7 | 34 |
| 15 | Nancy | 33 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 32:50 | -18 | 34 |
| 16 | Laval | 33 | 5 | 14 | 14 | 28:47 | -19 | 29 |
| 17 | Bastia | 33 | 5 | 13 | 15 | 23:37 | -14 | 28 |
| 18 | Amiens ✔ | 33 | 6 | 6 | 21 | 37:60 | -23 | 24 |
Promotion ~ Ligue 1
Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)
Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Ligue 2 (Relegation)
Relegation ~ National
Clinched Spots for Teams
Troyes is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Ligue 1
Amiens is Relegated to National
