Result
3:2
17/01/2026 at 09:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Bundesliga - Round 18
- Referee: Osmers H. (Ger)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | Azam Sports 2, Startimes World Football |
 Albania | Tring Sport 2 |
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Australia | beIN Connect |
 Austria | Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1 |
 Belgium | Play Sports 1, Play Sports 2 |
 Brazil | Canal GOAT, SportyNet |
 Bulgaria | Play Diema Xtra |
 Canada | DAZN Canada, OneSoccer |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 China | Migu, QQ Sports |
 Colombia | Disney+ |
 Croatia | SportKlub 7 |
 Czech-republic | Nova Sport 5, Oneplay |
 Denmark | Viaplay |
 Europe | Go3 Sport 2 Baltic |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV, Viaplay |
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free |
 Germany | DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga UHD, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW |
 Greece | Nova Sports 3 |
 Hong-kong | beIN Sports 3, M Plus Live |
 Hungary | Arena 4 |
 Iceland | Viaplay |
 Israel | Sport 1 |
 Italy | Sky Sport Max |
 Japan | DAZN Japan |
 Laos | beIN Connect |
 Malaysia | beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka |
 Mexico | Sky Sport |
 Mongolia | Premier Sports 5 |
 Netherlands | Viaplay |
 New-zealand | beIN Connect |
 North-central-america | Sky Sports Norte |
 North-macedonia | MaxTV GO |
 Norway | TV2 Play, Viaplay, V Sport 2 |
 Pakistan | Tapmad |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Philippines | beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3 |
 Poland | Eleven Sports 3 |
 Portugal | DAZN 3, DAZN / App |
 Romania | Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Prima Sport PPV 1 |
 Russia | Okko Sport |
 Saudi-arabia | MBC Shahid |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 4 |
 Singapore | beIN Sports 3 |
 Slovakia | Sport TV2, Voyo |
 South-korea | Coupang Play |
 Spain | DAZN Espana |
 Sweden | Viaplay |
 Switzerland | Sky Sport Bundesliga 1 |
 Thailand | beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3 |
 Turkey | S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2 |
 Ukraine | Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+ |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | ESPN App, ESPN+ |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
 Vietnam | TV 360 |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.09 | 0.55 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 63% | 37% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (559/648) | 74% (268/364) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.09 | 0.55 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.95 | 1.10 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 23 | 14 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (559/648) | 74% (268/364) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 58% (34/59) | 39% (26/66) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 74% (126/171) | 55% (51/93) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 25% (4/16) | 33% (6/18) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.15 | 0.58 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 20 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 9 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 70% (7/10) | 57% (12/21) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 50 | 51 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 20 | 25 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 13 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.10 | 3.95 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.90 | 0.95 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 16', Schlotterbeck N. 🟨,
- 38', Smith E. 🟨,
- 43', Adeyemi K. 🟨,
- 45+1', 1 - 0, Brandt J. ⚽, Adeyemi K. (A),
- 2nd Half (2 - 2)
- 54', 2 - 0, Adeyemi K. ⚽, Silva F. (A),
- 62', 2 - 1, Sands J. ⚽, Smith E. (A),
- 64', Dzwigala A. ↓, Ando T. ↑,
- 64', Ritzka L. ↓, Oppie L. ↑,
- 64', Kaars M. ↓, Jones R.J. ↑,
- 69', Bellingham J. 🟨,
- 71', Adeyemi K. ↓, Beier M. ↑,
- 71', Silva F. ↓, Guirassy S. ↑,
- 71', Ryerson J. ↓, Couto Y. ↑,
- 72', 2 - 2, Jones R.J. ⚽, Smith E. (A),
- 83', Nmecha F. ↓, Ozcan S. ↑,
- 83', Brandt J. ↓, Chukwuemeka C. ↑,
- 90+5', 3 - 2, Can E. (Penalty Awarded),
Chances of winning
Borussia Dortmund
74% | Draw
17.7% | St. Pauli
8.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Borussia Dortmund has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)St. Pauli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (-1.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+2%)
Borussia Dortmund - St. Pauli Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.29 ↓
(1.36) |
5.42 ↑
(4.89) |
11.41 ↑
(9.01) |
4.8%
(5.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Borussia Dortmund - St. Pauli?
Users Predictions:
34 users predict this event. Borussia D will win (votes: 28 - 82.4%). St. Pauli will win (votes: 4 - 11.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 5.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Borussia D: 69.6% – 95.2%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 9 high ROI users predict this event. Borussia D (votes: 6 - 66.7%). St. Pauli (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 7.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH -1.5 - Borussia D (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DC - Borussia D (1.06) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 11 high ROI users predict this event. Borussia D (votes: 8 - 72.7%). St. Pauli (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
Preview Facts
- This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Borussia D won 3.
- Borussia D is showing really good form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- St. Pauli has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Borussia D may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Borussia D is the clear favorite.
- There will not play in St. Pauli: Hountondji A.
(Ankle Injury)
Irvine J.
(Foot Injury)
Nemeth D.
(Groin Injury)
Sinani D.
(Calf Injury)
- There are questionable in Borussia D: Anselmino A.
(Thigh Injury)
- There are questionable in St. Pauli: Metcalfe C.
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Borussia D won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 16:9. (average 2.3:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Borussia D won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 2.5:1.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Borussia Dortmund won against St. Pauli?
Borussia Dortmund has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has St. Pauli won against Borussia Dortmund?
St. Pauli has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Borussia Dortmund - St. Pauli were as follows:
23.08.2025
St. Pauli
-
Borussia Dortmund
3:3
01.03.2025
St. Pauli
-
Borussia Dortmund
0:2
18.10.2024
Borussia Dortmund
-
St. Pauli
2:1
Latest results of Borussia Dortmund
Latest results of St. Pauli
German Bundesliga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 27 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 97:25 | 72 | 70 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 27 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 58:28 | 30 | 61 |
| 3 | Stuttgart | 27 | 16 | 5 | 6 | 56:36 | 20 | 53 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 27 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 53:35 | 18 | 50 |
| 5 | Hoffenheim | 27 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 54:39 | 15 | 50 |
| 6 | Bayer Leverkusen | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 52:36 | 16 | 46 |
| 7 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 50:51 | -1 | 38 |
| 8 | Freiburg | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 39:44 | -5 | 37 |
| 9 | Union Berlin | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 31:46 | -15 | 31 |
| 10 | Augsburg | 27 | 9 | 4 | 14 | 33:50 | -17 | 31 |
| 11 | Mainz | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 33:42 | -9 | 30 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 31:40 | -9 | 30 |
| 13 | B. Monchengladbach | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 33:46 | -13 | 29 |
| 14 | Werder Bremen | 27 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 30:47 | -17 | 28 |
| 15 | FC Koln | 27 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 38:47 | -9 | 26 |
| 16 | St. Pauli | 27 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 24:44 | -20 | 24 |
| 17 | Wolfsburg | 27 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 35:57 | -22 | 21 |
| 18 | Heidenheim | 27 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 27:61 | -34 | 15 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Bundesliga (Relegation)
Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga
