Result
0:1
04/03/2026 at 17:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Copa Libertadores - Qualification - Final
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Disney+, FOX Sports |
 Australia | beIN Connect |
 Bolivia | ESPN 2, ESPN |
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 3, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Canada | beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol |
 Colombia | ESPN 2 |
 Ecuador | ESPN 2 |
 Mexico | Disney+, ESPN 2 |
 New-zealand | beIN Connect |
 Paraguay | ESPN 2 |
 Peru | Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN |
 Spain | LaLiga+ |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz |
 Venezuela | Disney+, ESPN 2, Inter |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.97 | 1.08 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 58% | 42% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (303/366) | 71% (194/274) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 0 | 4 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.97 | 1.08 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.87 | 0.89 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 3 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 25 | 11 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 16 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (303/366) | 71% (194/274) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 53% (25/47) | 26% (15/58) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 72% (92/128) | 61% (43/70) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 29% (9/31) | 33% (3/9) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 2.09 | 0.25 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 24 | 19 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 16 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 62% (8/13) | 71% (10/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 48 | 40 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 18 | 26 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.89 | 0.87 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.11 | 0.87 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 14', 0 - 1, Yotun Y. (Penalty Awarded),
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 47', Tavara M. 🟨,
- 56', Castillo E. ↓, Orozco Y. ↑,
- 65', Gabriel ↓, Cazonatti G. ↑,
- 65', Gonzales C. ↓, Avila I. ↑,
- 66', Avila I. 🟨,
- 69', Riasco J. ↓, Moreno Ciorciari J. J. ↑,
- 79', Tortolero E. ↓, Martinez L. ↑,
- 84', Cabellos C. 🟨,
- 84', Tavara M. ↓, Posito Olazabal A. J. ↑,
- 89', Cristiano 🟨,
- 90+3', Cabellos C. ↓, Gonzalez J. ↑,
Chances of winning
Carabobo
35.4% | Draw
32.1% | Sporting Cristal
32.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Carabobo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.6%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Carabobo's performance.Sporting Cristal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-25.2%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sporting Cristal might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carabobo than the current prediction. (-15.5%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Carabobo that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sporting Cristal than the current prediction. (+27.8%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sporting Cristal could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Carabobo - Sporting Cristal Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.66 ↓
(4.5) |
2.94 ↓
(4.33) |
2.87 ↑
(1.62) |
6.5%
(7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Carabobo - Sporting Cristal?
Users Predictions:
14 users predict this event. Carabobo will win (votes: 7 - 50%). Sporting Cristal will win (votes: 1 - 7.1%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 42.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Carabobo: 23.8% – 76.2%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 8 high ROI users predict this event. Carabobo (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- DC - Carabobo (1.37) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +0.5 - Sporting Cristal (2.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 10 high ROI users predict this event. Carabobo (votes: 6 - 60%). Sporting Cristal (votes: 1 - 10%). Tie (votes: 3 - 30%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- First leg.
- Carabobo is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Sporting Cristal's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
- In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.
How many head-to-head matches has Carabobo won against Sporting Cristal?
Carabobo has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Sporting Cristal won against Carabobo?
Sporting Cristal has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Carabobo - Sporting Cristal were as follows:
Latest results of Carabobo
Latest results of Sporting Cristal
Draw
2026Quarter-finals| 1 | Juventud | U. Catolica | 5 : 3, 0 : 1 |
| 2 | Bye | Guarani | |
| 3 | Liverpool M. | Bye | |
| 4 | Bye | Ind. Medellin | |
| 5 | The Strongest | Dep. Tachira | 0 : 2, 2 : 1 |
| 6 | Bye | Deportes Tolima | |
| 7 | O'Higgins | Bye | |
| 8 | Bye | Bahia | |
| 9 | 2 de Mayo | Alianza Lima | 1 : 1, 1 : 0 |
| 10 | Bye | Sporting Cristal | |
| 11 | Carabobo | Bye | |
| 12 | Bye | Huachipato | |
| 13 | Barcelona SC | Bye | |
| 14 | Bye | Argentinos Jrs | |
| 15 | Nacional Potosi | Bye | |
| 16 | Bye | Botafogo RJ | |
Semi-finals| 1 | Juventud | Guarani | 2 : 1, 0 : 0 |
| 2 | Liverpool M. | Ind. Medellin | 0 : 0, 1 : 2 |
| 3 | Dep. Tachira | Deportes Tolima | 1 : 1, 0 : 1 |
| 4 | O'Higgins | Bahia | 2 : 2, 1 : 0 |
| 5 | 2 de Mayo | Sporting Cristal | 0 : 1, 2 : 2 |
| 6 | Carabobo | Huachipato | 2 : 1, 1 : 0 |
| 7 | Barcelona SC | Argentinos Jrs | 2 : 0, 0 : 1 |
| 8 | Nacional Potosi | Botafogo RJ | 0 : 2, 1 : 0 |
Final| 1 | Juventud | Ind. Medellin | |
| 2 | Deportes Tolima | O'Higgins | 0 : 1 |
| 3 | Sporting Cristal | Carabobo | 1 : 0 |
| 4 | Barcelona SC | Botafogo RJ | 1 : 1 |
