Derby County vs Birmingham City – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

21/03/2026 at 08:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Pride Park (Derby).

Championship - Round 39
Referee: Ward G. (Eng)
Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Iceland	Viaplay
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	Sky Sports+
Usa	Paramount+

Match Stats


Expected goals (xG)
1.16	0.15
Ball possession
51%	49%
Total shots
17	3
Shots on target
6	0
Big chances
1	0
Corner kicks
6	2
Passes
71% (239/337)	73% (235/323)
Yellow cards
1	4
Expected goals (xG)
1.16	0.15
xG on target (xGOT)
1.03	0.00
Total shots
17	3
Shots on target
6	0
Shots off target
5	2
Blocked shots
6	1
Shots inside the box
10	2
Shots outside the box
7	1
Hit the woodwork
1	0
Headed goals
1	0
Big chances
1	0
Corner kicks
6	2
Touches in opposition box
24	9
Accurate through passes
1	1
Offsides
3	2
Free kicks
16	12
Passes
71% (239/337)	73% (235/323)
Long passes
37% (26/71)	31% (22/72)
Passes in final third
65% (86/132)	61% (54/89)
Crosses
24% (5/21)	13% (2/16)
Expected assists (xA)
1.39	0.21
Throw ins
25	17
Fouls
12	16
Tackles
77% (10/13)	50% (11/22)
Duels won
53	59
Clearances
26	39
Interceptions
3	6
Errors leading to shot
0	2
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper saves
0	5
xGOT faced
0.00	1.03
Goals prevented
0.00	0.03

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 0)
32', Osman I. 🟨,
43', 1 - 0, Brewster R. ⚽, Murkin D. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
48', Panzo J. 🟨,
58', Osman I. ↓, Vicente C. ↑,
58', Laird E. ↓, Doyle T. ↑,
59', Ducksch M. ↓, Solis Romero J. E. ↑,
65', Brewster R. ↓, Banel J. ↑,
70', Agyemang P. 🟨,
71', Stansfield J. ↓, Priske A. ↑,
83', Agyemang P. ↓, Morris C. ↑,
84', Szmodics S. ↓, Fraulo O. ↑,
84', Clark B. ↓, Ozoh D. ↑,
84', Panzo J. ↓, Furuhashi K. ↑,
87', Robinson J. 🟨,
90+2', Solis Romero J. E. 🟨,

Chances of winning

Derby County
34.4%

Draw
28.4%

Birmingham City
37.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.3%

27.3%

38.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.8%

27.7%

37.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Birmingham City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Birmingham City than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Derby County - Birmingham City Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.77 ↑ (2.75)	3.34 ↓ (3.46)	2.55 ↑ (2.46)	5.3% (5.9%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

What is the prediction for Derby County - Birmingham City?

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Derby will win (votes: 10 - 52.6%). Birmingham will win (votes: 4 - 21.1%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 26.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Derby: 30.1% – 75.1%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Derby (votes: 3 - 60%). Birmingham (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 8 and 10)
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Derby won 1.
Derby has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).
Birmingham is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
There will not play in Derby: Batth D. (Muscle Injury) Elder C. (Inactive) Johnston M. (Hamstring Injury) Langas S. (Hamstring Injury) Salvesen L. (Muscle Injury) Thompson L. (Muscle Injury) Vickers J. (Injury) Widell Zetterstrom J. (Muscle Injury)
There will not play in Birmingham: Buchanan L. (Knee Injury) Cochrane A. (Ankle Injury) Wagner K. (Inactive)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Derby won 8 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 38:28. (average 1.9:1.4).
Including home matches between the teams, Derby won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:14. (average 1.6:1.6).

How many head-to-head matches has Derby County won against Birmingham City?

Derby County has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Birmingham City won against Derby County?

Birmingham City has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Derby County - Birmingham City were as follows:

26.12.2025 Birmingham City - Derby County 1:1

Latest results of Derby County

16.03.2026 Portsmouth - Derby County 0:1 ✺

10.03.2026 Millwall - Derby County 1:0 ✺

07.03.2026 Derby County - Sheffield Wednesday 2:1 ✺

28.02.2026 Derby County - Blackburn Rovers 3:1 ✺

24.02.2026 Hull City - Derby County 4:2 ✺

Latest results of Birmingham City

14.03.2026 Birmingham City - Sheffield United 1:1 ✺

11.03.2026 Birmingham City - Queens Park Rangers 1:0 ✺

07.03.2026 Charlton Athletic - Birmingham City 1:0 ✺

02.03.2026 Birmingham City - Middlesbrough 1:3 ✺

25.02.2026 Millwall - Birmingham City 3:0 ✺

English League Championship Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Coventry	39	24	8	7	81:40	41	80
2	Middlesbrough	39	20	11	8	59:37	22	71
3	Ipswich	38	19	12	7	67:39	28	69
4	Millwall	39	20	9	10	53:44	9	69
5	Hull	39	20	6	13	62:57	5	66
6	Southampton	39	17	12	10	63:48	15	63
7	Wrexham	39	17	12	10	60:51	9	63
8	Derby	39	17	9	13	56:48	8	60
9	Watford	39	14	14	11	50:46	4	56
10	Norwich	39	16	6	17	52:46	6	54
11	Birmingham	39	14	11	14	48:49	-1	53
12	QPR	39	15	8	16	55:61	-6	53
13	Preston	39	13	13	13	45:49	-4	52
14	Swansea	39	15	7	17	44:49	-5	52
15	Stoke	39	14	9	16	46:43	3	51
16	Bristol City	39	14	9	16	49:50	-1	51
17	Sheffield Utd	39	15	5	19	54:54	0	50
18	Charlton	39	12	12	15	36:46	-10	48
19	Blackburn	39	11	10	18	36:49	-13	43
20	West Brom	39	11	10	18	40:54	-14	43
21	Portsmouth	38	10	10	18	37:54	-17	40
22	Leicester	39	11	12	16	51:60	-9	39
23	Oxford Utd	39	9	12	18	36:51	-15	39
24	Sheffield Wed ✔	39	1	9	29	24:79	-55	-6

      Promotion ~ Premier League
      Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
      Relegation ~ League One

Clinched Spots for Teams

Sheffield Wed is Relegated to League One