Rodez vs Bastia – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

20/03/2026 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Stade Paul-Lignon (Rodez).

Ligue 2 - Round 28
Referee: Abed K. (Fra)
Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free

Match Stats


Expected goals (xG)
1.34	0.61
Ball possession
49%	51%
Total shots
10	13
Shots on target
3	6
Big chances
3	1
Corner kicks
9	2
Passes
74% (221/300)	74% (248/333)
Yellow cards
1	2
Expected goals (xG)
1.34	0.61
xG on target (xGOT)
1.04	0.89
Total shots
10	13
Shots on target
3	6
Shots off target
3	2
Blocked shots
4	5
Shots inside the box
8	4
Shots outside the box
2	9
Hit the woodwork
0	0
Big chances
3	1
Corner kicks
9	2
Touches in opposition box
22	21
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
5	1
Free kicks
10	9
Passes
74% (221/300)	74% (248/333)
Long passes
40% (26/65)	35% (24/69)
Passes in final third
52% (39/75)	65% (97/149)
Crosses
22% (6/27)	11% (2/18)
Expected assists (xA)
0.75	1.06
Throw ins
30	18
Fouls
9	10
Tackles
59% (10/17)	60% (9/15)
Duels won
42	50
Clearances
30	39
Interceptions
10	7
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper saves
5	3
xGOT faced
0.89	1.04
Goals prevented
-0.11	0.04

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 1)
24', 1 - 0, Arconte T. (Penalty Awarded),
40', 1 - 1, Eickmayer J. ⚽, Zaouai A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
50', Roncaglia A. 🟨,
59', Zaouai A. ↓, Merghem M. ↑,
59', Sebas J. ↓, Boutrah A. ↑,
69', Benchamma S. ↓, Saka M. ↑,
69', Joly O. ↓, Younoussa W. ↑,
72', Jean-Lambert E. 🟨,
77', Roncaglia A. ↓, Ducrocq T. ↑,
77', Nagera K. ↓, Balde I. ↑,
77', Tomi F. ↓, Beliandjou R. ↑,
85', Eickmayer J. ↓, Vincent C. ↑,
88', Mendes J. ↓, Trouillet A. ↑,
88', Arconte T. ↓, Baaloudj M. ↑,
90+5', Boutrah A. 🟨,

Chances of winning

Rodez
38%

Draw
29.5%

Bastia
32.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.2%

27%

33.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.6%

26.7%

33.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rodez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Bastia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rodez than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bastia than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Rodez - Bastia Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↑ (2.38)	3.19 ↓ (3.46)	2.85 ↑ (2.76)	6.9% (7.2%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for Rodez - Bastia?

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

DNB - Rodez (1.73) (votes: 4 - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DC - Rodez (1.42) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -0.75 - Rodez (2.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Rodez (2.12) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Rodez (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Rodez (2.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Rodez will win (51 of 57 users predict this - 89.47%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.5% – 97.44%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Rodez will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 21 high ROI users predict this event. Rodez (votes: 19 - 90.5%). Bastia (votes: 2 - 9.5%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 6 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ National).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rodez won 2.
Rodez is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).
Bastia is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
There will not play in Rodez: Achi M. (Inactive) Balde I. (Inactive) Crombez E. (Inactive) Magnin M. (Yellow Cards) Ponti R. (Injury) Tebily H. (Injury) Vangi D. (Inactive)
There will not play in Bastia: Bathily Y. (Injury) Djedje D. (Injury) Guidi D. (Inactive) Parravicini N. (Hernia) Zilliox N. (Inactive)
There are questionable in Bastia: Ariss Z. (Injury)
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Rodez won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:11. (average 1.1:1.1).
Including home matches between the teams, Rodez won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 1:7. (average 0.2:1.4).

How many head-to-head matches has Rodez won against Bastia?

Rodez has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Bastia won against Rodez?

Bastia has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Rodez - Bastia were as follows:

23.09.2025 Bastia - Rodez 2:3

07.02.2025 Rodez - Bastia 0:2

29.10.2024 Bastia - Rodez 2:2

17.02.2024 Bastia - Rodez 0:2

21.10.2023 Rodez - Bastia 1:1

Latest results of Rodez

14.03.2026 Reims - Rodez 1:2 ✺

06.03.2026 Rodez - Grenoble 1:0 ✺

28.02.2026 Guingamp - Rodez 0:0 ✺

20.02.2026 Rodez - Montpellier 1:0 ✺

13.02.2026 Clermont - Rodez 1:2 ✺

Latest results of Bastia

13.03.2026 Bastia - Boulogne 0:1 ✺

06.03.2026 Pau - Bastia 2:2 ✺

27.02.2026 Bastia - Annecy 0:2 ✺

20.02.2026 Dunkerque - Bastia 1:1 ✺

16.02.2026 Bastia - Troyes 0:0 ✺

French Ligue 2 Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Troyes	28	17	6	5	49:28	21	57
2	St Etienne	28	16	5	7	50:29	21	53
3	Le Mans	28	13	11	4	41:29	12	50
4	Red Star	28	13	8	7	32:27	5	47
5	Reims	28	12	10	6	41:26	15	46
6	Rodez	28	11	11	6	35:33	2	44
7	Montpellier	28	12	6	10	33:25	8	42
8	Dunkerque	28	10	9	9	43:34	9	39
9	Annecy	28	11	6	11	35:34	1	39
10	Guingamp	28	10	9	9	38:40	-2	39
11	Pau FC	28	10	9	9	40:44	-4	39
12	Boulogne	28	9	7	12	30:38	-8	34
13	Grenoble	28	6	12	10	26:33	-7	30
14	Clermont	28	7	7	14	30:37	-7	28
15	Nancy	28	7	7	14	24:40	-16	28
16	Amiens	28	6	5	17	33:50	-17	23
17	Laval	28	4	11	13	24:41	-17	23
18	Bastia	28	3	11	14	15:31	-16	20

      Promotion ~ Ligue 1
      Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)
      Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)
      Ligue 2 (Relegation)
      Relegation ~ National