Result
2:1
26/08/2025 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- EFL Cup - 1/32-finals
- Referee: Kitchen A. (Eng)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Arena |
 Australia | Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect |
 Czech-republic | Nova Sport 5, Oneplay |
 India | FanCode, FanCode |
 Malta | TSN Malta 3 |
 Slovakia | Voyo |
 United-kingdom | Sky Sports+ |
 Usa | Paramount+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.30 | 0.86 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 55% | 45% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (441/511) | 84% (348/414) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.30 | 0.86 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.44 | 0.50 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 6 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 28 | 17 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (441/511) | 84% (348/414) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 56% (28/50) | 41% (21/51) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 79% (124/157) | 64% (47/73) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 9% (2/22) | 38% (5/13) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.57 | 0.60 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 18 | 13 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 6 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 87% (13/15) | 50% (6/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 52 | 42 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 26 | 31 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 17 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.50 | 1.44 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.50 | -0.56 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 4', 1 - 0, Ramsey A. ⚽, Broja A. (A),
- 35', 1 - 1, Clark B. ⚽, Elder C. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Elder C. ↓, Clarke M. ↑,
- 46', Humphreys B. ↓, Tuanzebe A. ↑,
- 56', Adams E. 🟨,
- 62', Osborn B. ↓, Thompson L. ↑,
- 62', Brewster R. ↓, Weimann A. ↑,
- 62', Clark B. ↓, Brown D. ↑,
- 62', Tchaouna L. ↓, Banel J. ↑,
- 63', Broja A. ↓, Barnes A. ↑,
- 70', Ward J. ↓, Wilson K. ↑,
- 78', Flemming Z. ↓, Tresor Ndayishimiye M. ↑,
- 90+1', 2 - 1, Sonne O. ⚽, Tresor Ndayishimiye M. (A),
- 90+4', Ramsey A. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Burnley
67.3% | Draw
21% | Derby County
11.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Burnley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Burnley's performance.Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Burnley than the current prediction. (-0.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+3.4%)
Burnley - Derby County Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.42 ↓
(1.56) |
4.56 ↑
(4.11) |
8.25 ↑
(5.63) |
4.5%
(6.1%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Burnley - Derby County?
Users Predictions:
11 users predict this event. Burnley will win (votes: 9 - 81.8%). Derby will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Burnley: 59% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Burnley (votes: 2 - 50%). Derby (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Burnley won 2.
- Burnley is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Derby has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Burnley may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Burnley is the obvious favorite.
- There will not play in Burnley: Amdouni Z.
(Knee Injury)
Beyer J.
(Hamstring Injury)
Humphreys B.
(Thigh Injury)
Roberts C.
(Groin Injury)
- There will not play in Derby: Agyemang P.
(Hernia)
Beck O.
(Lacking Match Fitness)
Blackett-Taylor C.
(Hamstring Injury)
Ebuka C.
(Injury)
Langas S.
(Knee Injury)
Nelson C.
(Knee Injury)
Salvesen L.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Burnley: Broja A.
(Lacking Match Fitness)
Esteve M.
(Injury)
Tuanzebe A.
(Muscle Injury)
Ugochukwu L.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Derby: Wilson K.
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Burnley won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 13:2. (average 1.4:0.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Burnley won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:1. (average 1.6:0.2).
How many head-to-head matches has Burnley won against Derby County?
Burnley has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Derby County won against Burnley?
