Result
0:0
08/02/2026 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 21
- Referee: Correia G. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.98 | 0.64 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 69% | 31% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 21 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (407/493) | 67% (152/227) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.98 | 0.64 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.29 | 0.56 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 21 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 12 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 11 | 5 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 4 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 24 | 10 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 7 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 15 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (407/493) | 67% (152/227) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 40% (19/47) | 32% (18/56) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 69% (91/131) | 58% (36/62) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 31% (11/35) | 15% (2/13) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.24 | 0.52 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 19 | 21 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 15 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 57% (8/14) | 50% (12/24) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 47 | 69 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 11 | 42 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 11 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.56 | 0.29 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.56 | 0.29 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Morais T. ↓, Marques J. ↑,
- 64', Kaly 🟨,
- 71', Livolant J. ↓, Osundina K. ↑,
- 71', Brito R. ↓, Mohamed I. ↑,
- 77', Mohamed I. 🟨,
- 80', Cassiano ↓, Mendes C. ↑,
- 83', Leo Santos 🟨,
- 84', Gabriel Veron ↓, Daniel Junior ↑,
- 84', Jose Gomes ↓, Witi ↑,
- 85', Baeza M. 🟨,
- 86', Geraldes A. 🟨,
- 89', Baeza M. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
- 90+2', Paulinho Boia ↓, Pablo Ruan ↑,
Chances of winning
Nacional
50.9% | Draw
27.5% | Casa Pia
21.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.6%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nacional's performance.Casa Pia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.1%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Casa Pia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (-13%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nacional that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (+12.5%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Casa Pia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Nacional - Casa Pia Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.88 ↓
(2.47) |
3.44 ↑
(3.37) |
4.36 ↑
(2.81) |
5.3%
(5.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Nacional - Casa Pia?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- DNB - Nacional (1.50) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.5 - Nacional (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Nacional will win
(12 of 13 users predict this - 92.31%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.83% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Nacional will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 11 high ROI users predict this event. Nacional (votes: 11 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 12 and 15).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 3.
- Nacional has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Casa Pia has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Nacional may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Nacional is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Nacional: Fernandes I.
(Injury)
Soares F.
(Injury)
Ulisses
(Injury)
- There will not play in Casa Pia: Fonte J.
(Injury)
Kaique Rocha
(Injury)
Kiki
(Knee Injury)
Sousa D.
(Yellow Cards)
- There are questionable in Nacional: Aurelio J.
(Inactive)
Vallier L.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Casa Pia: Perez S.
(Inactive)
Tchamba D.
(Injury)
- In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:11. (average 1.7:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:3. (average 1.7:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Nacional won against Casa Pia?
Nacional has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Casa Pia won against Nacional?
Casa Pia has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Nacional - Casa Pia were as follows:
30.08.2025
Casa Pia
-
Nacional
0:2
25.10.2024
Casa Pia
-
Nacional
1:0
25.11.2023
Nacional
-
Casa Pia
1:0
28.09.2023
Casa Pia
-
Nacional
2:1
09.02.2023
Casa Pia
-
Nacional
2:5
Latest results of Nacional
Latest results of Casa Pia
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 24 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 47:8 | 39 | 65 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 24 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 62:12 | 50 | 61 |
| 3 | Benfica | 24 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 51:14 | 37 | 58 |
| 4 | Braga | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 50:23 | 27 | 45 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 35:23 | 12 | 40 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 29:21 | 8 | 36 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 30:34 | -4 | 34 |
| 8 | Estoril | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 46:42 | 4 | 33 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 28:35 | -7 | 32 |
| 10 | Alverca | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 24:39 | -15 | 27 |
| 11 | Arouca | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 32:52 | -20 | 26 |
| 12 | Estrela | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 26:41 | -15 | 24 |
| 13 | Casa Pia | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 26:44 | -18 | 23 |
| 14 | Nacional | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 28:36 | -8 | 21 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 24 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 23:44 | -21 | 21 |
| 16 | Santa Clara | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 20:31 | -11 | 19 |
| 17 | Tondela | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 19:38 | -19 | 19 |
| 18 | AFS | 24 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 18:57 | -39 | 9 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
