Result
2:2 penalties
11/03/2026 at 18:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Copa Libertadores - Qualification - Final
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Disney+, FOX Sports |
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD |
 Australia | beIN Connect |
 Bolivia | ESPN 2, ESPN 5, ESPN |
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 3, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Canada | beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol |
 Chile | ESPN Premium |
 Colombia | ESPN 2, ESPN 5 |
 Ecuador | ESPN 2, ESPN 5, ESPN |
 Italy | Como TV |
 Mexico | Disney+ |
 New-zealand | beIN Connect |
 Paraguay | ESPN 2, ESPN 5 |
 Peru | Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN 5, ESPN |
 Spain | LaLiga+ |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol |
 Venezuela | Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN 5, ESPN, Inter |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.86 | 1.22 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 66% | 34% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (507/584) | 73% (219/301) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.86 | 1.22 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.37 | 0.72 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 8 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 12 | 7 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 24 | 11 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (507/584) | 73% (219/301) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 67% (37/55) | 34% (22/65) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 75% (120/161) | 62% (56/91) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 22% (7/32) | 29% (4/14) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.53 | 0.61 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 23 | 9 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 72% (13/18) | 50% (8/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 56 | 43 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 25 | 37 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.72 | 1.37 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.28 | 0.37 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 2)
- 4', 0 - 1, Castillo E. ⚽, Berios J. (A),
- 29', 0 - 2, Castillo E. ⚽, Riasco J. (A),
- 32', Tortolero E. 🟨,
- 34', Iberico L. ↓, Gonzalez S. ↑,
- 35', Cabellos C. ↓, Castro M. ↑,
- 39', Tavara M. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Tortolero E. ↓, Orozco Y. ↑,
- 46', Vizeu F. ↓, Avila I. ↑,
- 50', 1 - 2, Castro M. ⚽, Sosa L. (A),
- 56', Riasco J. ↓, Guaramato M. ↑,
- 71', Berios J. 🟨,
- 72', Berios J. ↓, Moreno Ciorciari J. J. ↑,
- 78', Tavara M. ↓, Cazonatti G. ↑,
- 78', Bilbao J. ↓, Aponte L. ↑,
- 78', Castillo E. ↓, Bahachille A. ↑,
- 90', Yotun Y. 🟨,
- 90', Gabriel ↓, Gonzales C. ↑,
- 90+1', Fuentes J. 🟨,
- 90+5', Sosa L. 🟨,
- Penalties (3 - 2)
- 1, Cova M. (Penalty Awarded),
- 1, Yotun Y. (Penalty Awarded),
- 2, Orozco Y. (Penalty Awarded),
- 2, Avila I. (Penalty Awarded),
- 3, Aponte L. (Penalty Awarded),
- 3, Gonzalez S. (Penalty Awarded),
- 4, Nunez M. (Penalty Awarded),
- 4, Gonzales C. (Penalty Awarded),
- 5, Oliveros F. (Penalty Awarded),
- 5, Cristiano (Penalty Awarded),
Chances of winning
Sporting Cristal
49.4% | Draw
28.7% | Carabobo
21.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Sporting Cristal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sporting Cristal's form might have worsened.Carabobo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sporting Cristal than the current prediction. (+11.1%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sporting Cristal, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carabobo than the current prediction. (-4.6%)
Sporting Cristal - Carabobo Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.91 ↑
(1.63) |
3.3 ↓
(3.9) |
4.4 ↓
(5.2) |
5.5%
(6.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Sporting Cristal - Carabobo?
Users Predictions:
6 users predict this event. Sporting Cristal will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Carabobo will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%). High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Carabobo (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- DC - Carabobo (1.83) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Carabobo (votes: 3 - 75%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- First leg result: 1-0. Second leg.
- Sporting Cristal is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Carabobo's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- In this match, Sporting Cristal is seen as the favorite.
- In the last 1 head-to-head match, Sporting Cristal won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.
How many head-to-head matches has Sporting Cristal won against Carabobo?
Sporting Cristal has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Carabobo won against Sporting Cristal?
Carabobo has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Sporting Cristal - Carabobo were as follows:
04.03.2026
Carabobo
-
Sporting Cristal
0:1
Latest results of Sporting Cristal
Latest results of Carabobo
Draw
QualificationQuarter-finals| 1 | Juventud | U. Catolica | 5 : 3, 0 : 1 |
| 2 | Bye | Guarani | |
| 3 | Liverpool M. | Bye | |
| 4 | Bye | Ind. Medellin | |
| 5 | The Strongest | Dep. Tachira | 0 : 2, 2 : 1 |
| 6 | Bye | Deportes Tolima | |
| 7 | O'Higgins | Bye | |
| 8 | Bye | Bahia | |
| 9 | 2 de Mayo | Alianza Lima | 1 : 1, 1 : 0 |
| 10 | Bye | Sporting Cristal | |
| 11 | Carabobo | Bye | |
| 12 | Bye | Huachipato | |
| 13 | Barcelona SC | Bye | |
| 14 | Bye | Argentinos Jrs | |
| 15 | Nacional Potosi | Bye | |
| 16 | Bye | Botafogo RJ | |
Semi-finals| 1 | Juventud | Guarani | 2 : 1, 0 : 0 |
| 2 | Liverpool M. | Ind. Medellin | 0 : 0, 1 : 2 |
| 3 | Dep. Tachira | Deportes Tolima | 1 : 1, 0 : 1 |
| 4 | O'Higgins | Bahia | 2 : 2, 1 : 0 |
| 5 | 2 de Mayo | Sporting Cristal | 0 : 1, 2 : 2 |
| 6 | Carabobo | Huachipato | 2 : 1, 1 : 0 |
| 7 | Barcelona SC | Argentinos Jrs | 2 : 0, 0 : 1 |
| 8 | Nacional Potosi | Botafogo RJ | 0 : 2, 1 : 0 |
Final| 1 | Juventud | Ind. Medellin | 1 : 2, 1 : 1 |
| 2 | Deportes Tolima | O'Higgins | 2 : 0, 0 : 1 |
| 3 | Sporting Cristal | Carabobo | 2 : 2, 1 : 0 |
| 4 | Barcelona SC | Botafogo RJ | 1 : 0, 1 : 1 |
