Result
0:0
16/02/2026 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Ligue 2 - Round 23
- Referee: Buquet R. (Fra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Andorra | beIN Sports 1 |
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, beIN Sports MENA French 1, TOD |
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.39 | 0.19 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 49% | 51% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 3 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (241/328) | 73% (253/346) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.39 | 0.19 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.38 | 0.00 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 3 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 0 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 10 | 1 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 2 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 26 | 4 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 21 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (241/328) | 73% (253/346) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 37% (25/68) | 36% (25/70) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 58% (68/117) | 57% (41/72) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 35% (6/17) | 29% (2/7) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.88 | 0.33 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 24 | 27 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 21 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 54% (13/24) | 69% (11/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 72 | 51 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 28 | 35 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 13 | 13 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 0 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.00 | 0.38 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 7', Monfray A. 🟨,
- 44', Guevara J. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 48', Gambor H. 🟨,
- 64', Tomi F. ↓, Sebas J. ↑,
- 64', Vincent C. ↓, Merghem M. ↑,
- 70', Bohnert F. ↓, Meynadier T. ↑,
- 74', Mille A. 🟨,
- 75', Detourbet M. ↓, Diawara K. ↑,
- 87', Boutrah A. ↓, Zaouai A. ↑,
- 87', Ducrocq T. ↓, Janneh J. ↑,
- 88', Merghem M. 🟨,
Highlights
https://tinyurl.com/bd45c6jc
Chances of winning
Bastia
33.8% | Draw
31.1% | Troyes
35% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Bastia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)Troyes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bastia than the current prediction. (-3.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Troyes than the current prediction. (+4.2%)
Bastia - Troyes Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.78 ↓
(2.97) |
3 ↓
(3.08) |
2.68 ↑
(2.44) |
6.6%
(7.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Bastia - Troyes?
Users Predictions:
29 users predict this event. Bastia will win (votes: 4 - 13.8%). Troyes will win (votes: 23 - 79.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 6.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Troyes: 64.6% – 94%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .
- AH 0 - Troyes (1.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DC - Bastia (1.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Troyes will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%) 🥈 Silver Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 10 high ROI users predict this event. Bastia (votes: 2 - 20%). Troyes (votes: 8 - 80%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ National and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bastia won 0.
- Recent performances by Bastia have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Troyes has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Bastia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
- There will not play in Bastia: Bathily Y.
(Injury)
Djedje D.
(Injury)
Guidi D.
(Inactive)
Parravicini N.
(Hernia)
Zilliox N.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Troyes: Boura I.
(Health problems)
Gozzi P.
(Broken Leg)
Ifnaoui M.
(Injury)
Lemaitre N.
(Knee Injury)
Maronnier L.
(Inactive)
Phliponeau A.
(Injury)
Traore I.
(Inactive)
- In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Bastia won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:12. (average 0.8:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Bastia won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 8:6. (average 1.3:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Bastia won against Troyes?
Bastia has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Troyes won against Bastia?
Troyes has won 4 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Bastia - Troyes were as follows:
10.01.2026
Bastia
-
Troyes
0:2
17.10.2025
Troyes
-
Bastia
1:0
28.02.2025
Troyes
-
Bastia
2:0
13.09.2024
Bastia
-
Troyes
0:0
09.03.2024
Troyes
-
Bastia
2:0
French Ligue 2 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Troyes | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 38:25 | 13 | 45 |
| 2 | St Etienne | 24 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 41:29 | 12 | 43 |
| 3 | Reims | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 37:23 | 14 | 41 |
| 4 | Le Mans | 24 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 30:24 | 6 | 40 |
| 5 | Red Star | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 30:25 | 5 | 40 |
| 6 | Dunkerque | 24 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 40:25 | 15 | 38 |
| 7 | Annecy | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 32:25 | 7 | 36 |
| 8 | Rodez | 24 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 31:31 | 0 | 36 |
| 9 | Montpellier | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 28:25 | 3 | 34 |
| 10 | Guingamp | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 35:36 | -1 | 34 |
| 11 | Pau FC | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 37:39 | -2 | 34 |
| 12 | Grenoble | 24 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 24:29 | -5 | 28 |
| 13 | Nancy | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 21:32 | -11 | 26 |
| 14 | Boulogne | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 25:36 | -11 | 26 |
| 15 | Clermont | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 27:32 | -5 | 25 |
| 16 | Amiens | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 28:39 | -11 | 23 |
| 17 | Bastia | 24 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 12:25 | -13 | 18 |
| 18 | Laval | 24 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 18:34 | -16 | 18 |
Promotion ~ Ligue 1
Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)
Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Ligue 2 (Relegation)
Relegation ~ National
