Result
0:0
11/04/2026 at 12:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Challenge League - Round 30
- Referee: Qovanaj H. (Ita)
- Where to Watch on TV:
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 Switzerland | Blue Sport 5, Blue Sport 5 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.49 | 1.47 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 39% | 61% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (247/333) | 81% (414/510) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.49 | 1.47 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.96 | 1.43 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 9 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 8 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 8 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 10 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 32 | 33 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 16 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (247/333) | 81% (414/510) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 40% (24/60) | 57% (28/49) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 65% (70/107) | 69% (111/161) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 25% (2/8) | 30% (9/30) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.11 | 1.66 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 13 | 27 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 16 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 89% (16/18) | 78% (14/18) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 46 | 58 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 36 | 20 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 24 | 11 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.43 | 0.96 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.43 | 0.96 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 28', Rizvanovic M. 🟨,
- 36', Muller S. 🟨,
- 41', Kury J. 🟨,
- 41', Rossier E. ↓, Mayorga J. ↑,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 52', Mosquera D. 🟨,
- 57', Thaler M. 🟨,
- 64', Filet E. ↓, Afriyie D. ↑,
- 64', Lymann F. ↓, Ayala D. ↑,
- 67', Jashari E. 🟨,
- 72', Moulin P. ↓, Rey A. ↑,
- 72', Rizvanovic M. ↓, Lopez B. ↑,
- 76', Fazliu V. ↓, Chacon T. ↑,
- 76', Vladi S. ↓, Koide H. ↑,
- 85', Jaiteh M. 🟨,
- 89', Frokaj L. 🟨,
- 90', Frokaj L. ↓, Jackle O. ↑,
Chances of winning
Bellinzona
12.5% | Draw
17.2% | Aarau
70.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Bellinzona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bellinzona's form might have worsened.Aarau has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.6%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Aarau's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bellinzona than the current prediction. (+5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aarau than the current prediction. (-8.7%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Aarau, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Bellinzona - Aarau Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
7.45 ↑
(5.15) |
5.39 ↑
(4.28) |
1.32 ↓
(1.52) |
7.8%
(8.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
What is the prediction for Bellinzona - Aarau?
Users Predictions:
7 users predict this event. Bellinzona will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Aarau will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Aarau (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bellinzona won 1.
- Bellinzona is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Aarau is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- Aarau may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Aarau is the clear favorite.
- There will not play in Bellinzona: Bomo J.
(Yellow Cards)
Dermaku D.
(Knee Injury)
Mihajlovic D.
(Inactive)
Osigwe S.
(Injury)
Sadiku A.
(Injury)
Shabani M.
(Injury)
Shala L.
(Inactive)
Sorensen A.
(Injury)
- There will not play in Aarau: Acquah D.
(Yellow Cards)
- There are questionable in Aarau: Guzzo R.
(Inactive)
- In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Bellinzona won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 25:28. (average 1.3:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Bellinzona won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 15:18. (average 1.9:2.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Bellinzona won against Aarau?
Bellinzona has won 6 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Aarau won against Bellinzona?
Aarau has won 6 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Bellinzona - Aarau were as follows:
24.01.2026
Aarau
-
Bellinzona
1:0
08.11.2025
Bellinzona
-
Aarau
5:1
13.08.2025
Aarau
-
Bellinzona
1:0
31.03.2025
Bellinzona
-
Aarau
1:1
01.02.2025
Aarau
-
Bellinzona
2:1
Latest results of Bellinzona
Swiss Challenge League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Vaduz | 30 | 21 | 5 | 4 | 62:33 | 29 | 68 |
| 2 | Aarau | 30 | 21 | 3 | 6 | 60:40 | 20 | 66 |
| 3 | Yverdon | 30 | 17 | 5 | 8 | 61:38 | 23 | 56 |
| 4 | Lausanne Ouchy | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 47:41 | 6 | 40 |
| 5 | Xamax | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 43:46 | -3 | 39 |
| 6 | Rapperswil-Jona | 30 | 11 | 2 | 17 | 40:50 | -10 | 35 |
| 7 | Etoile-Carouge | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 35:42 | -7 | 33 |
| 8 | Wil | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 31:45 | -14 | 33 |
| 9 | Stade Nyonnais | 30 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 29:42 | -13 | 28 |
| 10 | Bellinzona | 30 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 29:60 | -31 | 19 |
Promotion ~ Super League
Promotion ~ Super League (Promotion: )
Relegation ~ Promotion League