Derby County has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Burnley - Derby County were as follows:
08.04.2025
Derby County
-
Burnley
0:0
10.12.2024
Burnley
-
Derby County
0:0
Latest results of Burnley
Latest results of Derby County
Draw
Main1/64-finals| 1 | Birmingham | Sheffield Utd | 2 : 1 |
| 2 | Blackpool | Port Vale | 0 : 1 |
| 4 | Bye | Arsenal | |
| 5 | Swansea | Crawley | 3 : 1 |
| 6 | Plymouth | QPR | 3 : 2 |
| 8 | Bye | Nottingham | |
| 9 | Tranmere | Burton | 1 : 2 |
| 10 | Harrogate | Lincoln | 1 : 3 |
| 12 | Bye | Chelsea | |
| 13 | Tottenham | Bye | |
| 15 | Accrington | Peterborough | 2 : 1 |
| 16 | Middlesbrough | Doncaster | 0 : 4 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | Bye | |
| 18 | Bye | Brentford | |
| 20 | Bye | Aston Villa | |
| 21 | Sunderland | Bye | |
| 22 | Huddersfield | Leicester | 3 : 2 |
| 24 | Bye | Manchester City | |
| 25 | Liverpool | Bye | |
| 27 | Watford | Norwich | 1 : 2 |
| 28 | Northampton | Southampton | 0 : 1 |
| 29 | Newcastle | Bye | |
| 31 | Stoke | Walsall | 1 : 0 |
| 32 | Blackburn | Bradford City | 1 : 2 |
| 33 | Bolton | Sheffield Wed | 3 : 4 |
| 34 | Bye | Leeds | |
| 35 | Grimsby | Shrewsbury | 3 : 1 |
| 36 | Bye | Manchester Utd | |
| 37 | Wolves | Bye | |
| 38 | Bye | West Ham | |
| 39 | Everton | Bye | |
| 40 | Chesterfield | Mansfield | 0 : 2 |
| 41 | Crystal Palace | Bye | |
| 43 | Newport | Millwall | 0 : 1 |
| 44 | Coventry | Luton | 1 : 0 |
| 45 | Burnley | Bye | |
| 46 | West Brom | Derby | 1 : 2 |
| 47 | Cardiff | Swindon | 2 : 1 |
| 48 | Cheltenham | Exeter | 2 : 0 |
| 49 | Barrow | Preston | 0 : 1 |
| 50 | Wrexham | Hull | 4 : 3 |
| 51 | Portsmouth | Reading | 1 : 2 |
| 52 | Gillingham | AFC Wimbledon | 1 : 2 |
| 53 | Wigan | Notts Co | 1 : 0 |
| 54 | Stockport County | Crewe | 3 : 1 |
| 55 | Bromley | Ipswich | 2 : 1 |
| 56 | Leyton Orient | Wycombe | 0 : 1 |
| 57 | Barnsley | Fleetwood | 3 : 2 |
| 58 | Salford | Rotherham | 0 : 1 |
| 59 | Oxford Utd | Colchester | 1 : 0 |
| 60 | Bye | Brighton | |
| 61 | Fulham | Bye | |
| 62 | Bristol City | MK Dons | 2 : 0 |
| 63 | Bristol Rovers | Cambridge Utd | 0 : 2 |
| 64 | Charlton | Stevenage | 3 : 1 |
1/32-finals| 1 | Birmingham | Port Vale | 0 : 1 |
| 2 | Bye | Arsenal | |
| 3 | Swansea | Plymouth | 2 : 1 |
| 4 | Bye | Nottingham | |
| 5 | Burton | Lincoln | 0 : 1 |
| 6 | Bye | Chelsea | |
| 7 | Tottenham | Bye | |
| 8 | Accrington | Doncaster | 0 : 2 |
| 9 | Bournemouth | Brentford | 0 : 2 |
| 10 | Bye | Aston Villa | |
| 11 | Sunderland | Huddersfield | 1 : 2 |
| 12 | Bye | Manchester City | |
| 13 | Liverpool | Bye | |
| 14 | Norwich | Southampton | 0 : 3 |
| 15 | Newcastle | Bye | |
| 16 | Stoke | Bradford City | 0 : 3 |
| 17 | Sheffield Wed | Leeds | 2 : 1 |
| 18 | Grimsby | Manchester Utd | 3 : 2 |
| 19 | Wolves | West Ham | 3 : 2 |
| 20 | Everton | Mansfield | 2 : 0 |
| 21 | Crystal Palace | Bye | |
| 22 | Millwall | Coventry | 2 : 1 |
| 23 | Burnley | Derby | 2 : 1 |
| 24 | Cardiff | Cheltenham | 3 : 0 |
| 25 | Preston | Wrexham | 2 : 3 |
| 26 | Reading | AFC Wimbledon | 2 : 1 |
| 27 | Wigan | Stockport County | 1 : 0 |
| 28 | Bromley | Wycombe | 1 : 2 |
| 29 | Barnsley | Rotherham | 2 : 1 |
| 30 | Oxford Utd | Brighton | 0 : 6 |
| 31 | Fulham | Bristol City | 2 : 0 |
| 32 | Cambridge Utd | Charlton | 3 : 1 |
1/16-finals| 1 | Port Vale | Arsenal | |
| 2 | Swansea | Nottingham | |
| 3 | Lincoln | Chelsea | |
| 4 | Tottenham | Doncaster | |
| 5 | Brentford | Aston Villa | |
| 6 | Huddersfield | Manchester City | |
| 7 | Liverpool | Southampton | |
| 8 | Newcastle | Bradford City | |
| 9 | Sheffield Wed | Grimsby | |
| 10 | Wolves | Everton | |
| 11 | Crystal Palace | Millwall | |
| 12 | Burnley | Cardiff | |
| 13 | Wrexham | Reading | |
| 14 | Wigan | Wycombe | |
| 15 | Barnsley | Brighton | |
| 16 | Fulham | Cambridge Utd | |
