Result
2:1
02/02/2026 at 15:45 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 20
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Albania | Tring Sport 2 |
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Bulgaria | Ring, Voyo |
 Cyprus | Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6 |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free |
 Germany | Sportdigital FUSSBALL |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 3 |
 Hungary | Sport 1 |
 Israel | Sport 4 |
 Italy | DAZN Italia |
 Kosovo | Arena Premium 4 |
 Netherlands | Ziggo Sport 3 |
 Poland | Eleven Sports 2 |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 4 |
 Slovakia | Arena sport 1 |
 Switzerland | Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
 Turkey | S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.97 | 2.02 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 31% | 69% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 6 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 0 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 69% (185/269) | 87% (494/569) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.97 | 2.02 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.58 | 1.73 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 6 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 10 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 0 | 10 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 6 | 31 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 69% (185/269) | 87% (494/569) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 26% (17/66) | 35% (11/31) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 62% (52/84) | 75% (150/199) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 29% (2/7) | 23% (9/39) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.45 | 1.90 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 6 | 24 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 40% (4/10) | 82% (9/11) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 37 | 54 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 45 | 12 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 13 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.73 | 1.58 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.73 | 0.58 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 12', 1 - 0, Larrazabal G. ⚽, Livolant J. (A),
- 40', Ofori L. 🟨,
- 45', 2 - 0, Goulart J. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Fernandes M. ↓, Costa A. ↑,
- 46', 2 - 1, Rosario P. ⚽, Costa A. (A),
- 56', Morais T. ↓, Osundina K. ↑,
- 57', Varela A. ↓, Froholdt V. ↑,
- 57', Sainz B. ↓, William Gomes ↑,
- 59', Larrazabal G. 🟨,
- 70', Pepê ↓, Pietuszewski O. ↑,
- 71', Thiago Silva ↓, Gul D. ↑,
- 79', William Gomes 🟥,
- 82', Cassiano ↓, Mendes C. ↑,
- 90+2', Costa A. 🟨,
- 90+6', Sousa D. 🟨,
- 90+7', Bednarek J. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Casa Pia
7.9% | Draw
16.4% | Porto
75.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Casa Pia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)Porto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)
Casa Pia - Porto Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
11.75 ↓
(12.45) |
5.88 ↑
(5.09) |
1.25 ↓
(1.28) |
5.3%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Casa Pia - Porto?
Users Predictions:
47 users predict this event. Porto will win (votes: 39 - 83%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 17%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Porto: 72.3% – 93.7%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 6.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- 1X2, 1st Half - draw (votes: 4 - 66.7%) .
- O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- O/U 4.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +1.75 - Casa Pia (1.71) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Porto will win (34 of 37 users predict this - 91.89%) 🥇 Gold Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 38 high ROI users predict this event. Casa Pia (votes: 1 - 2.6%). Porto (votes: 34 - 89.5%). Tie (votes: 3 - 7.9%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Casa Pia won 0.
- Casa Pia has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Porto is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Porto may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Porto is the clear favorite.
- There will not play in Casa Pia: Kaique Rocha
(Injury)
Kiki
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Porto: Perez N.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
de Jong L.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Casa Pia: Fonte J.
(Injury)
Tchamba D.
(Injury)
- In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Casa Pia won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 3:17. (average 0.4:2.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Casa Pia won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 1:6. (average 0.3:1.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Casa Pia won against Porto?
Casa Pia has won 0 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Porto won against Casa Pia?
Porto has won 6 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Casa Pia - Porto were as follows:
24.08.2025
Porto
-
Casa Pia
4:0
12.04.2025
Casa Pia
-
Porto
0:1
02.12.2024
Porto
-
Casa Pia
2:0
21.04.2024
Casa Pia
-
Porto
1:2
09.12.2023
Porto
-
Casa Pia
3:1
Latest results of Casa Pia
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 27 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 54:11 | 43 | 72 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 26 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 68:15 | 53 | 65 |
| 3 | Benfica | 27 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 58:17 | 41 | 65 |
| 4 | Braga | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 53:27 | 26 | 46 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 33:22 | 11 | 45 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 39:28 | 11 | 42 |
| 7 | Estoril | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 48:44 | 4 | 37 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 31:39 | -8 | 35 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 29:42 | -13 | 32 |
| 10 | Rio Ave | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 28:46 | -18 | 30 |
| 11 | Alverca | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 27:45 | -18 | 29 |
| 12 | Arouca | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 34:55 | -21 | 29 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 27 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 24:31 | -7 | 28 |
| 14 | Estrela | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 33:45 | -12 | 28 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 26:48 | -22 | 24 |
| 16 | Nacional | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 29:39 | -10 | 22 |
| 17 | Tondela | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 19:39 | -20 | 20 |
| 18 | AFS | 27 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 18:58 | -40 | 11 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
