Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Pablo Carreno-Busta – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Tennis ATP Roma Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Pablo Carreno-Busta
Result
2:1
07/05/2025 at 06:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • ATP - SINGLES: Rome, clay - 1/64-finals

Match Stats

Aces
11
Double Faults
31
1st Serve Percentage
71%69%
1st Serve Points Won
60% (33/55)60% (31/52)
2nd Serve Points Won
57% (13/23)57% (13/23)
Break Points Saved
0% (0/3)64% (7/11)
1st Return Points Won
42% (22/52)42% (23/55)
2nd Return Points Won
43% (10/23)43% (10/23)
Break Points Converted
36% (4/11)100% (3/3)
Winners
3220
Unforced Errors
3130
Net Points Won
100% (6/6)68% (15/22)
Service Points Won
59% (46/78)59% (44/75)
Return Points Won
41% (31/75)41% (32/78)
Total Points Won
50% (77/153)50% (76/153)
Last 10 Balls
55
Match Points Saved
00
Service Games Won
75% (9/12)67% (8/12)
Return Games Won
33% (4/12)25% (3/12)
Total Games Won
54% (13/24)46% (11/24)

Chances of winning


Camilo Ugo Carabelli
49.1%
Pablo Carreno-Busta
50.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
50% 50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.2% 48.8%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Camilo Ugo Carabelli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)
  • Pablo Carreno-Busta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Camilo Ugo Carabelli than the current prediction. (+2.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (-2.1%)
  • Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Pablo Carreno-Busta Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.93
    (1.83)

    1.88
    (1.83)
    5%
    (9.3%)
    What is the prediction for Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Pablo Carreno-Busta?
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Ugo Carabelli (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • Users Predictions: Pablo Carreno-Busta will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 44.94%100%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.
  • Preview Facts
    • Ugo Carabelli is ranked ATP: 60. Carreno Busta is ranked ATP: 98.
    • Ugo Carabelli has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Carreno Busta has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • Ugo Carabelli may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.
    • Recently, the players have not faced each other.
    Latest results of Pablo Carreno-Busta
    Draw
    Singles - Main

    1/64-finals
    1Sinner J. (1)Bye
    2Navone M.Cina F. (WC)2 : 0
    3De Jong J. (LL)Shevchenko A. (Q)2 : 0
    4ByeDavidovich Fokina A. (25)
    5Cerundolo F. (17)Bye
    6Gaston H.Jarry N.0 : 2
    7Carballes Baena R. (RET.)Ofner S. (Q)0 : 1
    8ByeTiafoe F. (15)
    9Shelton B. (12)Bye
    10Barrios Vera T. (Q)Munar J.1 : 2
    11Vukic A.Moreno De Alboran N. (Q)2 : 0
    12ByeKorda S. (22)
    13Berrettini M. (29)Bye
    14Fearnley J.Fognini F. (WC)2 : 0
    15Bublik A.Safiullin R.2 : 0
    16ByeRuud C. (6)
    17Fritz T. (4)Bye
    18Diallo G.Giron M.1 : 2
    19Bellucci M.Martinez P.0 : 2
    20ByeHurkacz H. (30)
    21Mensik J. (20)Bye
    22Rinderknech A.Gigante M. (WC)0 : 2
    23Marozsan F.Fonseca J.2 : 0
    24ByeRublev A. (16)
    25Paul T. (11)Bye
    26Arnaldi M.Bautista-Agut R.0 : 2
    27Tien L.Opelka R. (PR)2 : 0
    28ByeMachac T. (19)
    29Dellien H. (LL)Bye
    30Borges N.Seyboth Wild T. (Q)1 : 2
    31Nardi L. (WC)Cobolli F.2 : 0
    32ByeDe Minaur A. (7)
    33Draper J. (5)Bye
    34Bu Y.Darderi L.0 : 2
    35Kopriva V. (Q)Halys Q.2 : 0
    36ByeBaez S. (32)
    37Humbert U. (21)Bye
    38Hijikata R.Moutet C.1 : 2
    39Altmaier D.Comesana F.0 : 2
    40ByeRune H. (9)
    41Dimitrov G. (14)Bye
    42Passaro F. (WC)Tseng C. H. (Q)2 : 1
    43Sonego L.Burruchaga R. A. (Q)0 : 2
    44ByeKhachanov K. (23)
    45Michelsen A. (31)Bye
    46Djere L.Etcheverry T. M.2 : 0
    47Nishioka Y.Lajovic D. (Q)0 : 2
    48ByeAlcaraz C. (3)
    49Musetti L. (8)Bye
    50Medjedovic H.Virtanen O. (Q)0 : 2
    51Thompson J.Mpetshi Perricard G.2 : 1
    52ByeNakashima B. (28)
    53Popyrin A. (24)Bye
    54Taberner C. (Q)Kovacevic A.2 : 1
    55O'Connell C.Norrie C. (LL)0 : 2
    56ByeMedvedev D. (10)
    57Fils A. (13)Bye
    58Griekspoor T.Kecmanovic M.2 : 1
    59Lehecka J.Muller A.1 : 2
    60ByeTsitsipas S. (18)
    61Shapovalov D. (27)Bye
    62Gaubas V. (Q)Dzumhur D.2 : 1
    63Ugo Carabelli C.Carreno-Busta P. (LL)2 : 1
    64ByeZverev A. (2)

    1/32-finals
    1Sinner J. (1)Navone M.2 : 0
    2De Jong J.Davidovich Fokina A. (25)2 : 0
    3Cerundolo F. (17)Jarry N.2 : 0
    4Ofner S.Tiafoe F. (15)2 : 1
    5Shelton B. (12)Munar J.0 : 2
    6Vukic A.Korda S. (22)0 : 2
    7Berrettini M. (29)Fearnley J.2 : 0
    8Bublik A.Ruud C. (6)1 : 2
    9Fritz T. (4)Giron M.0 : 2
    10Martinez P.Hurkacz H. (30)0 : 2
    11Mensik J. (20)Gigante M.2 : 0
    12Marozsan F.Rublev A. (16)2 : 1
    13Paul T. (11)Bautista-Agut R.2 : 0
    14Tien L.Machac T. (19)0 : 2
    15Dellien H.Seyboth Wild T.2 : 1
    16Nardi L.De Minaur A. (7)0 : 2
    17Draper J. (5)Darderi L.2 : 0
    18Kopriva V.Baez S. (32)2 : 1
    19Humbert U. (RET.) (21)Moutet C.0 : 1
    20Comesana F.Rune H. (9)1 : 2
    21Dimitrov G. (14)Passaro F.0 : 2
    22Burruchaga R. A.Khachanov K. (23)1 : 2
    23Michelsen A. (31)Djere L.0 : 2
    24Lajovic D.Alcaraz C. (3)0 : 2
    25Musetti L. (8)Virtanen O.2 : 0
    26Thompson J.Nakashima B. (WO.) (28)
    27Popyrin A. (24)Taberner C.2 : 0
    28Norrie C.Medvedev D. (10)0 : 2
    29Fils A. (13)Griekspoor T.2 : 0
    30Muller A.Tsitsipas S. (18)0 : 2
    31Shapovalov D. (27)Gaubas V.0 : 2
    32Ugo Carabelli C.Zverev A. (2)0 : 2

    1/16-finals
    1Sinner J. (1)De Jong J.2 : 0
    2Cerundolo F. (17)Ofner S.2 : 0
    3Munar J.Korda S. (22)2 : 0
    4Berrettini M. (RET.) (29)Ruud C. (6)0 : 1
    5Giron M.Hurkacz H. (30)1 : 2
    6Mensik J. (20)Marozsan F.2 : 0
    7Paul T. (11)Machac T. (19)2 : 1
    8Dellien H.De Minaur A. (7)0 : 2
    9Draper J. (5)Kopriva V.2 : 0
    10Moutet C.Rune H. (9)2 : 1
    11Passaro F.Khachanov K. (23)0 : 2
    12Djere L.Alcaraz C. (3)0 : 2
    13Musetti L. (8)Nakashima B. (28)2 : 0
    14Popyrin A. (24)Medvedev D. (10)0 : 2
    15Fils A. (13)Tsitsipas S. (18)2 : 1
    16Gaubas V.Zverev A. (2)0 : 2

    1/8-finals
    1Sinner J. (1)Cerundolo F. (17)2 : 0
    2Munar J.Ruud C. (6)0 : 2
    3Hurkacz H. (30)Mensik J. (20)2 : 1
    4Paul T. (11)De Minaur A. (7)2 : 0
    5Draper J. (5)Moutet C.2 : 1
    6Khachanov K. (23)Alcaraz C. (3)1 : 2
    7Musetti L. (8)Medvedev D. (10)2 : 0
    8Fils A. (13)Zverev A. (2)0 : 2

    Quarter-finals
    1Sinner J. (1)Ruud C. (6)2 : 0
    2Hurkacz H. (30)Paul T. (11)0 : 2
    3Draper J. (5)Alcaraz C. (3)0 : 2
    4Musetti L. (8)Zverev A. (2)2 : 0

    Semi-finals
    1Sinner J. (1)Paul T. (11)2 : 1
    2Alcaraz C. (3)Musetti L. (8)2 : 0

    Final
    1Sinner J. (1)Alcaraz C. (3)0 : 2