Result
1:1
07/02/2026 at 18:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Clausura - Round 5
- Referee: Santander Aguirre L. E. (Mex)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Mexico | Azteca 7, Azteca Deportes, FOX One, Fox Sports, VIX+, ViX Premium |
 South-america | ViX Latin America |
 Usa | TUDN App, TUDN, Univision |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.20 | 0.78 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 55% | 45% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (347/422) | 76% (255/336) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.20 | 0.78 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.74 | 0.95 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 5 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 18 | 9 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 15 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (347/422) | 76% (255/336) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 49% (34/69) | 34% (17/50) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 71% (70/98) | 66% (79/120) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 50% (6/12) | 11% (2/18) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.42 | 0.33 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 20 | 30 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 15 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 56% (9/16) | 50% (5/10) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 44 | 36 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 23 | 14 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.95 | 1.74 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.05 | 0.74 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 41', 1 - 0, Paulinho ⚽, Gallardo J. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Campos O. ↓, Rodarte J. ↑,
- 53', Castro N. ↓, Perez P. ↑,
- 64', Levy M. ↓, Ebere C. ↑,
- 73', Rodriguez C. ↓, Romero L. ↑,
- 73', Marquez J. ↓, Morales A. ↑,
- 75', Angulo J. ↓, Cordova S. ↑,
- 75', Simon S. ↓, Barbosa D. ↑,
- 76', Romero L. 🟨,
- 77', 1 - 1, Paradela J. ⚽,
- 82', Paradela J. ↓, Garcia A. ↑,
- 88', Romero F. ↓, Rossi F. ↑,
Chances of winning
Toluca
50.1% | Draw
26.6% | Cruz Azul
23.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)Cruz Azul has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-1.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cruz Azul than the current prediction. (+1%)
Toluca - Cruz Azul Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.88 ↓
(1.95) |
3.51 ↑
(3.46) |
4.02 ↑
(3.91) |
6.7%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Toluca - Cruz Azul?
Users Predictions:
4 users predict this event. Toluca will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Cruz Azul will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%). High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Toluca (votes: 2 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- DC - Cruz Azul (1.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.5 - Cruz Azul (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Toluca (votes: 2 - 50%). Cruz Azul (votes: 2 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 1.
- Now, both teams are in good form.
- Cruz Azul may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Toluca is a strong favorite.
- There will not play in Toluca: Vega A.
(Injury)
- There will not play in Cruz Azul: Fernandez G.
(Red Card)
Mier K.
(Injury)
Orozco J.
(Ankle Injury)
- There are questionable in Toluca: Helinho
(Muscle Injury)
- We predict that Toluca will win today's game, with odds of 1.77.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 5 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 26:32. (average 1.3:1.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Toluca won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:15. (average 1.6:1.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against Cruz Azul?
Toluca has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Cruz Azul won against Toluca?
Cruz Azul has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Toluca - Cruz Azul were as follows:
23.08.2025
Cruz Azul
-
Toluca
1:0
19.04.2025
Toluca
-
Cruz Azul
2:2
20.07.2024
Cruz Azul
-
Toluca
1:1
27.04.2024
Toluca
-
Cruz Azul
0:1
08.07.2023
Cruz Azul
-
Toluca
0:2
Latest results of Cruz Azul
Mexican Liga MX Table
Clausura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Guadalajara Chivas | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 12:6 | 6 | 18 |
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 13:8 | 5 | 16 |
| 3 | UNAM Pumas | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 14:6 | 8 | 15 |
| 4 | Toluca | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 9:2 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Pachuca | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 9:5 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Atlas | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9:9 | 0 | 13 |
| 7 | Club America | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7:3 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Tigres UANL | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11:8 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Monterrey | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10:7 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | Necaxa | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9:11 | -2 | 9 |
| 11 | Club Tijuana | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 6:6 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Atl. San Luis | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 12:13 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Club Leon | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7:10 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | Queretaro | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5:8 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | Puebla | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4:10 | -6 | 5 |
| 16 | Juarez | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8:12 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Mazatlan FC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7:14 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Santos Laguna | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7:21 | -14 | 1 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
