Result
1:0
21/03/2026 at 08:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Championship - Round 39
- Referee: Ward G. (Eng)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Denmark | Viaplay |
 Finland | Viaplay |
 Iceland | Viaplay |
 Netherlands | Viaplay |
 Norway | Viaplay |
 Sweden | Viaplay |
 United-kingdom | Sky Sports+ |
 Usa | Paramount+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.16 | 0.15 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 51% | 49% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 3 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 71% (239/337) | 73% (235/323) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.16 | 0.15 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.03 | 0.00 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 3 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 0 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 2 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 24 | 9 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 16 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 71% (239/337) | 73% (235/323) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 37% (26/71) | 31% (22/72) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 65% (86/132) | 61% (54/89) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 24% (5/21) | 13% (2/16) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.39 | 0.21 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 25 | 17 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 16 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 77% (10/13) | 50% (11/22) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 53 | 59 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 26 | 39 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 0 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.00 | 1.03 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.00 | 0.03 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 32', Osman I. 🟨,
- 43', 1 - 0, Brewster R. ⚽, Murkin D. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 48', Panzo J. 🟨,
- 58', Osman I. ↓, Vicente C. ↑,
- 58', Laird E. ↓, Doyle T. ↑,
- 59', Ducksch M. ↓, Solis Romero J. E. ↑,
- 65', Brewster R. ↓, Banel J. ↑,
- 70', Agyemang P. 🟨,
- 71', Stansfield J. ↓, Priske A. ↑,
- 83', Agyemang P. ↓, Morris C. ↑,
- 84', Szmodics S. ↓, Fraulo O. ↑,
- 84', Clark B. ↓, Ozoh D. ↑,
- 84', Panzo J. ↓, Furuhashi K. ↑,
- 87', Robinson J. 🟨,
- 90+2', Solis Romero J. E. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Derby County
34.4% | Draw
28.4% | Birmingham City
37.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)Birmingham City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+0.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Birmingham City than the current prediction. (+0.5%)
Derby County - Birmingham City Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.77 ↑
(2.75) |
3.34 ↓
(3.46) |
2.55 ↑
(2.46) |
5.3%
(5.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Derby County - Birmingham City?
Users Predictions:
19 users predict this event. Derby will win (votes: 10 - 52.6%). Birmingham will win (votes: 4 - 21.1%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 26.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Derby: 30.1% – 75.1%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Derby (votes: 3 - 60%). Birmingham (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 8 and 10)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Derby won 1.
- Derby has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Birmingham is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- There will not play in Derby: Batth D.
(Muscle Injury)
Elder C.
(Inactive)
Johnston M.
(Hamstring Injury)
Langas S.
(Hamstring Injury)
Salvesen L.
(Muscle Injury)
Thompson L.
(Muscle Injury)
Vickers J.
(Injury)
Widell Zetterstrom J.
(Muscle Injury)
- There will not play in Birmingham: Buchanan L.
(Knee Injury)
Cochrane A.
(Ankle Injury)
Wagner K.
(Inactive)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Derby won 8 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 38:28. (average 1.9:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Derby won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:14. (average 1.6:1.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Derby County won against Birmingham City?
Derby County has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Birmingham City won against Derby County?
Birmingham City has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Derby County - Birmingham City were as follows:
26.12.2025
Birmingham City
-
Derby County
1:1
Latest results of Derby County
Latest results of Birmingham City
English League Championship Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Coventry | 42 | 25 | 10 | 7 | 84:42 | 42 | 85 |
| 2 | Ipswich | 40 | 21 | 12 | 7 | 71:40 | 31 | 75 |
| 3 | Millwall | 42 | 21 | 10 | 11 | 56:47 | 9 | 73 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 42 | 20 | 12 | 10 | 62:42 | 20 | 72 |
| 5 | Southampton | 41 | 19 | 12 | 10 | 70:50 | 20 | 69 |
| 6 | Hull | 42 | 20 | 8 | 14 | 64:60 | 4 | 68 |
| 7 | Wrexham | 42 | 17 | 13 | 12 | 63:60 | 3 | 64 |
| 8 | Derby | 42 | 18 | 9 | 15 | 61:53 | 8 | 63 |
| 9 | Norwich | 42 | 17 | 7 | 18 | 55:50 | 5 | 58 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 42 | 16 | 10 | 16 | 52:51 | 1 | 58 |
| 11 | QPR | 42 | 16 | 10 | 16 | 58:63 | -5 | 58 |
| 12 | Watford | 42 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 52:51 | 1 | 57 |
| 13 | Preston | 42 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 50:53 | -3 | 57 |
| 14 | Swansea | 42 | 16 | 9 | 17 | 50:54 | -4 | 57 |
| 15 | Birmingham | 42 | 15 | 11 | 16 | 51:52 | -1 | 56 |
| 16 | Stoke | 42 | 15 | 10 | 17 | 49:46 | 3 | 55 |
| 17 | Sheffield Utd | 42 | 16 | 6 | 20 | 59:59 | 0 | 54 |
| 18 | Charlton | 42 | 12 | 13 | 17 | 39:51 | -12 | 49 |
| 19 | Blackburn | 42 | 12 | 12 | 18 | 38:50 | -12 | 48 |
| 20 | West Brom | 42 | 11 | 13 | 18 | 42:56 | -14 | 46 |
| 21 | Portsmouth | 41 | 11 | 12 | 18 | 41:57 | -16 | 45 |
| 22 | Oxford Utd | 42 | 10 | 14 | 18 | 41:54 | -13 | 44 |
| 23 | Leicester | 42 | 11 | 14 | 17 | 54:64 | -10 | 41 |
| 24 | Sheffield Wed ✔ | 42 | 1 | 11 | 30 | 25:82 | -57 | -4 |
Promotion ~ Premier League
Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Relegation ~ League One
Clinched Spots for Teams
Sheffield Wed is Relegated to League One
