Result
1:1
20/03/2026 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Ligue 2 - Round 28
- Referee: Abed K. (Fra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.34 | 0.61 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 49% | 51% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (221/300) | 74% (248/333) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.34 | 0.61 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.04 | 0.89 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 2 | 9 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 22 | 21 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (221/300) | 74% (248/333) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 40% (26/65) | 35% (24/69) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 52% (39/75) | 65% (97/149) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 22% (6/27) | 11% (2/18) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.75 | 1.06 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 30 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 9 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 59% (10/17) | 60% (9/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 42 | 50 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 30 | 39 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.89 | 1.04 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.11 | 0.04 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 24', 1 - 0, Arconte T. (Penalty Awarded),
- 40', 1 - 1, Eickmayer J. ⚽, Zaouai A. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 50', Roncaglia A. 🟨,
- 59', Zaouai A. ↓, Merghem M. ↑,
- 59', Sebas J. ↓, Boutrah A. ↑,
- 69', Benchamma S. ↓, Saka M. ↑,
- 69', Joly O. ↓, Younoussa W. ↑,
- 72', Jean-Lambert E. 🟨,
- 77', Roncaglia A. ↓, Ducrocq T. ↑,
- 77', Nagera K. ↓, Balde I. ↑,
- 77', Tomi F. ↓, Beliandjou R. ↑,
- 85', Eickmayer J. ↓, Vincent C. ↑,
- 88', Mendes J. ↓, Trouillet A. ↑,
- 88', Arconte T. ↓, Baaloudj M. ↑,
- 90+5', Boutrah A. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Rodez
38% | Draw
29.5% | Bastia
32.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Rodez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)Bastia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rodez than the current prediction. (+1.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bastia than the current prediction. (+0.9%)
Rodez - Bastia Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.47 ↑
(2.38) |
3.19 ↓
(3.46) |
2.85 ↑
(2.76) |
6.9%
(7.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Rodez - Bastia?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- DNB - Rodez (1.73) (votes: 4 - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- DC - Rodez (1.42) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH -0.75 - Rodez (2.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.25 - Rodez (2.12) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH 0 - Rodez (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.5 - Rodez (2.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Rodez will win
(51 of 57 users predict this - 89.47%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.5% – 97.44%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Rodez will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%) 🥈 Silver Tip.Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 21 Selected Experts predict this event. Rodez (votes: 19 - 90.5%). Bastia (votes: 2 - 9.5%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 6 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ National).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rodez won 2.
- Rodez is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Bastia is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
- There will not play in Rodez: Achi M.
(Inactive)
Balde I.
(Inactive)
Crombez E.
(Inactive)
Magnin M.
(Yellow Cards)
Ponti R.
(Injury)
Tebily H.
(Injury)
Vangi D.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Bastia: Bathily Y.
(Injury)
Djedje D.
(Injury)
Guidi D.
(Inactive)
Parravicini N.
(Hernia)
Zilliox N.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Bastia: Ariss Z.
(Injury)
- In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Rodez won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:11. (average 1.1:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Rodez won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 1:7. (average 0.2:1.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Rodez won against Bastia?
Rodez has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Bastia won against Rodez?
Bastia has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Rodez - Bastia were as follows:
23.09.2025
Bastia
-
Rodez
2:3
07.02.2025
Rodez
-
Bastia
0:2
29.10.2024
Bastia
-
Rodez
2:2
17.02.2024
Bastia
-
Rodez
0:2
21.10.2023
Rodez
-
Bastia
1:1
French Ligue 2 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Troyes ✔ | 33 | 20 | 7 | 6 | 60:32 | 28 | 67 |
| 2 | Le Mans | 33 | 15 | 14 | 4 | 48:31 | 17 | 59 |
| 3 | St Etienne | 33 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 54:38 | 16 | 57 |
| 4 | Red Star | 33 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 44:36 | 8 | 57 |
| 5 | Rodez | 33 | 14 | 13 | 6 | 43:38 | 5 | 55 |
| 6 | Reims | 33 | 13 | 14 | 6 | 48:32 | 16 | 53 |
| 7 | Annecy | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 48:37 | 11 | 52 |
| 8 | Montpellier | 33 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 40:30 | 10 | 50 |
| 9 | Pau FC | 33 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 45:57 | -12 | 45 |
| 10 | Dunkerque | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 51:42 | 9 | 43 |
| 11 | Guingamp | 33 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 42:48 | -6 | 40 |
| 12 | Grenoble | 33 | 7 | 15 | 11 | 32:39 | -7 | 36 |
| 13 | Boulogne | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 33:47 | -14 | 36 |
| 14 | Clermont | 33 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 37:44 | -7 | 34 |
| 15 | Nancy | 33 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 32:50 | -18 | 34 |
| 16 | Laval | 33 | 5 | 14 | 14 | 28:47 | -19 | 29 |
| 17 | Bastia | 33 | 5 | 13 | 15 | 23:37 | -14 | 28 |
| 18 | Amiens ✔ | 33 | 6 | 6 | 21 | 37:60 | -23 | 24 |
Promotion ~ Ligue 1
Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)
Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Ligue 2 (Relegation)
Relegation ~ National
Clinched Spots for Teams
Troyes is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Ligue 1
Amiens is Relegated to National
