Málaga vs Castellón – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Spanish LaLiga2
Football Spanish LaLiga2 Málaga - Castellón
Result
1:0
27/04/2025 at 12:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • LaLiga2 - Round 37
  • Referee: Palencia D. (Esp)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
argentinaArgentinaDirecTV Sports, Disney+
asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
brazilBrazilDisney+
chileChileDirecTV Sports, Disney+
colombiaColombiaDisney+
ecuadorEcuadorDirecTV Sports
mexicoMexicoSky Sport
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaDirecTV Sports Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
peruPeruDirecTV Sports, Disney+
south-americaSouth-americaDGO Latin America
spainSpainDAZN Espana, GolStadium, LaLiga Hypermotion, LaLiga TV Bar
uruguayUruguayDirecTV Sports, Disney+
venezuelaVenezuelaDirecTV Sports, Disney+, Inter
worldWorldDisney+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.600.96
Ball Possession
39%61%
Total shots
68
Shots on target
32
Big Chances
34
Corner Kicks
36
Passes
73% (184/252)82% (326/396)
Yellow Cards
53
Expected Goals (xG)
1.600.96
xG on target (xGOT)
1.720.57
Total shots
68
Shots on target
32
Shots off target
23
Blocked Shots
13
Shots inside the Box
56
Shots outside the Box
12
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
34
Corner Kicks
36
Touches in opposition box
1525
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
55
Free Kicks
1112
Passes
73% (184/252)82% (326/396)
Long passes
53% (31/59)45% (22/49)
Passes in final third
65% (52/80)70% (73/104)
Crosses
17% (2/12)21% (5/24)
Expected assists (xA)
0.831.06
Throw-ins
1728
Fouls
1211
Tackles
63% (15/24)59% (10/17)
Duels won
5444
Clearances
2815
Interceptions
107
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
22
xGOT faced
0.571.72
Goals prevented
0.570.72

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 23', 1 - 0, Chupe ⚽, Merino I. (A),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 46', Escobar J. ↓, Mabil A. ↑,
  • 46', Molina M. ↓, Luismi ↑,
  • 48', Chupe 🟨,
  • 62', Vertrouwd J. 🟨,
  • 65', Lobete J. ↓, Medina K. ↑,
  • 65', Chupe ↓, Dioni ↑,
  • 67', Galilea E. 🟨,
  • 69', Suero I. ↓, Markanich N. ↑,
  • 69', Sanchez R. ↓, Lottin A. ↑,
  • 72', Jimenez A. 🟨,
  • 76', Vertrouwd J. ↓, Willems J. ↑,
  • 80', Luismi 🟨,
  • 82', Chirino D. 🟨,
  • 82', Medina K. 🟨,
  • 84', Cordero A. ↓, Rodriguez R. ↑,
  • 85', Chirino D. ↓, de Miguel J. ↑,
  • 90+1', Pastor A. 🟨,
  • 90+3', Larrubia D. ↓, Sangalli L. ↑,

Highlights

https://tinyurl.com/mr2uvbka

Chances of winning


Málaga
27.7%		Draw
28.2%		Castellón
44.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
35.7% 30.8% 33.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.4% 31.4% 32.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Málaga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Málaga's form might have worsened.
  • Castellón has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Castellón's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Málaga than the current prediction. (+8.7%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Málaga, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castellón than the current prediction. (-11.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Castellón, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
    •

    Málaga - Castellón Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 3.38 ↑
    (2.62)    		 3.34 ↑
    (3.03)    		 2.15 ↓
    (2.79)    		 6.1%
    (7%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
    •
    What is the prediction for Málaga - Castellón?
  • Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Málaga will win (votes: 8 - 42.1%). Castellón will win (votes: 6 - 31.6%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 26.3%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Málaga: 19.9% – 64.3%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Castellón (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 3 - 75%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • The game will be played between two neighbours in a tournament table (ranked 17 and 16).
    • Málaga is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
    • Recent matches Castellón is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
    • Castellón could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
    • In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.
    • There will not play in Málaga: Abaida H. (Hamstring Injury) Enriquez R. (Knee Injury) Lorenzo D. (Inactive) Luismi (Injury)
    • There will not play in Castellón: Aurelio D. (Knee Injury) Gil O. (Injury) Mamah K. (Muscle Injury) Ruiz S. (Thigh Injury)
    • There are questionable in Málaga: Monte N. (Injury)
    • Last 5 head-to-head matches Málaga won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 5:5 (average 1:1).
    • Including matches at home between the teams Málaga won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:1 (average 1.5:0.5).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Málaga - Castellón were as follows:
    01.12.2024 Castellón - Málaga 2:0
    21.01.2024 Málaga - Castellón 0:1
    26.08.2023 Castellón - Málaga 2:1
    Latest results of Málaga
    21.04.2025 Eibar - Málaga 2:2 ✺
    14.04.2025 Huesca - Málaga 1:0 ✺
    06.04.2025 Málaga - Córdoba 0:1 ✺
    30.03.2025 Real Oviedo - Málaga 2:1 ✺
    22.03.2025 Málaga - Ferrol 2:0 ✺
    Latest results of Castellón
    18.04.2025 Castellón - Almería 4:1 ✺
    13.04.2025 Racing Santander - Castellón 1:1 ✺
    04.04.2025 Castellón - Albacete Balompié 2:2 ✺
    29.03.2025 Cartagena - Castellón 2:2 ✺
    23.03.2025 Levante - Castellón 3:2 ✺
    Spanish LaLiga2 Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Gijon00000:000
    2Cordoba00000:000
    3Las Palmas00000:000
    4Castellon00000:000
    5Albacete00000:000
    6Eibar00000:000
    7Malaga00000:000
    8Cadiz CF00000:000
    9Burgos CF00000:000
    10Huesca00000:000
    11Racing Santander00000:000
    12Almeria00000:000
    13Dep. La Coruna00000:000
    14Valladolid00000:000
    15Zaragoza00000:000
    16Real Sociedad B00000:000
    17Cultural Leonesa00000:000
    18Leganes00000:000
    19Ceuta00000:000
    20Granada CF00000:000
    21Mirandes00000:000
    22Andorra00000:000

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