Result
2:5
19/07/2025 at 17:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie B Superbet - Round 17
- Referee: de Lima M. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
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 Brazil | Disney+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.41 | 1.58 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 66% | 34% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 20 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (408/481) | 69% (178/257) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.41 | 1.58 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.68 | 3.88 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 20 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 9 | 5 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 8 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 13 | 6 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 24 | 12 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 4 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 16 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (408/481) | 69% (178/257) |
| Long passes |
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| 45% (19/42) | 35% (19/55) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 74% (119/160) | 53% (28/53) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 23% (9/40) | 33% (5/15) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.36 | 0.24 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 26 | 11 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 16 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 70% (7/10) | 64% (7/11) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 48 | 51 |
| Clearances |
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| 17 | 44 |
| Interceptions |
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| 7 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 3.88 | 1.68 |
| Goals prevented |
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| -1.12 | -0.32 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 3)
- 25', Mauricio Antonio 🟨,
- 26', 1 - 0, Josue ⚽,
- 28', 1 - 1, Mauricio Garcez ⚽,
- 31', 1 - 2, Diogo Oliveira ⚽, Reverson (A),
- 33', Iury Castilho ↓, Clayson ↑,
- 44', 1 - 3, Diogo Oliveira ⚽, Reverson (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 2)
- 46', Zeca ↓, Alex Silva ↑,
- 47', Lucas Ronier 🟨,
- 57', 2 - 3, Josue (Pen),
- 67', Gomez S. ↓, de Pena C. ↑,
- 69', 2 - 4, Marlon Douglas (Pen),
- 75', Filipe Machado ↓, Gustavo Coutinho ↑,
- 75', Lucas Ronier ↓, Everaldo ↑,
- 76', Denner ↓, Matheus Vargas ↑,
- 76', Marlon Douglas ↓, Vinicius Faria ↑,
- 77', Everaldo 🟨,
- 79', Clayson 🟨,
- 80', Anderson Leite ↓, Ramon Martinez ↑,
- 85', Diogo Oliveira ↓, Benitez J. ↑,
- 85', Leandro Vilela ↓, Ronaldo Henrique ↑,
- 87', 2 - 5, Mauricio Garcez ⚽, Ronaldo Henrique (A),
- 90+4', Vinicius Faria 🟨,
Chances of winning
Coritiba
59.6% | Draw
26% | Paysandu
14.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Coritiba has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)Paysandu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Coritiba than the current prediction. (+0.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paysandu than the current prediction. (+1.7%)
Coritiba - Paysandu Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.58 ↓
(1.66) |
3.56 ↑
(3.51) |
6.44 ↑
(5.5) |
6.8%
(6.9%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Coritiba - Paysandu?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Coritiba (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Paysandu (votes: 1 - 33.3%).
Users Predictions:
Coritiba will win
(12 of 15 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.76% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Coritiba won 1.
- Coritiba has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Paysandu is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Paysandu may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Coritiba is the team to beat.
- There will not play in Coritiba: Alex Silva
(Inactive)
Maicon
(Yellow Cards)
- There will not play in Paysandu: Dudu Vieira
(Inactive)
Edinho
(Knee Injury)
Rossi
(Yellow Cards)
Thalisson
(Yellow Cards)
- There are questionable in Coritiba: Rodrigo Moledo
(Knock)
- There are questionable in Paysandu: Delvalle P.
(Ankle Injury)
Matheus Vargas
(Inactive)
Quintana Y.
(Injury)
- We predict that Coritiba will win today's game, with odds of 1.62.
- In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Coritiba won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:6. (average 1.3:1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Coritiba won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 1.7:0.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Coritiba won against Paysandu?
Coritiba has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Paysandu won against Coritiba?
Paysandu has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Coritiba - Paysandu were as follows:
23.10.2024
Paysandu
-
Coritiba
2:1
07.07.2024
Coritiba
-
Paysandu
1:1
Latest results of Coritiba
Latest results of Paysandu
Brazilian Serie B Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Coritiba | 25 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 28:16 | 12 | 46 |
| 2 | Goias | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 32:25 | 7 | 44 |
| 3 | Criciuma | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 33:21 | 12 | 42 |
| 4 | Chapecoense-SC | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 36:24 | 12 | 41 |
| 5 | Remo | 25 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 27:22 | 5 | 38 |
| 6 | Cuiaba | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 30:29 | 1 | 37 |
| 7 | Novorizontino | 25 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 27:24 | 3 | 37 |
| 8 | Athletico-PR | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 34:34 | 0 | 36 |
| 9 | Avai | 25 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 32:26 | 6 | 36 |
| 10 | Vila Nova FC | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 25:25 | 0 | 35 |
| 11 | CRB | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 26:23 | 3 | 34 |
| 12 | Operario-PR | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 27:24 | 3 | 34 |
| 13 | Atletico GO | 25 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 27:27 | 0 | 32 |
| 14 | Ferroviaria | 25 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 27:30 | -3 | 31 |
| 15 | Athletic Club | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 27:34 | -7 | 29 |
| 16 | Botafogo SP | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 21:36 | -15 | 28 |
| 17 | America MG | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 26:33 | -7 | 26 |
| 18 | Volta Redonda | 25 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 16:27 | -11 | 26 |
| 19 | Amazonas | 25 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 26:37 | -11 | 24 |
| 20 | Paysandu PA | 25 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 21:31 | -10 | 21 |
Promotion ~ Serie A Betano
Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )
