Jack Draper vs Carlos Alcaraz Garfia – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

14/05/2025 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

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ATP - SINGLES: Rome, clay - Quarter-finals

Match Stats


Aces
1	1
Double Faults
2	3
1st Serve Percentage
68%	61%
1st Serve Points Won
56% (18/32)	61% (30/49)
2nd Serve Points Won
47% (7/15)	58% (18/31)
Break Points Saved
0% (0/4)	75% (6/8)
Average 1st Serve Speed
201 km/h	192 km/h
Average 2nd Serve Speed
164 km/h	162 km/h
1st Return Points Won
39% (19/49)	44% (14/32)
2nd Return Points Won
42% (13/31)	53% (8/15)
Break Points Converted
25% (2/8)	100% (4/4)
Winners
8	24
Unforced Errors
17	29
Net Points Won
60% (3/5)	76% (13/17)
Service Points Won
53% (25/47)	60% (50/84)
Return Points Won
40% (34/84)	47% (22/47)
Total Points Won
45% (59/131)	55% (72/131)
Last 10 Balls
1	9
Match Points Saved
0	0
Service Games Won
60% (6/10)	80% (8/10)
Return Games Won
20% (2/10)	40% (4/10)
Total Games Won
40% (8/20)	60% (12/20)

Chances of winning

Jack Draper
30.1%

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia
69.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.2%

67.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.7%

69.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jack Draper has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jack Draper than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlos Alcaraz Garfia than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Jack Draper - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.15 ↑ (2.87)		1.37 ↑ (1.36)	4.7% (8.4%)

What is the prediction for Jack Draper - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia?

Users Predictions: 34 users predict this event. Draper will win (votes: 3 - 8.8%). Alcaraz Garfia will win (votes: 31 - 91.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alcaraz Garfia: 81.7% – 100%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Carlos Alcaraz Garfia will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.

Preview Facts

Draper is ranked ATP: 5. Alcaraz Garfia is ranked ATP: 3.
Draper is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).
Alcaraz Garfia has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Alcaraz Garfia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, Alcaraz Garfia is a strong favorite.
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Draper won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 1:0.6).

How many head-to-head matches has Jack Draper won against Carlos Alcaraz Garfia?

Jack Draper has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Carlos Alcaraz Garfia won against Jack Draper?

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Jack Draper - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia were as follows:

15.03.2025 Jack Draper - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 2:1

19.01.2025 Jack Draper - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia Draper J. retired

20.06.2024 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Jack Draper 0:2

14.03.2023 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Jack Draper 1:0

24.10.2022 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Jack Draper 2:1

Latest results of Jack Draper

13.05.2025 Jack Draper - Corentin Moutet 2:1 ✺

11.05.2025 Jack Draper - Vit Kopriva 2:0 ✺

09.05.2025 Jack Draper - Luciano Darderi 2:0 ✺

04.05.2025 Casper Ruud - Jack Draper 2:1 ✺

02.05.2025 Jack Draper - Lorenzo Musetti 2:0 ✺

Latest results of Carlos Alcaraz Garfia

13.05.2025 Karen Khachanov - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 1:2 ✺

11.05.2025 Laslo Djere - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 0:2 ✺

09.05.2025 Dusan Lajovic - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia 0:2 ✺

25.04.2025 Gabriel Diallo - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia Canceled ✺

20.04.2025 Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune 0:2 ✺

Draw

Singles - Main

1/64-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Bye
2	Navone M.	Cina F. (WC)	2 : 0
3	De Jong J. (LL)	Shevchenko A. (Q)	2 : 0
4	Bye	Davidovich Fokina A. (25)
5	Cerundolo F. (17)	Bye
6	Gaston H.	Jarry N.	0 : 2
7	Carballes Baena R. (RET.)	Ofner S. (Q)	0 : 1
8	Bye	Tiafoe F. (15)
9	Shelton B. (12)	Bye
10	Barrios Vera T. (Q)	Munar J.	1 : 2
11	Vukic A.	Moreno De Alboran N. (Q)	2 : 0
12	Bye	Korda S. (22)
13	Berrettini M. (29)	Bye
14	Fearnley J.	Fognini F. (WC)	2 : 0
15	Bublik A.	Safiullin R.	2 : 0
16	Bye	Ruud C. (6)
17	Fritz T. (4)	Bye
18	Diallo G.	Giron M.	1 : 2
19	Bellucci M.	Martinez P.	0 : 2
20	Bye	Hurkacz H. (30)
21	Mensik J. (20)	Bye
22	Rinderknech A.	Gigante M. (WC)	0 : 2
23	Marozsan F.	Fonseca J.	2 : 0
24	Bye	Rublev A. (16)
25	Paul T. (11)	Bye
26	Arnaldi M.	Bautista-Agut R.	0 : 2
27	Tien L.	Opelka R. (PR)	2 : 0
28	Bye	Machac T. (19)
29	Dellien H. (LL)	Bye
30	Borges N.	Seyboth Wild T. (Q)	1 : 2
31	Nardi L. (WC)	Cobolli F.	2 : 0
32	Bye	De Minaur A. (7)
33	Draper J. (5)	Bye
34	Bu Y.	Darderi L.	0 : 2
35	Kopriva V. (Q)	Halys Q.	2 : 0
36	Bye	Baez S. (32)
37	Humbert U. (21)	Bye
38	Hijikata R.	Moutet C.	1 : 2
39	Altmaier D.	Comesana F.	0 : 2
40	Bye	Rune H. (9)
41	Dimitrov G. (14)	Bye
42	Passaro F. (WC)	Tseng C. H. (Q)	2 : 1
43	Sonego L.	Burruchaga R. A. (Q)	0 : 2
44	Bye	Khachanov K. (23)
45	Michelsen A. (31)	Bye
46	Djere L.	Etcheverry T. M.	2 : 0
47	Nishioka Y.	Lajovic D. (Q)	0 : 2
48	Bye	Alcaraz C. (3)
49	Musetti L. (8)	Bye
50	Medjedovic H.	Virtanen O. (Q)	0 : 2
51	Thompson J.	Mpetshi Perricard G.	2 : 1
52	Bye	Nakashima B. (28)
53	Popyrin A. (24)	Bye
54	Taberner C. (Q)	Kovacevic A.	2 : 1
55	O'Connell C.	Norrie C. (LL)	0 : 2
56	Bye	Medvedev D. (10)
57	Fils A. (13)	Bye
58	Griekspoor T.	Kecmanovic M.	2 : 1
59	Lehecka J.	Muller A.	1 : 2
60	Bye	Tsitsipas S. (18)
61	Shapovalov D. (27)	Bye
62	Gaubas V. (Q)	Dzumhur D.	2 : 1
63	Ugo Carabelli C.	Carreno-Busta P. (LL)	2 : 1
64	Bye	Zverev A. (2)

