Result
2:0
28/09/2025 at 23:05 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Apertura - Round 11
- Referee: Camacho Peregrina J. (Mex)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Mexico | Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV, Fox Sports, Tubi TV |
 South-america | ViX Latin America |
 Usa | TUDN App, TUDN |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.20 | 0.77 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 62% | 38% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (437/501) | 75% (232/308) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.20 | 0.77 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.55 | 0.08 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 9 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 7 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 24 | 16 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (437/501) | 75% (232/308) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 65% (35/54) | 29% (12/41) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 70% (67/96) | 59% (44/75) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 33% (9/27) | 33% (5/15) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.49 | 0.28 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 19 | 27 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 9 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 56% (10/18) | 82% (9/11) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 51 | 41 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 24 | 22 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.08 | 1.55 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.08 | -0.45 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 5', Rodarte J. 🟥,
- 12', Corona J. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
- 19', Piovi G. 🟨,
- 28', Vega A. 🟨,
- 38', Blanco D. 🟨,
- 45+4', 1 - 0, Blanco D. ⚽, Castaneda K. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Marquez J. ↓, Orozco J. ↑,
- 46', Nicholson S. ↓, El Ghezouani M. ↑,
- 46', Preciado A. ↓, Arciga R. ↑,
- 55', Gomez A. 🟨,
- 62', Vega A. ↓, Ortiz Orozco P. N. ↑,
- 62', Gomez A. ↓, Bilbao U. ↑,
- 72', 2 - 0, El Ghezouani M. ⚽, Inzunza R. (A),
- 73', Rivero I. ↓, Bogusz M. ↑,
- 79', Paradela J. ↓, Rodriguez C. ↑,
- 80', Fernandez G. ↓, Sepulveda A. ↑,
- 80', Piovi G. ↓, Campos O. ↑,
Chances of winning
Tijuana
35% | Draw
26.4% | Cruz Azul
38.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Tijuana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.3%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tijuana's performance.Cruz Azul has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cruz Azul might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tijuana than the current prediction. (-13.2%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tijuana that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cruz Azul than the current prediction. (+15.5%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cruz Azul could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Tijuana - Cruz Azul Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.79 ↓
(4.23) |
3.82 ↑
(3.82) |
2.73 ↑
(1.69) |
-1.3%
(9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
What is the prediction for Tijuana - Cruz Azul?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 2 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- O/U 3 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- O/U 4 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- O/U 1.5, 2nd Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- O/U 2, 2nd Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- AH +1 - Tijuana (1.41) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Cruz Azul will win
(9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Cruz Azul will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Tijuana (votes: 2 - 40%). Cruz Azul (votes: 3 - 60%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tijuana won 1.
- Recent performances by Tijuana have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Cruz Azul is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Cruz Azul may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Cruz Azul might have a minor edge in this game.
- There will not play in Tijuana: Mora G.
(International duty)
- There will not play in Cruz Azul: Levy M.
(International duty)
Montano A.
(Knee Injury)
Morales A.
(Inactive)
Ochoa E.
(Inactive)
Romero L.
(Red Card)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Tijuana won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 20:31. (average 1:1.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Tijuana won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 15:15. (average 1.4:1.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Tijuana won against Cruz Azul?
Tijuana has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Cruz Azul won against Tijuana?
Cruz Azul has won 4 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Tijuana - Cruz Azul were as follows:
31.01.2025
Tijuana
-
Cruz Azul
2:3
30.11.2024
Cruz Azul
-
Tijuana
3:0
27.11.2024
Tijuana
-
Cruz Azul
3:0
16.07.2024
Cruz Azul
-
Tijuana
3:0
30.01.2024
Cruz Azul
-
Tijuana
1:0
Latest results of Tijuana
Latest results of Cruz Azul
Mexican Liga MX Table
Clausura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 17:9 | 8 | 22 |
| 2 | Toluca | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 14:4 | 10 | 21 |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12:8 | 4 | 18 |
| 4 | Pachuca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 11:7 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | UNAM Pumas | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 17:10 | 7 | 16 |
| 6 | Tigres UANL | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 15:9 | 6 | 13 |
| 7 | Atlas | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10:12 | -2 | 13 |
| 8 | Club America | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8:7 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Atl. San Luis | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 16:15 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10:9 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | Club Leon | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9:11 | -2 | 10 |
| 12 | Club Tijuana | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 7:7 | 0 | 9 |
| 13 | Necaxa | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 11:15 | -4 | 9 |
| 14 | Puebla | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5:10 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Juarez | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11:13 | -2 | 7 |
| 16 | Mazatlan FC | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9:18 | -9 | 7 |
| 17 | Queretaro | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7:10 | -3 | 6 |
| 18 | Santos Laguna | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 10:25 | -15 | 2 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
