Result
1:5
01/02/2025 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- ENGLAND: League Two - Round 30
- Referee: Joyce R. (Eng)
Match Stats
| |
---|
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
1.54 | 2.07 |
Ball Possession |
---|
58% | 42% |
Goal Attempts |
---|
15 | 14 |
Shots on Goal |
---|
5 | 8 |
Shots off Goal |
---|
6 | 2 |
Blocked Shots |
---|
4 | 4 |
Big Chances |
---|
1 | 3 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
11 | 7 |
Shots inside the Box |
---|
11 | 10 |
Shots outside the Box |
---|
4 | 4 |
Hit the Woodwork |
---|
0 | 0 |
Goalkeeper Saves |
---|
3 | 4 |
Free Kicks |
---|
11 | 6 |
Offsides |
---|
1 | 1 |
Fouls |
---|
6 | 11 |
Yellow Cards |
---|
3 | 2 |
Red Cards |
---|
1 | 0 |
Throw-ins |
---|
24 | 11 |
Touches in the Opposition Box |
---|
24 | 26 |
Passes |
---|
83% (387/467) | 72% (246/340) |
Passes in the final third |
---|
66% (77/116) | 59% (67/114) |
Crosses |
---|
24% (8/34) | 16% (3/19) |
Tackles |
---|
67% (8/12) | 85% (11/13) |
Clearances Total |
---|
29 | 36 |
Interceptions |
---|
5 | 10 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 29', Clarke O. ↓, Drinan A. ↑,
- 36', Jones J. 🟨,
- 45+2', 0 - 1, Butterworth D. ⚽, Nichols T. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 4)
- 47', 0 - 2, Drinan A. ⚽,
- 54', Embleton E. ↓, Scott C. ↑,
- 62', Nichols T. ↓, Cotterill J. ↑,
- 64', Smith H. 🟨,
- 67', Jones J. 🟨,
- 67', 🟨,
- 70', Patching W. ↓, Bevan J. ↑,
- 74', Smith H. ↓, Westley J. ↑,
- 74', Ofoborh N. ↓, Tshimanga K. ↑,
- 75', Butterworth D. ↓, Glatzel P. ↑,
- 80', Whelan C. ↓, Robson E. ↑,
- 81', Harris K. ↓, Fusire S. ↑,
- 83', 0 - 3, Westley J. ⚽, Glatzel P. (A),
- 88', 1 - 3, Hugill J. ⚽, Williams J. (A),
- 89', Delaney R. 🟨,
- 90', 1 - 4, Glatzel P. ⚽, Tshimanga K. (A),
- 90+7', 1 - 5, Wright W. ⚽,
Chances of winning
Carlisle United 37.2% | Draw 29.4% | Swindon Town 33.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Carlisle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Carlisle United's form might have worsened.Swindon Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Swindon Town's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (+8.4%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Carlisle United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Swindon Town than the current prediction. (-5.8%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Swindon Town, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Carlisle United - Swindon Town Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now (Initially) |
2.53 ↑ (2.1) |
3.2 ↓ (3.41) |
2.83 ↓ (3.31) |
6.1% (7.1%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Carlisle United - Swindon Town?
Users Predictions:
Swindon Town will win
(5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 23 in the zone Relegation ~ National League and 16).
- Last 5 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 3.
- Carlisle is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
- Swindon is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
- Swindon could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
- Recently Carlisle have a series of guest games.
- Recently Swindon have a series of home games.
- The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.
- Last 15 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 6 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 21:22 (average 1.4:1.5).
- Including matches at home between the teams Carlisle won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8:10 (average 1.1:1.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Carlisle United won against Swindon Town?
Carlisle United has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Swindon Town won against Carlisle United?
Swindon Town has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Carlisle United - Swindon Town were as follows:
21.09.2024
Swindon Town
-
Carlisle United
0:2
11.03.2023
Swindon Town
-
Carlisle United
1:2
Latest results of Carlisle United
Latest results of Swindon Town
English League Two Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
1 | Walsall | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 15:8 | 7 | 22 |
2 | Swindon | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21:13 | 8 | 21 |
3 | Gillingham | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 15:7 | 8 | 21 |
4 | Salford | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 17:13 | 4 | 19 |
5 | Grimsby | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 21:13 | 8 | 18 |
6 | Chesterfield | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18:13 | 5 | 18 |
7 | Bristol Rovers | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12:11 | 1 | 17 |
8 | Crewe | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 14:11 | 3 | 16 |
9 | MK Dons | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16:10 | 6 | 15 |
10 | Cambridge Utd | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 11:9 | 2 | 15 |
11 | Fleetwood | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15:14 | 1 | 15 |
12 | Notts Co | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17:12 | 5 | 14 |
13 | Oldham | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 9:6 | 3 | 14 |
14 | Bromley | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 14:12 | 2 | 14 |
15 | Barnet | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 12:12 | 0 | 14 |
16 | Harrogate | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11:12 | -1 | 14 |
17 | Barrow | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 9:12 | -3 | 12 |
18 | Tranmere | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 13:12 | 1 | 10 |
19 | Accrington | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7:11 | -4 | 9 |
20 | Colchester | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 10:14 | -4 | 8 |
21 | Crawley | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8:17 | -9 | 8 |
22 | Newport | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10:20 | -10 | 5 |
23 | Shrewsbury | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7:20 | -13 | 5 |
24 | Cheltenham | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4:24 | -20 | 4 |
Promotion ~ League One
Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Relegation ~ National League