Result
0:0
28/12/2025 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 16
- Referee: Filipe L. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | ZAP |
 Angola | Z Sports 1 |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Portugal | Sport TV2 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.38 | 1.16 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 44% | 56% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 5 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (208/285) | 76% (276/363) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.38 | 1.16 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.34 | 0.69 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 5 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 0 | 4 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 8 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 13 | 22 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 23 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (208/285) | 76% (276/363) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 42% (24/57) | 23% (13/56) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 65% (53/82) | 56% (59/105) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 15% (2/13) | 15% (4/26) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.33 | 0.53 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 18 | 27 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 23 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 50% (6/12) | 44% (4/9) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 47 | 52 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 57 | 16 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.69 | 0.34 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.69 | 0.34 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 9', Mitrovic M. 🟨,
- 30', Oukili Y. 🟨,
- 41', Maga 🟨,
- 41', Rocha Livramento D. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Maga ↓, Sousa D. ↑,
- 46', Mitrovic M. ↓, Strata T. ↑,
- 57', Camara O. ↓, Ndoye A. ↑,
- 62', Oukili Y. ↓, Miguel Sousa ↑,
- 62', Rocha Livramento D. ↓, Cassiano ↑,
- 63', Sousa D. 🟨,
- 74', Brito R. ↓, Perez S. ↑,
- 79', Miguel Sousa 🟨,
- 84', Larrazabal G. ↓, Severina X. ↑,
- 84', Livolant J. ↓, Nsona K. ↑,
- 84', Samu ↓, Blanco F. ↑,
- 90+2', Arcanjo T. ↓, Nogueira M. ↑,
Chances of winning
Casa Pia
30.3% | Draw
31.9% | Vitoria Guimarães
37.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Casa Pia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)Vitoria Guimarães has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (-0.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (+2.3%)
Casa Pia - Vitoria Guimarães Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.12 ↑
(3.11) |
2.97 ↓
(3.17) |
2.49 ↑
(2.38) |
5.9%
(5.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Casa Pia - Vitoria Guimarães?
Users Predictions:
22 users predict this event. Casa Pia will win (votes: 4 - 18.2%). Guimarães will win (votes: 13 - 59.1%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 22.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Guimarães: 38.6% – 79.6%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Casa Pia (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Guimarães (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- DC - Casa Pia (1.49) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- 1X2, 1st Half - Casa Pia (3.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Casa Pia (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Guimarães (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 15 and 8).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Casa Pia won 1.
- Casa Pia is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Guimarães's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
- There will not play in Casa Pia: Kiki
(Knee Injury)
Mohamed I.
(International duty)
Svensson M.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Guimarães: Beni
(International duty)
Gustavo
(Injury)
Mendes J. II.
(Yellow Cards)
Oliveira N.
(Red Card)
- There are questionable in Casa Pia: Tchamba D.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Guimarães: Rivas Viondi O.
(Injury)
- In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Casa Pia won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 0.6:0.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Casa Pia won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.3:0.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Casa Pia won against Vitoria Guimarães?
Casa Pia has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Vitoria Guimarães won against Casa Pia?
Vitoria Guimarães has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Casa Pia - Vitoria Guimarães were as follows:
01.03.2025
Vitoria Guimarães
-
Casa Pia
1:0
28.09.2024
Casa Pia
-
Vitoria Guimarães
1:1
24.02.2024
Vitoria Guimarães
-
Casa Pia
0:2
23.09.2023
Casa Pia
-
Vitoria Guimarães
0:0
19.02.2023
Casa Pia
-
Vitoria Guimarães
0:0
Latest results of Casa Pia
Latest results of Vitoria Guimarães
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto ✔ | 32 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 64:15 | 49 | 85 |
| 2 | Benfica | 32 | 22 | 10 | 0 | 69:22 | 47 | 76 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 31 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 77:22 | 55 | 73 |
| 4 | Braga | 32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 60:32 | 28 | 57 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 41:29 | 12 | 52 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 46:32 | 14 | 50 |
| 7 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 38:43 | -5 | 42 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 32 | 12 | 6 | 14 | 37:47 | -10 | 42 |
| 9 | Estoril | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 52:53 | -1 | 38 |
| 10 | Alverca | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 34:50 | -16 | 38 |
| 11 | Arouca | 32 | 10 | 6 | 16 | 41:62 | -21 | 36 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 33:52 | -19 | 35 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 30:40 | -10 | 33 |
| 14 | Nacional | 32 | 8 | 7 | 17 | 35:43 | -8 | 31 |
| 15 | Estrela | 32 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 36:54 | -18 | 28 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 29:56 | -27 | 26 |
| 17 | Tondela | 32 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 24:52 | -28 | 25 |
| 18 | AFS ✔ | 32 | 2 | 11 | 19 | 24:66 | -42 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
Clinched Spots for Teams
FC Porto is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Champions League (League phase )
AFS is Relegated to Liga Portugal 2
