Result
3:2
21/02/2026 at 15:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 23
- Referee: Pinheiro J. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | ZAP |
 Albania | Tring Sport 3 |
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Denmark | Bold+ |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 7, Free |
 Georgia | Silk Universal |
 Germany | Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2 |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 3 |
 Hungary | Sport 2 |
 Poland | Eleven Sports 4 |
 Portugal | DAZN 4, Sport TV1, Sport TV2 |
 Russia | TV Start, TV Start Triumph |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 8 |
 Slovakia | Arena sport 2 |
 Turkey | Tivibu Spor 4 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine |
 Uruguay | Antel TV |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.49 | 1.27 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 46% | 54% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (328/404) | 86% (410/479) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.49 | 1.27 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.95 | 2.42 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 0 | 4 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 14 | 16 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 17 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (328/404) | 86% (410/479) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 37% (16/43) | 36% (16/44) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 61% (47/77) | 66% (51/77) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 40% (2/5) | 22% (2/9) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.50 | 1.10 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 17 | 19 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 17 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 69% (11/16) | 69% (9/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 50 | 49 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 14 | 17 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 12 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.42 | 3.95 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.42 | 0.95 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 1)
- 14', Thiago Balieiro 🟨,
- 17', 1 - 0, Zalazar R. (Penalty Awarded),
- 19', 1 - 1, Barisic A. (Own goal),
- 32', 2 - 1, Horta R. ⚽, Zalazar R. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 54', 2 - 2, Gustavo ⚽, Saviolo N. (A),
- 57', 3 - 2, Zalazar R. ⚽, Horta R. (A),
- 61', Oliveira N. ↓, Ndoye A. ↑,
- 62', Gustavo ↓, Camara O. ↑,
- 69', Victor P. ↓, Navarro F. ↑,
- 69', Moutinho J. ↓, Gabriel Moscardo ↑,
- 77', Sousa D. ↓, Arcanjo T. ↑,
- 77', Samu ↓, Nogueira G. ↑,
- 79', Saviolo N. 🟨,
- 80', Horta R. 🟨,
- 84', Beni ↓, Mitrovic M. ↑,
- 88', Nobrega M. 🟨,
- 90+1', Gabriel Moscardo 🟨,
- 90+3', Rodrigues D. ↓, Lelo L. ↑,
Chances of winning
Braga
61.6% | Draw
23% | Vitoria Guimarães
15.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Braga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)Vitoria Guimarães has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Braga than the current prediction. (+0.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (+1.3%)
Braga - Vitoria Guimarães Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.53 ↓
(1.56) |
4.12 ↓
(4.24) |
6 ↑
(5.49) |
6.1%
(5.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Braga - Vitoria Guimarães?
Users Predictions:
13 users predict this event. Braga will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Guimarães will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Braga: 35% – 88%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DC - Braga (1.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -1 - Guimarães (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Braga (votes: 1 - 50%). Guimarães (votes: 1 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 5 and 8).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Braga won 1.
- Braga is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Guimarães has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- In this match, Braga is the team to beat.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Braga won 11 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 32:19. (average 1.6:1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Braga won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:9. (average 1.6:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Braga won against Vitoria Guimarães?
Braga has won 4 of their last 10 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Vitoria Guimarães won against Braga?
Vitoria Guimarães has won 3 of their last 10 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Braga - Vitoria Guimarães were as follows:
10.01.2026
Vitoria Guimarães
-
Braga
2:1
20.09.2025
Vitoria Guimarães
-
Braga
1:1
16.02.2025
Vitoria Guimarães
-
Braga
0:0
31.10.2024
Braga
-
Vitoria Guimarães
2:1
15.09.2024
Braga
-
Vitoria Guimarães
0:2
Latest results of Vitoria Guimarães
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 23 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 44:7 | 37 | 62 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 23 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 59:12 | 47 | 58 |
| 3 | Benfica | 23 | 16 | 7 | 0 | 49:13 | 36 | 55 |
| 4 | Braga | 23 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 48:22 | 26 | 42 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 23 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 34:21 | 13 | 40 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 29:21 | 8 | 35 |
| 7 | Estoril | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 46:39 | 7 | 33 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 29:33 | -4 | 33 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 27:34 | -7 | 31 |
| 10 | Alverca | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 23:38 | -15 | 26 |
| 11 | Arouca | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 31:49 | -18 | 26 |
| 12 | Estrela | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 26:41 | -15 | 23 |
| 13 | Casa Pia | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 25:43 | -18 | 22 |
| 14 | Nacional | 23 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 27:34 | -7 | 21 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 23 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 23:44 | -21 | 20 |
| 16 | Santa Clara | 23 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 18:29 | -11 | 18 |
| 17 | Tondela | 23 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 17:36 | -19 | 18 |
| 18 | AFS | 23 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 18:57 | -39 | 8 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
