Result
10:13
24/01/2026 at 10:35 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Top 14 - Round 15
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 France | CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 2, Canal+ Live 3 |
 United-kingdom | FloSports app |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Tries |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Conversion goals |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Conversion goal attempts |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Penalty goals |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Penalty goal attempts |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goals % |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Dropped goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Total runs |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Metres run with ball |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (10 - 10)
- 4', Vargas A. (Try),
- 5', Herve E. (Conversion Goal),
- 12', Martin L. (Try),
- 13', Segonds J. (Conversion Goal),
- 31', Segonds J. (Penalty Goal),
- 35', Herve E. (Penalty Goal),
- 2nd Half (0 - 3)
- 68', Fernandez J. (Penalty Goal),
Chances of winning
Aviron Bayonnais
72.4% | Draw
3.4% | Castres
24.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Aviron Bayonnais has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Aviron Bayonnais's form might have worsened.Castres has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Castres's recent form is better than expected.
Aviron Bayonnais - Castres Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.29 ↑
(1.21) |
26.09 ↑
(24.2) |
3.78 ↓
(5.06) |
8%
(6.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 50.50
- The most likely Handicap: 1 (-10)
What is the prediction for Aviron Bayonnais - Castres?
Users Predictions:
1 users predict this event. Bayonne will win (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 30:20.
Preview Facts
- Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 9 and 10).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bayonne won 1.
- Bayonne is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Castres has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Castres may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Bayonne is considered a favorite.
- In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Bayonne won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 12 matches, and goals 361:522. (average 19:27.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Bayonne won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 219:149. (average 24.3:16.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Aviron Bayonnais won against Castres?
Aviron Bayonnais has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Castres won against Aviron Bayonnais?
Castres has won 5 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Aviron Bayonnais - Castres were as follows:
20.09.2025
Castres
-
Aviron Bayonnais
48:17
31.05.2025
Castres
-
Aviron Bayonnais
33:3
28.12.2024
Aviron Bayonnais
-
Castres
33:12
08.06.2024
Aviron Bayonnais
-
Castres
17:28
02.09.2023
Castres
-
Aviron Bayonnais
37:0
Latest results of Aviron Bayonnais
Latest results of Castres
French Top 14 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Stade Toulousain | 18 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 730:365 | 67 |
| 2 | Section Paloise | 18 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 558:477 | 55 |
| 3 | Montpellier | 18 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 561:390 | 53 |
| 4 | Clermont | 18 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 596:467 | 51 |
| 5 | Bordeaux Begles | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 591:483 | 50 |
| 6 | Stade Francais Paris | 18 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 513:448 | 49 |
| 7 | RC Toulonnais | 18 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 465:536 | 45 |
| 8 | Racing 92 | 18 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 514:558 | 45 |
| 9 | Castres Olympique | 18 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 431:501 | 42 |
| 10 | Stade Rochelais | 18 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 551:487 | 41 |
| 11 | Lyon | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 521:502 | 39 |
| 12 | Aviron Bayonnais | 18 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 467:595 | 36 |
| 13 | USA Perpignan | 18 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 344:511 | 18 |
| 14 | Montauban | 18 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 338:860 | 7 |
Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Top 14 (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Pro D2
