Result
4:0
20/03/2026 at 16:15 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 27
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 3 |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 4.40 | 0.65 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 53% | 47% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 23 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (332/411) | 77% (277/358) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 4.40 | 0.65 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.81 | 0.28 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 23 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 12 | 6 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 15 | 3 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 30 | 9 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 20 | 18 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (332/411) | 77% (277/358) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 30% (16/53) | 45% (18/40) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 66% (66/100) | 57% (46/81) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 56% (5/9) | 17% (2/12) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 2.45 | 0.52 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 12 | 19 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 18 | 20 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 85% (11/13) | 50% (9/18) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 59 | 54 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 16 | 17 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 14 | 11 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.28 | 2.81 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.28 | -1.19 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (3 - 0)
- 4', Kaly 🟨,
- 12', 1 - 0, Rodrigo Pinho (Penalty Awarded),
- 18', Bernardo Schappo 🟨,
- 37', 2 - 0, Marcus A. ⚽,
- 39', Rocha Livramento D. ↓, Morais T. ↑,
- 39', Kaly ↓, Fonte J. ↑,
- 45+1', Robinho 🟨,
- 45+3', 3 - 0, Rodrigo Pinho ⚽, Marcus A. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 56', Cassiano ↓, Marques J. ↑,
- 57', Brito R. ↓, Mohamed I. ↑,
- 67', Rodrigo Pinho ↓, Jovane ↑,
- 67', Robinho ↓, Sola A. ↑,
- 75', Stoica I. ↓, Meireles J. ↑,
- 76', 4 - 0, Doue G. ⚽, Marcus A. (A),
- 76', Livolant J. ↓, Mendes C. ↑,
- 82', Doue G. ↓, Moustier T. ↑,
- 83', Bernardo Schappo ↓, Otavio ↑,
- 85', Perez S. 🟨,
- 85', Sola A. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Estrela da Amadora
37.9% | Draw
30.8% | Casa Pia
31.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Estrela da Amadora has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)Casa Pia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estrela da Amadora than the current prediction. (+1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (+0.5%)
Estrela da Amadora - Casa Pia Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.48 ↑
(2.36) |
3.07 ↓
(3.2) |
3.04 ↑
(3) |
5.8%
(7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Estrela da Amadora - Casa Pia?
Users Predictions:
20 users predict this event. Estrela will win (votes: 5 - 25%). Casa Pia will win (votes: 2 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 65%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 44.1% – 85.9%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 14 and 15).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Estrela won 3.
- Estrela is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Casa Pia has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Estrela may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- There will not play in Estrela: Drame I.
(Inactive)
Encada J.
(Injury)
van Hooijdonk S.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Estrela: Gbomadu M.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Casa Pia: Batista R.
(Inactive)
Kiki
(Knee Injury)
Ofori L.
(Inactive)
- In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Estrela won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:9. (average 1.4:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Estrela won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:2. (average 1.3:0.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Estrela da Amadora won against Casa Pia?
Estrela da Amadora has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Casa Pia won against Estrela da Amadora?
Casa Pia has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Estrela da Amadora - Casa Pia were as follows:
01.11.2025
Casa Pia
-
Estrela da Amadora
3:5
09.02.2025
Casa Pia
-
Estrela da Amadora
1:0
31.08.2024
Estrela da Amadora
-
Casa Pia
0:1
08.03.2024
Estrela da Amadora
-
Casa Pia
3:1
08.10.2023
Casa Pia
-
Estrela da Amadora
0:1
Latest results of Estrela da Amadora
Latest results of Casa Pia
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto ✔ | 32 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 64:15 | 49 | 85 |
| 2 | Benfica | 32 | 22 | 10 | 0 | 69:22 | 47 | 76 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 31 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 77:22 | 55 | 73 |
| 4 | Braga | 32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 60:32 | 28 | 57 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 41:29 | 12 | 52 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 46:32 | 14 | 50 |
| 7 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 38:43 | -5 | 42 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 32 | 12 | 6 | 14 | 37:47 | -10 | 42 |
| 9 | Estoril | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 52:53 | -1 | 38 |
| 10 | Alverca | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 34:50 | -16 | 38 |
| 11 | Arouca | 32 | 10 | 6 | 16 | 41:62 | -21 | 36 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 33:52 | -19 | 35 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 30:40 | -10 | 33 |
| 14 | Nacional | 32 | 8 | 7 | 17 | 35:43 | -8 | 31 |
| 15 | Estrela | 32 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 36:54 | -18 | 28 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 29:56 | -27 | 26 |
| 17 | Tondela | 32 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 24:52 | -28 | 25 |
| 18 | AFS ✔ | 32 | 2 | 11 | 19 | 24:66 | -42 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
Clinched Spots for Teams
FC Porto is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Champions League (League phase )
AFS is Relegated to Liga Portugal 2
