Result
1:0
23/08/2025 at 23:05 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Apertura - Round 6
- Referee: Ramos C. A. (Mex)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Mexico | Amazon Prime Video, Canal 5, TUDN, VIX+, ViX Premium |
 South-america | ViX Latin America |
 Usa | NBC Universo, TUDN App, TUDN, Univision |
 World | VIX App |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.97 | 0.36 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 54% | 46% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 23 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (307/376) | 76% (233/308) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.97 | 0.36 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.81 | 0.02 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 23 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 14 | 5 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 14 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 24 | 8 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 16 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (307/376) | 76% (233/308) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 50% (29/58) | 51% (28/55) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 66% (78/118) | 60% (39/65) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 32% (7/22) | 22% (4/18) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.83 | 0.40 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 17 | 36 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 16 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 46% (13/28) | 30% (3/10) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 61 | 45 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 18 | 22 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 14 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 6 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.02 | 0.81 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.02 | -0.19 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Herrera H. ↓, Romero F. ↑,
- 56', Piovi G. 🟨,
- 62', Morales R. ↓, Paulinho ↑,
- 64', Paradela J. ↓, Faravelli L. ↑,
- 66', Rodriguez C. 🟨,
- 73', Angulo J. ↓, Castro N. ↑,
- 73', Vega A. ↓, Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ↑,
- 74', Sepulveda A. ↓, Fernandez G. ↑,
- 74', Rodriguez C. ↓, Romero L. ↑,
- 77', Dominguez Chonteco J. P. 🟨,
- 77', Rotondi C. 🟨,
- 77', Barbosa D. 🟨,
- 78', 1 - 0, Romero L. ⚽, Orozco J. (A),
- 83', Barbosa D. ↓, Virgen O. ↑,
- 87', Rivero I. ↓, Levy M. ↑,
- 90+2', Castro N. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Cruz Azul
46.8% | Draw
25.7% | Toluca
27.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Cruz Azul has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cruz Azul than the current prediction. (+2.7%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-1.5%)
Cruz Azul - Toluca Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2 ↓
(2.01) |
3.66 ↑
(3.65) |
3.44 ↑
(3.38) |
6.5%
(6.8%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Cruz Azul - Toluca?
Users Predictions:
6 users predict this event. Cruz Azul will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%). High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Toluca (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cruz Azul won 1.
- Right now, both teams are showing solid form.
- Toluca may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Toluca has had a series of home games.
- Cruz Azul could have a small edge in this match.
- There will not play in Cruz Azul: Montano A.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Toluca: Helinho
(Injury)
Luan
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Toluca: Castro H.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cruz Azul won 7 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 31:26. (average 1.6:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Cruz Azul won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:10. (average 1.6:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Cruz Azul won against Toluca?
Cruz Azul has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against Cruz Azul?
Toluca has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Cruz Azul - Toluca were as follows:
19.04.2025
Toluca
-
Cruz Azul
2:2
20.07.2024
Cruz Azul
-
Toluca
1:1
27.04.2024
Toluca
-
Cruz Azul
0:1
08.07.2023
Cruz Azul
-
Toluca
0:2
12.02.2023
Toluca
-
Cruz Azul
3:1
Latest results of Cruz Azul
Mexican Liga MX Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Toluca | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 31:14 | 17 | 25 |
| 2 | Monterrey | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 23:17 | 6 | 25 |
| 3 | Club America | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 23:11 | 12 | 24 |
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 21:12 | 9 | 24 |
| 5 | Tigres UANL | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 19:9 | 10 | 19 |
| 6 | Juarez | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 15:12 | 3 | 18 |
| 7 | Pachuca | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 15:13 | 2 | 17 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 19:11 | 8 | 16 |
| 9 | Guadalajara Chivas | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 16:17 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | UNAM Pumas | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 14:17 | -3 | 13 |
| 11 | Club Leon | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10:18 | -8 | 12 |
| 12 | Atl. San Luis | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 16:18 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Santos Laguna | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 13:18 | -5 | 10 |
| 14 | Atlas | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 18:26 | -8 | 10 |
| 15 | Necaxa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11:20 | -9 | 9 |
| 16 | Mazatlan FC | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 13:20 | -7 | 8 |
| 17 | Queretaro | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11:18 | -7 | 8 |
| 18 | Puebla | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 9:26 | -17 | 5 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )
