Toluca vs Cruz Azul – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Mexican Liga MX Toluca - Cruz Azul
Result
2:2
19/04/2025 at 21:05 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Liga MX - Clausura - Round 17
  • Where to Watch on TV:
mexicoMexicoCanal 5, TUDN, VIX+, ViX Premium
south-americaSouth-americaViX Latin America
usaUsaTUDN, Univision

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.820.87
Ball Possession
59%41%
Total shots
1414
Shots on target
55
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
36
Passes
86% (435/505)81% (286/352)
Yellow Cards
23
Expected Goals (xG)
0.820.87
xG on target (xGOT)
1.301.34
Total shots
1414
Shots on target
55
Shots off target
45
Blocked Shots
54
Shots inside the Box
96
Shots outside the Box
58
Hit the Woodwork
11
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
36
Touches in opposition box
259
Offsides
23
Free Kicks
1812
Passes
86% (435/505)81% (286/352)
Long passes
65% (44/68)45% (28/62)
Passes in final third
68% (92/136)60% (53/89)
Crosses
44% (8/18)0% (0/11)
Expected assists (xA)
1.380.57
Fouls
1218
Tackles
75% (12/16)77% (10/13)
Duels won
5039
Clearances Total
1312
Interceptions
108
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
33
xGOT faced
1.341.30
Goals prevented
-0.66-0.70

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 2)
  • 2', 0 - 1, Fernandez G. , Rotondi C. (A),
  • 30', 1 - 1, Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ,
  • 33', Ditta W. 🟨,
  • 37', Rotondi C. 🟨,
  • 42', del Villar E. 🟨,
  • 43', 2 - 1, Gallardo J. , Angulo J. (A),
  • 45+3', 2 - 2, Rotondi C. , Montano A. (A),
  • 45+4', Herrera H. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 55', Herrera H. , Romero F. ,
  • 55', del Villar E. , Barbosa D. ,
  • 62', Gutierrez Torres A. H. , Rodriguez C. ,
  • 62', Romero L. , Morales A. ,
  • 64', Faravelli L. 🟨,
  • 77', Dominguez Chonteco J. P. , Helinho ,
  • 77', Fernandez G. , Giakoumakis G. ,
  • 78', Montano A. , Bogusz M. ,
  • 83', Angulo J. , Morales R. ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Toluca
43.3%
Draw
27.7%
Cruz Azul
29%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
53.9% 26.7% 19.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.2% 25.6% 18.6%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Toluca's form might have worsened.
  • Cruz Azul has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Cruz Azul's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (+12.9%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Toluca, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cruz Azul than the current prediction. (-10.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cruz Azul, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Toluca - Cruz Azul Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.18
    (1.74)
    3.4
    (3.52)
    3.25
    (4.86)
    6.1%
    (6.3%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
  • What is the prediction for Toluca - Cruz Azul?
  • Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Toluca will win (votes: 4 - 23.5%). Cruz Azul will win (votes: 13 - 76.5%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Cruz Azul: 56.3%96.7%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Cruz Azul will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
    • Toluca is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
    • Cruz Azul is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
    • Last 5 head-to-head matches Toluca won 2.
    • Toluca in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).
    • Cruz Azul is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
    • Cruz Azul could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
    • Toluca will have a small advantage in this match.
    • There will not play in Toluca: Briseno A. (Inactive)
    • There will not play in Cruz Azul: Campos O. (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Cruz Azul: Levy M. (Knee Injury) Piovi G. (Injury)
    • Last 20 head-to-head matches Toluca won 5 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 24:31 (average 1.2:1.6).
    • Including matches at home between the teams Toluca won 3 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 14:15 (average 1.4:1.5).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Toluca - Cruz Azul were as follows:
    20.07.2024 Cruz Azul - Toluca 1:1
    27.04.2024 Toluca - Cruz Azul 0:1
    08.07.2023 Cruz Azul - Toluca 0:2
    12.02.2023 Toluca - Cruz Azul 3:1
    22.12.2022 Toluca - Cruz Azul 1:1
    Latest results of Toluca
    12.04.2025 Atlas - Toluca 2:3
    06.04.2025 Toluca - Santos Laguna 2:1
    29.03.2025 Toluca - Pachuca 3:2
    14.03.2025 Puebla - Toluca 0:3
    Latest results of Cruz Azul
    15.04.2025 Cruz Azul - Club León 2:1
    12.04.2025 Club América - Cruz Azul 0:0
    08.04.2025 Cruz Azul - Club América 2:1
    05.04.2025 Cruz Azul - UNAM 3:2
    01.04.2025 Club América - Cruz Azul 0:0
    Mexican Liga MX Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Toluca22007:346
    2Pachuca22006:246
    3Club America21104:224
    4Atlas21106:514
    5Mazatlan FC21102:114
    6Santos Laguna21015:413
    7Tigres UANL11001:013
    8Necaxa21014:403
    9Atl. San Luis21011:103
    10Club Leon21011:103
    11Club Tijuana21012:3-13
    12Monterrey21011:3-23
    13Cruz Azul20203:302
    14Juarez20111:2-11
    15Guadalajara Chivas10010:1-10
    16Puebla20023:5-20
    17Queretaro20021:4-30
    18UNAM Pumas20022:6-40

          Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
          Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )