Carlisle United vs Swindon Town – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

01/02/2025 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Brunton Park (Carlisle).

ENGLAND: League Two - Round 30
Referee: Joyce R. (Eng)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.54	2.07
Ball Possession
58%	42%
Goal Attempts
15	14
Shots on Goal
5	8
Shots off Goal
6	2
Blocked Shots
4	4
Big Chances
1	3
Corner Kicks
11	7
Shots inside the Box
11	10
Shots outside the Box
4	4
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
3	4
Free Kicks
11	6
Offsides
1	1
Fouls
6	11
Yellow Cards
3	2
Red Cards
1	0
Throw-ins
24	11
Touches in the Opposition Box
24	26
Passes
83% (387/467)	72% (246/340)
Passes in the final third
66% (77/116)	59% (67/114)
Crosses
24% (8/34)	16% (3/19)
Tackles
67% (8/12)	85% (11/13)
Clearances Total
29	36
Interceptions
5	10

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 1)
29', Clarke O. ↓, Drinan A. ↑,
36', Jones J. 🟨,
45+2', 0 - 1, Butterworth D. ⚽, Nichols T. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 4)
47', 0 - 2, Drinan A. ⚽,
54', Embleton E. ↓, Scott C. ↑,
62', Nichols T. ↓, Cotterill J. ↑,
64', Smith H. 🟨,
67', Jones J. 🟨,
67', 🟨,
70', Patching W. ↓, Bevan J. ↑,
74', Smith H. ↓, Westley J. ↑,
74', Ofoborh N. ↓, Tshimanga K. ↑,
75', Butterworth D. ↓, Glatzel P. ↑,
80', Whelan C. ↓, Robson E. ↑,
81', Harris K. ↓, Fusire S. ↑,
83', 0 - 3, Westley J. ⚽, Glatzel P. (A),
88', 1 - 3, Hugill J. ⚽, Williams J. (A),
89', Delaney R. 🟨,
90', 1 - 4, Glatzel P. ⚽, Tshimanga K. (A),
90+7', 1 - 5, Wright W. ⚽,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Carlisle United
37.2%

Draw
29.4%

Swindon Town
33.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.5%

27.4%

28.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.6%

28.1%

27.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlisle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Carlisle United's form might have worsened.

Swindon Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Swindon Town's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Carlisle United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Swindon Town than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Swindon Town, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Carlisle United - Swindon Town Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.53 ↑ (2.1)	3.2 ↓ (3.41)	2.83 ↓ (3.31)	6.1% (7.1%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for Carlisle United - Swindon Town?

Users Predictions: Swindon Town will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 23 in the zone Relegation ~ National League and 16).
Last 5 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 3.
Carlisle is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Swindon is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
Swindon could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
Recently Carlisle have a series of guest games.
Recently Swindon have a series of home games.
The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.
Last 15 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 6 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 21:22 (average 1.4:1.5).
Including matches at home between the teams Carlisle won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8:10 (average 1.1:1.4).

How many head-to-head matches has Carlisle United won against Swindon Town?

Carlisle United has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Swindon Town won against Carlisle United?

Swindon Town has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Carlisle United - Swindon Town were as follows:

21.09.2024 Swindon Town - Carlisle United 0:2

11.03.2023 Swindon Town - Carlisle United 1:2

Latest results of Carlisle United

28.01.2025 Notts County - Carlisle United 1:0 ✺

25.01.2025 Fleetwood Town - Carlisle United 1:2 ✺

18.01.2025 Carlisle United - Bradford City 0:1 ✺

04.01.2025 Tranmere Rovers - Carlisle United 1:0 ✺

01.01.2025 Crewe Alexandra - Carlisle United 3:2 ✺

Latest results of Swindon Town

28.01.2025 Swindon Town - Tranmere Rovers 3:1 ✺

24.01.2025 Newport County - Swindon Town 1:2 ✺

18.01.2025 Swindon Town - Barrow 2:0 ✺

14.01.2025 Swindon Town - Birmingham City 1:2 ✺

11.01.2025 Swindon Town - Crewe Alexandra 0:0 ✺

English League Two Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Bromley	43	23	14	6	68:43	25	83
2	MK Dons	43	22	13	8	79:43	36	79
3	Cambridge Utd	42	21	14	7	62:31	31	77
4	Notts Co	43	23	7	13	71:49	22	76
5	Swindon	43	22	8	13	67:51	16	74
6	Salford	43	23	5	15	57:50	7	74
7	Chesterfield	42	18	15	9	64:53	11	69
8	Grimsby	41	19	11	11	62:45	17	68
9	Barnet	43	18	13	12	60:49	11	67
10	Crewe	43	19	9	15	63:53	10	66
11	Oldham	42	17	14	11	52:36	16	65
12	Walsall	43	17	11	15	52:50	2	62
13	Colchester	42	16	12	14	56:45	11	60
14	Fleetwood	43	15	13	15	53:54	-1	58
15	Bristol Rovers	43	17	4	22	49:63	-14	55
16	Accrington	42	14	9	19	41:48	-7	51
17	Gillingham	42	12	14	16	48:60	-12	50
18	Shrewsbury	43	13	8	22	40:66	-26	47
19	Cheltenham	41	12	10	19	48:67	-19	46
20	Tranmere	42	9	10	23	49:72	-23	37
21	Crawley	43	8	13	22	41:65	-24	37
22	Newport	43	10	7	26	43:73	-30	37
23	Barrow	42	8	9	25	40:68	-28	33
24	Harrogate	43	8	9	26	35:66	-31	33

      Promotion ~ League One
      Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
      Relegation ~ National League