Result
2:2
19/04/2025 at 21:05 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Clausura - Round 17
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Mexico | Canal 5, TUDN, VIX+, ViX Premium |
 South-america | ViX Latin America |
 Usa | TUDN, Univision |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.82 | 0.87 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 59% | 41% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (435/505) | 81% (286/352) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.82 | 0.87 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.30 | 1.34 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 6 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 8 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 25 | 9 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 18 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (435/505) | 81% (286/352) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 65% (44/68) | 45% (28/62) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 68% (92/136) | 60% (53/89) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 44% (8/18) | 0% (0/11) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.38 | 0.57 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 18 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 75% (12/16) | 77% (10/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 50 | 39 |
| Clearances Total |
|---|
| 13 | 12 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.34 | 1.30 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.66 | -0.70 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 2)
- 2', 0 - 1, Fernandez G. ⚽, Rotondi C. (A),
- 30', 1 - 1, Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ⚽,
- 33', Ditta W. 🟨,
- 37', Rotondi C. 🟨,
- 42', del Villar E. 🟨,
- 43', 2 - 1, Gallardo J. ⚽, Angulo J. (A),
- 45+3', 2 - 2, Rotondi C. ⚽, Montano A. (A),
- 45+4', Herrera H. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 55', Herrera H. ↓, Romero F. ↑,
- 55', del Villar E. ↓, Barbosa D. ↑,
- 62', Gutierrez Torres A. H. ↓, Rodriguez C. ↑,
- 62', Romero L. ↓, Morales A. ↑,
- 64', Faravelli L. 🟨,
- 77', Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ↓, Helinho ↑,
- 77', Fernandez G. ↓, Giakoumakis G. ↑,
- 78', Montano A. ↓, Bogusz M. ↑,
- 83', Angulo J. ↓, Morales R. ↑,
Chances of winning
Toluca
43.3% | Draw
27.7% | Cruz Azul
29% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.6%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Toluca's form might have worsened.Cruz Azul has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.6%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Cruz Azul's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (+12.9%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Toluca, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cruz Azul than the current prediction. (-10.4%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cruz Azul, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Toluca - Cruz Azul Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.18 ↑
(1.74) |
3.4 ↓
(3.52) |
3.25 ↓
(4.86) |
6.1%
(6.3%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Toluca - Cruz Azul?
Users Predictions:
17 users predict this event. Toluca will win (votes: 4 - 23.5%). Cruz Azul will win (votes: 13 - 76.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cruz Azul: 56.3% – 96.7%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Cruz Azul will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- Toluca is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
- Cruz Azul is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
- Last 5 head-to-head matches Toluca won 2.
- Toluca in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).
- Cruz Azul is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
- Cruz Azul could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
- Toluca will have a small advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Toluca: Briseno A.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Cruz Azul: Campos O.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Cruz Azul: Levy M.
(Knee Injury)
Piovi G.
(Injury)
- Last 20 head-to-head matches Toluca won 5 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 24:31 (average 1.2:1.6).
- Including matches at home between the teams Toluca won 3 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 14:15 (average 1.4:1.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against Cruz Azul?
Toluca has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Cruz Azul won against Toluca?
Cruz Azul has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Toluca - Cruz Azul were as follows:
20.07.2024
Cruz Azul
-
Toluca
1:1
27.04.2024
Toluca
-
Cruz Azul
0:1
08.07.2023
Cruz Azul
-
Toluca
0:2
12.02.2023
Toluca
-
Cruz Azul
3:1
22.12.2022
Toluca
-
Cruz Azul
1:1
Latest results of Cruz Azul
Mexican Liga MX Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Toluca | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:3 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Pachuca | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:2 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Club America | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Atlas | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6:5 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Mazatlan FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:1 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Santos Laguna | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5:4 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Tigres UANL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Necaxa | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:4 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Atl. San Luis | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Club Leon | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Club Tijuana | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:3 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | Monterrey | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1:3 | -2 | 3 |
| 13 | Cruz Azul | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3:3 | 0 | 2 |
| 14 | Juarez | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Guadalajara Chivas | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Puebla | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3:5 | -2 | 0 |
| 17 | Queretaro | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1:4 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | UNAM Pumas | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2:6 | -4 | 0 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )
