Olympique Marseille vs Brest – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football French Ligue 1 Olympique Marseille - Brest
Result
4:1
27/04/2025 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Ligue 1 - Round 31
  • Referee: Frappart S. (Fra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaCANAL+ Sport 3
albaniaAlbaniaK-Sport 1
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
armeniaArmeniaFast Sports 1, Fast Sports
asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
austriaAustriaDAZN 2, DAZN, Sky Go Austria
belgiumBelgiumDAZN 1, VOOsport World 1
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Premium 3
bulgariaBulgariaDiema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
canadaCanadabeIN Connect, beIN Sports
chileChileDisney+
chinaChinaQQ Sports, ZhiBo8
colombiaColombiaDisney+
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
cyprusCyprusCablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 3
denmarkDenmarkViaplay
finlandFinlandViaplay
franceFranceDAZN 1, DAZN France
germanyGermanyDAZN 1 Deutsch, DAZN 2
indiaIndiaGXR World
israelIsrael5 STARS Israel
japanJapanDAZN Japan
kazakhstanKazakhstanSetanta Sports
kosovoKosovoK Sport 1
mexicoMexicoCaliente TV App, Caliente TV
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaDisney+ Caribbean, ESPN 5 Norte
north-macedoniaNorth-macedoniaMaxTV GO
norwayNorwayViaplay, V Sport 1
peruPeruDisney+
polandPolandEleven Sports 2, Eleven Sports 4
portugalPortugalSport TV7
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 5
slovakiaSlovakiaVoyo
south-koreaSouth-koreaCoupang Play
spainSpainbeIN Sports
swedenSwedenViaplay, V Sport Premium
switzerlandSwitzerlandDAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
turkeyTurkeybeIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
ukraineUkraineMEGOGO Futbol 2
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomLigue 1 Pass
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsabeIN Connect, beIN Sports, Fanatiz
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+
worldWorldDisney+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.951.81
Ball Possession
54%46%
Total shots
119
Shots on target
74
Big Chances
15
Corner Kicks
43
Passes
88% (444/502)84% (351/419)
Yellow Cards
14
Expected Goals (xG)
0.951.81
xG on target (xGOT)
1.761.50
Total shots
119
Shots on target
74
Shots off target
33
Blocked Shots
12
Shots inside the Box
68
Shots outside the Box
51
Hit the Woodwork
01
Big Chances
15
Corner Kicks
43
Touches in opposition box
1318
Accurate through passes
21
Offsides
11
Free Kicks
1614
Passes
88% (444/502)84% (351/419)
Long passes
75% (21/28)44% (20/45)
Passes in final third
78% (69/88)53% (42/80)
Crosses
23% (3/13)23% (3/13)
Expected assists (xA)
0.691.06
Throw-ins
1616
Fouls
1416
Tackles
38% (3/8)50% (8/16)
Duels won
5340
Clearances
2712
Interceptions
812
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
33
xGOT faced
1.501.76
Goals prevented
0.50-2.24

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (3 - 1)
  • 8', 1 - 0, Gouiri A. , Luis Henrique (A),
  • 25', 1 - 1, Sima A. , Ajorque L. (A),
  • 36', Ajorque L. 🟨,
  • 37', 2 - 1, Greenwood M. , Rabiot A. (A),
  • 41', Murillo M. 🟨,
  • 45', 3 - 1, Gouiri A. , Greenwood M. (A),
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 63', 4 - 1, Gouiri A. , Rabiot A. (A),
  • 67', Rongier V. , Bennacer I. ,
  • 67', Gouiri A. , Rowe J. ,
  • 69', Sima A. , Doumbia K. ,
  • 69', Magnetti H. , Balde M. ,
  • 71', Chardonnet B. 🟨,
  • 77', Garcia U. , Cornelius D. ,
  • 77', Balerdi L. , Merlin Q. ,
  • 78', Camara M. , Martin J. ,
  • 78', Pereira Lage M. , Del Castillo R. ,
  • 84', Greenwood M. , Harit A. ,
  • 87', Ajorque L. , Makalou H. ,
  • 88', Le Cardinal J. 🟨,
  • 90+2', Lees-Melou P. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Olympique Marseille
68.7%
Draw
18.7%
Brest
12.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
57.9% 22.5% 19.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63% 24.5% 18%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Olympique Marseille has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Olympique Marseille's performance.
  • Brest has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Brest might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (-5.7%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Olympique Marseille that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brest than the current prediction. (+5.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Brest could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Olympique Marseille - Brest Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.39
    (1.65)
    5.11
    (4.24)
    7.64
    (4.86)
    4.7%
    (4.9%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
  • What is the prediction for Olympique Marseille - Brest?
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 11 high ROI users predict this event. Marseille (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Brest (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • O/U 3 - over (votes: 3 - 100%).
  • Users Predictions: Olympique Marseille will win (28 of 34 users predict this - 82.35%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 69.53%95.17%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 9).
    • Last 5 head-to-head matches Marseille won 2.
    • Two teams are playing changeable.
    • Brest could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
    • In this match Marseille is absolute favorite.
    • There will not play in Marseille: Blanco R. (Ankle Injury) Mbemba Ch. (Inactive)
    • There will not play in Brest: Amavi J. (Injury) Bizot M. (Yellow Cards) Bourgault J. (Foot Injury) Coulibaly S. (Injury) Locko B. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Ndiaye A. (Red Card) Salah I. (Foot Injury)
    • There are questionable in Marseille: Balerdi L. (Knee Injury) Luiz Felipe (Eye injury)
    • Last 13 head-to-head matches Marseille won 8 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 25:14 (average 1.9:1.1).
    • Including matches at home between the teams Marseille won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 10:6 (average 1.7:1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Olympique Marseille - Brest were as follows:
    17.08.2024 Brest - Olympique Marseille 1:5
    18.02.2024 Brest - Olympique Marseille 1:0
    26.08.2023 Olympique Marseille - Brest 2:0
    27.05.2023 Olympique Marseille - Brest 1:2
    Latest results of Olympique Marseille
    Latest results of Brest
    20.04.2025 Brest - Lens 1:3
    13.04.2025 Saint-Étienne - Brest 3:3
    05.04.2025 Brest - Monaco 2:1
    30.03.2025 Toulouse - Brest 2:4
    09.03.2025 Brest - Angers 2:0
    French Ligue 1 Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Auxerre00000:000
    2Le Havre00000:000
    3Lille00000:000
    4Lorient00000:000
    5Metz00000:000
    6Monaco00000:000
    7Nantes00000:000
    8Nice00000:000
    9PSG00000:000
    10Strasbourg00000:000
    11Angers00000:000
    12Brest00000:000
    13Paris FC00000:000
    14Marseille00000:000
    15Toulouse00000:000
    16Lens00000:000
    17Rennes00000:000
    18Lyon00000:000

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