1/32-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Navone M.	2 : 0
2	De Jong J.	Davidovich Fokina A. (25)	2 : 0
3	Cerundolo F. (17)	Jarry N.	2 : 0
4	Ofner S.	Tiafoe F. (15)	2 : 1
5	Shelton B. (12)	Munar J.	0 : 2
6	Vukic A.	Korda S. (22)	0 : 2
7	Berrettini M. (29)	Fearnley J.	2 : 0
8	Bublik A.	Ruud C. (6)	1 : 2
9	Fritz T. (4)	Giron M.	0 : 2
10	Martinez P.	Hurkacz H. (30)	0 : 2
11	Mensik J. (20)	Gigante M.	2 : 0
12	Marozsan F.	Rublev A. (16)	2 : 1
13	Paul T. (11)	Bautista-Agut R.	2 : 0
14	Tien L.	Machac T. (19)	0 : 2
15	Dellien H.	Seyboth Wild T.	2 : 1
16	Nardi L.	De Minaur A. (7)	0 : 2
17	Draper J. (5)	Darderi L.	2 : 0
18	Kopriva V.	Baez S. (32)	2 : 1
19	Humbert U. (RET.) (21)	Moutet C.	0 : 1
20	Comesana F.	Rune H. (9)	1 : 2
21	Dimitrov G. (14)	Passaro F.	0 : 2
22	Burruchaga R. A.	Khachanov K. (23)	1 : 2
23	Michelsen A. (31)	Djere L.	0 : 2
24	Lajovic D.	Alcaraz C. (3)	0 : 2
25	Musetti L. (8)	Virtanen O.	2 : 0
26	Thompson J.	Nakashima B. (WO.) (28)
27	Popyrin A. (24)	Taberner C.	2 : 0
28	Norrie C.	Medvedev D. (10)	0 : 2
29	Fils A. (13)	Griekspoor T.	2 : 0
30	Muller A.	Tsitsipas S. (18)	0 : 2
31	Shapovalov D. (27)	Gaubas V.	0 : 2
32	Ugo Carabelli C.	Zverev A. (2)	0 : 2

1/16-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	De Jong J.	2 : 0
2	Cerundolo F. (17)	Ofner S.	2 : 0
3	Munar J.	Korda S. (22)	2 : 0
4	Berrettini M. (RET.) (29)	Ruud C. (6)	0 : 1
5	Giron M.	Hurkacz H. (30)	1 : 2
6	Mensik J. (20)	Marozsan F.	2 : 0
7	Paul T. (11)	Machac T. (19)	2 : 1
8	Dellien H.	De Minaur A. (7)	0 : 2
9	Draper J. (5)	Kopriva V.	2 : 0
10	Moutet C.	Rune H. (9)	2 : 1
11	Passaro F.	Khachanov K. (23)	0 : 2
12	Djere L.	Alcaraz C. (3)	0 : 2
13	Musetti L. (8)	Nakashima B. (28)	2 : 0
14	Popyrin A. (24)	Medvedev D. (10)	0 : 2
15	Fils A. (13)	Tsitsipas S. (18)	2 : 1
16	Gaubas V.	Zverev A. (2)	0 : 2

1/8-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Cerundolo F. (17)	2 : 0
2	Munar J.	Ruud C. (6)	0 : 2
3	Hurkacz H. (30)	Mensik J. (20)	2 : 1
4	Paul T. (11)	De Minaur A. (7)	2 : 0
5	Draper J. (5)	Moutet C.	2 : 1
6	Khachanov K. (23)	Alcaraz C. (3)	1 : 2
7	Musetti L. (8)	Medvedev D. (10)	2 : 0
8	Fils A. (13)	Zverev A. (2)	0 : 2

Quarter-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Ruud C. (6)	2 : 0
2	Hurkacz H. (30)	Paul T. (11)	0 : 2
3	Draper J. (5)	Alcaraz C. (3)	0 : 2
4	Musetti L. (8)	Zverev A. (2)	2 : 0

Semi-finals

1	Sinner J. (1)	Paul T. (11)	2 : 1
2	Alcaraz C. (3)	Musetti L. (8)	2 : 0

Final

1

Sinner J. (1)

Alcaraz C. (3)

0 : 2