Cruz Azul vs Toluca – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Mexican Liga MX Cruz Azul - Toluca
Result
1:0
23/08/2025 at 23:05 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Liga MX - Apertura - Round 6
  • Referee: Ramos C. A. (Mex)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
mexicoMexicoAmazon Prime Video, Canal 5, TUDN, VIX+, ViX Premium
south-americaSouth-americaViX Latin America
usaUsaNBC Universo, TUDN App, TUDN, Univision
worldWorldVIX App

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.970.36
Ball Possession
54%46%
Total shots
238
Shots on target
71
Big Chances
20
Corner Kicks
74
Passes
82% (307/376)76% (233/308)
Yellow Cards
33
Expected Goals (xG)
0.970.36
xG on target (xGOT)
0.810.02
Total shots
238
Shots on target
71
Shots off target
145
Blocked Shots
22
Shots inside the Box
94
Shots outside the Box
144
Hit the Woodwork
10
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
20
Corner Kicks
74
Touches in opposition box
248
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
32
Free Kicks
1316
Passes
82% (307/376)76% (233/308)
Long passes
50% (29/58)51% (28/55)
Passes in final third
66% (78/118)60% (39/65)
Crosses
32% (7/22)22% (4/18)
Expected assists (xA)
0.830.40
Throw-ins
1736
Fouls
1614
Tackles
46% (13/28)30% (3/10)
Duels won
6145
Clearances
1822
Interceptions
146
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
16
xGOT faced
0.020.81
Goals prevented
0.02-0.19

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 46', Herrera H. , Romero F. ,
  • 56', Piovi G. 🟨,
  • 62', Morales R. , Paulinho ,
  • 64', Paradela J. , Faravelli L. ,
  • 66', Rodriguez C. 🟨,
  • 73', Angulo J. , Castro N. ,
  • 73', Vega A. , Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ,
  • 74', Sepulveda A. , Fernandez G. ,
  • 74', Rodriguez C. , Romero L. ,
  • 77', Dominguez Chonteco J. P. 🟨,
  • 77', Rotondi C. 🟨,
  • 77', Barbosa D. 🟨,
  • 78', 1 - 0, Romero L. , Orozco J. (A),
  • 83', Barbosa D. , Virgen O. ,
  • 87', Rivero I. , Levy M. ,
  • 90+2', Castro N. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Cruz Azul
46.8%
Draw
25.7%
Toluca
27.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
46.6% 25.7% 27.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.5% 24.2% 26.1%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Cruz Azul has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)
  • Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cruz Azul than the current prediction. (+2.7%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-1.5%)
  • Cruz Azul - Toluca Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2
    (2.01)
    3.66
    (3.65)
    3.44
    (3.38)
    6.5%
    (6.8%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
  • What is the prediction for Cruz Azul - Toluca?
  • Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Cruz Azul will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Toluca (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cruz Azul won 1.
    • Right now, both teams are showing solid form.
    • Toluca may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Recently, Toluca has had a series of home games.
    • Cruz Azul could have a small edge in this match.
    • There will not play in Cruz Azul: Montano A. (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Toluca: Helinho (Injury) Luan (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Toluca: Castro H. (Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cruz Azul won 7 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 31:26. (average 1.6:1.3).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Cruz Azul won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:10. (average 1.6:1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Cruz Azul - Toluca were as follows:
    19.04.2025 Toluca - Cruz Azul 2:2
    20.07.2024 Cruz Azul - Toluca 1:1
    27.04.2024 Toluca - Cruz Azul 0:1
    08.07.2023 Cruz Azul - Toluca 0:2
    12.02.2023 Toluca - Cruz Azul 3:1
    Latest results of Cruz Azul
    Latest results of Toluca
    20.08.2025 Toluca - Orlando City 0:1
    16.08.2025 Toluca - UNAM 1:1
    11.08.2025 Juárez - Toluca 0:2
    05.08.2025 Toluca - New York City 2:1
    01.08.2025 Toluca - CF Montréal 2:1
    Mexican Liga MX Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Monterrey760117:9818
    2Club America752015:6917
    3Cruz Azul752015:8717
    4Tigres UANL641116:8813
    5Toluca741216:10613
    6Pachuca741211:7413
    7Club Tijuana733113:9412
    8Juarez73227:7011
    9Club Leon73138:9-110
    10UNAM Pumas72327:8-19
    11Santos Laguna72059:11-26
    12Mazatlan FC71338:10-26
    13Atl. San Luis720510:13-36
    14Atlas712412:19-75
    15Necaxa71246:13-75
    16Guadalajara Chivas61149:12-34
    17Queretaro71157:15-84
    18Puebla71156:18-124

          Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
          Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )