Result
2:0
23/02/2026 at 15:15 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 23
- Referee: Narciso A. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | ZAP |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 8 |
 Israel | Sport 3 |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.46 | 0.37 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 62% | 38% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 24 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (375/450) | 68% (179/262) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.46 | 0.37 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.33 | 0.18 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 24 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 11 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 17 | 5 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 32 | 18 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 17 | 17 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (375/450) | 68% (179/262) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 59% (27/46) | 47% (25/53) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 69% (96/140) | 49% (35/72) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 36% (9/25) | 22% (5/23) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.56 | 0.49 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 16 | 20 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 17 | 17 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 60% (9/15) | 23% (3/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 49 | 55 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 29 | 29 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 12 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.18 | 1.33 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.18 | -0.67 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 13', Sa G. 🟨,
- 23', Pedro Bondo 🟨,
- 29', Kaly 🟨,
- 31', 1 - 0, De Amorim M. ⚽, Gil Dias (A),
- 40', Sousa D. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Ofori L. ↓, Mohamed I. ↑,
- 58', Mendes C. ↓, Rocha Livramento D. ↑,
- 65', Pedro Bondo ↓, Rafa Soares ↑,
- 65', Sorriso ↓, Joujou A. ↑,
- 65', De Haas J. 🟨,
- 79', Osundina K. ↓, Morais T. ↑,
- 79', Sousa D. ↓, Perez S. ↑,
- 81', Abubakar U. ↓, Elisor S. ↑,
- 81', De Amorim M. ↓, Pena M. ↑,
- 81', 2 - 0, Joujou A. ⚽, Gil Dias (A),
- 85', Brito R. ↓, Marques J. ↑,
- 87', Van de Looi T. ↓, Santos P. ↑,
Chances of winning
Famalicão
60.2% | Draw
24% | Casa Pia
15.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Famalicão has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)Casa Pia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Famalicão than the current prediction. (+0.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (+1.4%)
Famalicão - Casa Pia Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.58 ↓
(1.62) |
3.91 ↓
(3.99) |
5.89 ↑
(5.3) |
5.9%
(5.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Famalicão - Casa Pia?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .
- O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- AH -1.5 - Casa Pia (1.47) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Famalicão will win
(20 of 25 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.32% – 95.68%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Famalicão will win (6 of 8 users predict this - 75%) 🥈 Silver Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 9 high ROI users predict this event. Famalicão (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Casa Pia (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 8 and 13).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Famalicão won 2.
- Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
- Casa Pia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Famalicão is the team to beat.
- There will not play in Famalicão: Aranda O.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Casa Pia: Batista R.
(Inactive)
Cassiano
(Yellow Cards)
Fonte J.
(Injury)
Kiki
(Knee Injury)
Larrazabal G.
(Yellow Cards)
- There are questionable in Famalicão: Pinheiro R.
(Inactive)
Rochinha
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Casa Pia: Perez S.
(Inactive)
Tchamba D.
(Injury)
- In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Famalicão won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:6. (average 1.1:0.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Famalicão won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 1.3:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Famalicão won against Casa Pia?
Famalicão has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Casa Pia won against Famalicão?
Casa Pia has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Famalicão - Casa Pia were as follows:
21.09.2025
Casa Pia
-
Famalicão
1:1
16.05.2025
Famalicão
-
Casa Pia
2:1
05.01.2025
Casa Pia
-
Famalicão
1:1
17.05.2024
Famalicão
-
Casa Pia
1:2
13.01.2024
Casa Pia
-
Famalicão
0:2
Latest results of Famalicão
Latest results of Casa Pia
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 24 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 47:8 | 39 | 65 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 24 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 62:12 | 50 | 61 |
| 3 | Benfica | 24 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 51:14 | 37 | 58 |
| 4 | Braga | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 50:23 | 27 | 45 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 35:23 | 12 | 40 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 29:21 | 8 | 36 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 30:34 | -4 | 34 |
| 8 | Estoril | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 46:42 | 4 | 33 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 28:35 | -7 | 32 |
| 10 | Alverca | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 24:39 | -15 | 27 |
| 11 | Arouca | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 32:52 | -20 | 26 |
| 12 | Estrela | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 26:41 | -15 | 24 |
| 13 | Casa Pia | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 26:44 | -18 | 23 |
| 14 | Nacional | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 28:36 | -8 | 21 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 24 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 23:44 | -21 | 21 |
| 16 | Santa Clara | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 20:31 | -11 | 19 |
| 17 | Tondela | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 19:38 | -19 | 19 |
| 18 | AFS | 24 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 18:57 | -39 | 9 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
