Casper Ruud vs Jack Draper – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Result
2:1
04/05/2025 at 12:40 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - Final
  • Where to Watch on TV:
australiaAustraliabeIN Sports 1
brazilBrazilESPN 2
bulgariaBulgariaMax Sport 1
czech-republicCzech-republicPremier Sport 1
denmarkDenmarkTV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
finlandFinlandMTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
franceFranceEurosport 1
germanyGermanySky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top Event
netherlandsNetherlandsZiggo Sport 4
polandPolandPolsat Sport 3, Polsat Sport Premium 1
portugalPortugalSport TV5
romaniaRomaniaDigi Sport 3, Prima Sport 3
swedenSwedenTV4 Play, TV4 Tennis
ukraineUkraineSetanta Sports Premium
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomSky Sports Tennis

Match Stats

Aces
96
Double Faults
73
1st Serve Percentage
60%64%
1st Serve Points Won
81% (47/58)73% (49/67)
2nd Serve Points Won
38% (15/39)46% (17/37)
Break Points Saved
57% (4/7)70% (7/10)
Average 1st Serve Speed
199 km/h202 km/h
Average 2nd Serve Speed
173 km/h156 km/h
1st Return Points Won
31% (21/67)19% (11/58)
2nd Return Points Won
54% (20/37)62% (24/39)
Break Points Converted
30% (3/10)43% (3/7)
Winners
4043
Unforced Errors
2214
Net Points Won
73% (8/11)78% (14/18)
Service Points Won
64% (61/96)63% (64/102)
Return Points Won
37% (38/102)36% (35/96)
Total Points Won
50% (99/198)50% (99/198)
Last 10 Balls
64
Match Points Saved
00
Service Games Won
81% (13/16)80% (12/15)
Return Games Won
20% (3/15)19% (3/16)
Total Games Won
52% (16/31)48% (15/31)

Chances of winning


Casper Ruud
32.8%
Jack Draper
67.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
33.8% 66.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.8% 66.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Casper Ruud has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)
  • Jack Draper has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casper Ruud than the current prediction. (+1%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jack Draper than the current prediction. (-1%)
  • Casper Ruud - Jack Draper Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.89
    (2.82)

    1.42
    (1.44)
    4.8%
    (5%)
    What is the prediction for Casper Ruud - Jack Draper?
  • Users Predictions: 40 users predict this event. Ruud will win (votes: 15 - 37.5%). Draper will win (votes: 25 - 62.5%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Draper: 47.5%77.5%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • AH +2.5 Games - Draper (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +2 Games - Draper (1.60) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +1.5 Sets - Draper (2.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +3 Games - Draper (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Jack Draper will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%) 🥇 Gold Tip.
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Ruud (votes: 1 - 6.3%). Draper (votes: 15 - 93.8%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.
  • Preview Facts
    • Ruud is ranked ATP: 15. Draper is ranked ATP: 6.
    • Both players have recently enjoyed a winning streak.
    • In this match, Draper is a strong favorite.
    • We predict that Draper will win today's game, with odds of 1.43.
    • Recently, the players have not faced each other.
    Latest results of Casper Ruud
    Latest results of Jack Draper
    30.04.2025 Jack Draper - Tommy Paul 2:0
    29.04.2025 Jack Draper - Matteo Berrettini Berrettini M. retired
    Draw
    Singles - Main

