Result
1:0
17/10/2025 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Ligue 2 - Round 10
- Referee: Kubler G. (Fra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.35 | 1.01 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 34% | 66% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 69% (170/246) | 85% (397/468) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.35 | 1.01 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.36 | 0.65 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 11 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 10 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 12 | 22 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 69% (170/246) | 85% (397/468) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 44% (26/59) | 49% (19/39) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 49% (38/77) | 69% (85/123) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 45% (5/11) | 28% (7/25) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.67 | 1.08 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 19 | 19 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 58% (7/12) | 67% (8/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 43 | 55 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 29 | 24 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.65 | 0.36 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.65 | -0.64 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 23', Adeline M. 🟥,
- 28', Mille A. 🟨,
- 37', Lemaitre N. ↓, Konate H. ↑,
- 40', 1 - 0, Bentayeb T. ⚽, Ifnaoui M. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Roncaglia A. ↓, Tomi F. ↑,
- 46', Parravicini N. ↓, Aiki A. ↑,
- 49', Ariss Z. 🟨,
- 49', Diop M. 🟨,
- 53', Guevara J. 🟨,
- 60', Titi Y. 🟨,
- 62', Boutrah A. ↓, Petrignani M. ↑,
- 77', Zaouai A. ↓, Ble M. ↑,
- 77', Vincent C. ↓, Janneh J. ↑,
- 79', Guidi D. 🟨,
- 79', Bentayeb T. ↓, El Idrissy M. ↑,
- 82', Monfray A. 🟨,
- 90+2', Mille A. ↓, Phliponeau A. ↑,
Chances of winning
Troyes
51.4% | Draw
27.3% | Bastia
21.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Troyes - Bastia Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.84 ↓
(1.91) |
3.43 ↑
(3.33) |
4.43 ↑
(4) |
6.2%
(7.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Troyes - Bastia?
Users Predictions:
Troyes will win
(28 of 31 users predict this - 90.32%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.91% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Troyes will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ National).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Troyes won 2.
- Troyes is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Bastia is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- In this match, Troyes is a strong favorite.
- There will not play in Troyes: Maronnier L.
(Muscle Injury)
Ripart R.
(Knee Injury)
Traore I.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Bastia: Akueson G.
(Knee Injury)
Bathily Y.
(Injury)
Etoga L.
(Knock)
Olmeta L.
(International duty)
Parravicini N.
(Injury)
Sebas J.
(Red Card)
- There are questionable in Troyes: Phliponeau A.
(Muscle Injury)
- We predict that Troyes will win today's game, with odds of 1.83.
- In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Troyes won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:9. (average 1:1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Troyes won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 1.3:0.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Troyes won against Bastia?
Troyes has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Bastia won against Troyes?
Bastia has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Troyes - Bastia were as follows:
28.02.2025
Troyes
-
Bastia
2:0
13.09.2024
Bastia
-
Troyes
0:0
09.03.2024
Troyes
-
Bastia
2:0
26.08.2023
Bastia
-
Troyes
3:2
French Ligue 2 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Troyes | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 27:14 | 13 | 31 |
| 2 | St Etienne | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 33:22 | 11 | 29 |
| 3 | Red Star | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 21:15 | 6 | 28 |
| 4 | Reims | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 28:20 | 8 | 25 |
| 5 | Montpellier | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 17:14 | 3 | 24 |
| 6 | Le Mans | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 19:16 | 3 | 24 |
| 7 | Guingamp | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 24:25 | -1 | 23 |
| 8 | Pau FC | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 21:23 | -2 | 23 |
| 9 | Dunkerque | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 26:18 | 8 | 21 |
| 10 | Annecy | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 17:16 | 1 | 19 |
| 11 | Clermont | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 15:19 | -4 | 18 |
| 12 | Grenoble | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 17:20 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 | Rodez | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 15:21 | -6 | 17 |
| 14 | Laval | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 12:16 | -4 | 15 |
| 15 | Amiens | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 19:24 | -5 | 15 |
| 16 | Nancy | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 14:21 | -7 | 15 |
| 17 | Boulogne | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 16:23 | -7 | 15 |
| 18 | Bastia | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 6:20 | -14 | 7 |
Promotion ~ Ligue 1
Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)
Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Ligue 2 (Relegation)
Relegation ~ National