    1/64-finals
    1Sinner J. (1)Bye
    2Bonzi B. (Q)Droguet T. (Q)2 : 1
    3Moller E. (Q)Cina F. (WC)2 : 0
    4ByeDiallo G. (32)
    5Norrie C. (19)Bye
    6Machac T.Comesana F.2 : 1
    7Bautista-Agut R.Tirante T. A.0 : 2
    8ByePaul T. (15)
    9Rublev A. (9)Bye
    10Zhang Z. (PR)Kopriva V.0 : 2
    11Sonego L.Lajovic D. (Q)0 : 2
    12ByeRinderknech A. (22)
    13Fonseca J. (27)Bye
    14Bergs Z.Cilic M.1 : 2
    15Jodar R. (WC)De Jong J.2 : 1
    16ByeDe Minaur A. (5)
    17Shelton B. (4)Bye
    18Prizmic D. (Q)Berrettini M.2 : 0
    19Basilashvili N. (Q)Ofner S.0 : 2
    20ByeEtcheverry T. M. (25)
    21Fils A. (21)Bye
    22Buse I.Mannarino A.2 : 0
    23Brooksby J.Nava E.0 : 2
    24ByeVacherot V. (14)
    25Lehecka J. (11)Bye
    26Tabilo A.Royer V.2 : 0
    27Muller A.Struff J-L.0 : 2
    28ByeMichelsen A. (33)
    29Griekspoor T. (29)Bye
    30Dzumhur D.Bellucci M.2 : 0
    31Faria J. (Q)Hurkacz H.0 : 2
    32ByeMusetti L. (6)
    33Bublik A. (8)Bye
    34Kypson P. (LL)Tsitsipas S.1 : 2
    35Trungelliti M. (LL)Merida Aguilar D. (Q)1 : 2
    36ByeMoutet C. (26)
    37Davidovich Fokina A. (20)Bye
    38Carreno-Busta P. (WC)Fucsovics M.2 : 1
    39Munar J.Shevchenko A.2 : 0
    40ByeRuud C. (12)
    41Cerundolo F. (16)Bye
    42Hanfmann Y.Giron M.2 : 1
    43Altmaier D.Cerundolo J. M.0 : 2
    44ByeDarderi L. (18)
    45Nakashima B. (28)Bye
    46Garin C. (LL)Blockx A.1 : 2
    47Gaubas V. (Q)Baez S.2 : 0
    48ByeAuger-Aliassime F. (3)
    49Medvedev D. (7)Bye
    50Marozsan F.Quinn E.2 : 0
    51Budkov Kjaer N. (Q)Opelka R. (RET.)0 : 0
    52ByeShapovalov D. (31)
    53Tien L. (17)Bye
    54Vallejo D. (Q)Dimitrov G.2 : 0
    55Ugo Carabelli C.Monfils G. (WC)2 : 0
    56ByeCobolli F. (10)
    57Khachanov K. (13)Bye
    58Landaluce M. (WC)Walton A.0 : 2
    59Popyrin A.Damm M. (Q)0 : 2
    60ByeMensik J. (23)
    61Humbert U. (30)Bye
    62Atmane T.Kecmanovic M.2 : 0
    63Borges N.Navone M.0 : 2
    64ByeZverev A. (2)

    1/32-finals
    1Sinner J. (1)Bonzi B. (Q)2 : 1
    2Moller E. (Q)Diallo G. (RET.) (32)1 : 0
    3Norrie C. (19)Machac T.2 : 1
    4Tirante T. A.Paul T. (15)2 : 0
    5Rublev A. (9)Kopriva V.0 : 2
    6Lajovic D.Rinderknech A. (22)0 : 2
    7Fonseca J. (WO.) (27)Cilic M.
    8Jodar R.De Minaur A. (5)2 : 0
    9Shelton B. (4)Prizmic D.1 : 2
    10Ofner S.Etcheverry T. M. (25)0 : 2
    11Fils A. (21)Buse I.2 : 1
    12Nava E.Vacherot V. (14)2 : 1
    13Lehecka J. (11)Tabilo A.2 : 1
    14Struff J-L.Michelsen A. (33)0 : 2
    15Griekspoor T. (29)Dzumhur D.2 : 0
    16Hurkacz H.Musetti L. (6)0 : 2
    17Bublik A. (8)Tsitsipas S.0 : 2
    18Merida Aguilar D.Moutet C. (26)2 : 0
    19Davidovich Fokina A. (20)Carreno-Busta P.2 : 0
    20Munar J.Ruud C. (12)0 : 2
    21Cerundolo F. (16)Hanfmann Y.2 : 0
    22Cerundolo J. M.Darderi L. (18)0 : 2
    23Nakashima B. (28)Blockx A.1 : 2
    24Gaubas V.Auger-Aliassime F. (3)0 : 2
    25Medvedev D. (7)Marozsan F.2 : 1
    26Budkov Kjaer N.Shapovalov D. (31)2 : 0
    27Tien L. (17)Vallejo D.0 : 2
    28Ugo Carabelli C.Cobolli F. (10)1 : 2
    29Khachanov K. (13)Walton A.2 : 0
    30Damm M.Mensik J. (23)0 : 2
    31Humbert U. (30)Atmane T.0 : 2
    32Navone M.Zverev A. (2)1 : 2

    1/16-finals
    1Sinner J. (1)Moller E.
    2Norrie C. (19)Tirante T. A.
    3Kopriva V.Rinderknech A. (22)
    4Fonseca J. (27)Jodar R.
    5Prizmic D.Etcheverry T. M. (25)
    6Fils A. (21)Nava E.
    7Lehecka J. (11)Michelsen A. (33)
    8Griekspoor T. (29)Musetti L. (6)
    9Tsitsipas S.Merida Aguilar D.
    10Davidovich Fokina A. (20)Ruud C. (12)
    11Cerundolo F. (16)Darderi L. (18)
    12Blockx A.Auger-Aliassime F. (3)
    13Medvedev D. (7)Budkov Kjaer N.
    14Vallejo D.Cobolli F. (10)
    15Khachanov K. (13)Mensik J. (23)
    16Atmane T.Zverev A. (2)

    1/8-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4
    3TBD #5TBD #6
    4TBD #7TBD #8
    5TBD #9TBD #10
    6TBD #11TBD #12
    7TBD #13TBD #14
    8TBD #15TBD #16

    Quarter-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4
    3TBD #5TBD #6
    4TBD #7TBD #8

    Semi-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4

    Final
    1TBD #1TBD #2